Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(624)
- Faculty Publications (158)
- October 2012 (Revised April 2017)
- Case
Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth
By: Laura Alfaro, Hilary White and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details
- August 2012 (Revised November 2017)
- Case
Turkey—A Work in Progress?
For the past 10 years, Turkey has grown its real GDP at about 6% annually. This came after a huge debt crisis in 2001-02, wherein Turkey had to borrow $16 billion more from the IMF and comport with its difficult conditionality. Today, Turkey is a middle-income country,... View Details
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
- Article
Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
- June 2011
- Teaching Note
The Suzlon Edge (TN)
Teaching Note for 708051. View Details
- June 2011
- Case
Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises
By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
- April 2011 (Revised February 2013)
- Background Note
How Government Debt Accumulates
By: Dante Roscini and Jonathan Schlefer
This note discusses the economics of government-debt accumulation. Fiscal deficits are only part of the picture; other factors include the level of debt as a percent of nominal GDP; the interest rate; the inflation rate; the growth rate; and changes in the exchange... View Details
- April 2011 (Revised May 2013)
- Case
South Africa (A): Stuck in the Middle?
By: Richard H. K. Vietor and Diego Comin
Fifteen years after ending apartheid, formal unemployment in South Africa was still at 24%. While the country had grown at 4 to 5% annually during the 2000s, the financial crisis set it back by 1 million more unemployed. Moreover, it seemed as if the nation were stuck... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Policy; Employment; Wages; Competition; South Africa
- April 2011 (Revised December 2012)
- Supplement
South Africa (B): Getting Unstuck?
By: Richard H. K. Vietor and Diego Comin
15 years after ending apartheid, formal unemployment in South Africa was still at 24%. While the country had grown at 4 to 5% annually during the 2000s, the financial crisis set it back by 1 million more unemployed. Moreover, it seemed as if the nation were stuck... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Policy; Employment; Wages; Competition; South Africa
- March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Case
Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?
By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner
Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question? View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Asset Management; Investment; Price Bubble; Policy; Risk Management
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
- February 2011
- Article
Bounded Ethicality in Negotiations
By: Max Bazerman
Routine and persistent acts of dishonesty prevail in everyday life, yet most people resist shining a critical moral light on their own behavior, thereby maintaining and oftentimes inflating images of themselves as moral individuals. We overview the psychology that... View Details
- Article
Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception
By: Zoe Chance, Michael I. Norton, Francesca Gino and Dan Ariely
Researchers have documented many cases in which individuals rationalize their regrettable actions. Four experiments examine situations in which people go beyond merely explaining away their misconduct to actively deceiving themselves. We find that those who exploit... View Details
- December 2010
- Article
Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details
- June 2010
- Article
Correspondence Bias in Performance Evaluation: Why Grade Inflation Works
By: D. A. Moore, S. A. Swift, Z. S. Sharek and F. Gino
- 2010
- Chapter
The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno
This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,... View Details
- January 2010 (Revised October 2010)
- Case
Colombia: Strong Fundamentals, Global Risk
By: Aldo Musacchio, Richard H. K. Vietor, Jonathan Schlefer and Carolina Camacho
By mid-2009 Colombian President Alvaro Uribe had ended decades of virtual civil war and strengthened the business climate, but he faced tough economic challenges. Though he had instituted prominent market reforms and brought inflation down sharply, Colombia seemed... View Details
- March 2009 (Revised May 2013)
- Supplement
Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (B)
By: Laura Alfaro and Akiko Kanno
Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, faced a complex situation in the fall of 2007. An economic recovery had allowed the central bank to abandon its zero interest rate policy, which had been in place for years, and raise rates to 0.5%. The Bank of Japan was... View Details
- 2009
- Other Unpublished Work
Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises
By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
- Article
Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
By: John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller and Luis M. Viceira