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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,262)
- News (504)
- Research (2,482)
- Events (39)
- Multimedia (17)
- Faculty Publications (1,591)
- 01 Sep 2005
- News
Predictable Surprises
Administration at HBS and is also formally affiliated with Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, Psychology Department, Center on the Environment, and Program on Negotiation. View Details
- January 1977 (Revised July 1985)
- Case
Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)
Wheelwright, Steven C. "Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)." Harvard Business School Case 677-150, January 1977. (Revised July 1985.)
- July – August 2008
- Article
Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
- 2011
- Chapter
The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly
By: George Serafeim
Serafeim, George. "The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly." Chap. 3 in The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies: Translating Market Inefficiencies into Effective Investment Strategies, edited by Len Zacks, 63–91. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
- May 2007
- Case
Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials
Explores the process and inputs behind financial and operational forecasting in the Electronic Specialty Materials unit at Air Products and Chemicals, a global chemical company. The protagonist, John Goldberg, grapples with how to better integrate the two forecasting... View Details
Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Supply and Industry; Finance; Chemical Industry
Kulp, Susan L., Taylor Randall, Shoshanah Cohen, and Zahra Kanji. "Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials." Harvard Business School Case 107-018, May 2007.
- 12 Mar 2013
- News
Surefire Predictions and Why Doomsayers are Wrong
- 18 Mar 2011
- News
Better Retail Performance Predictions
- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
- April 2010
- Supplement
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
- 09 Jan 2014
- Research & Ideas
The Entrepreneurs Who Invented Economic Forecasting
In the severe economic, social, and scientific turbulence churning at the dawn of the twentieth century, people were eager for any semblance of stability and predictability. From this need for certainty... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne
- November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion." Harvard Business School Case 502-045, November 2001. (Revised September 2002.)
- October 1992 (Revised September 1993)
- Case
L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management
L.L. Bean must make stocking decisions on thousands of items sold through its catalogs. In many cases, orders must be placed with vendors twelve or more weeks before a catalog lands on a customer's doorstep, and commitments cannot be changed thereafter. As a result,... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Cost Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Demand and Consumers; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Retail Industry; United States
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management." Harvard Business School Case 893-003, October 1992. (Revised September 1993.)
- 01 Nov 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning
- January 1978
- Background Note
Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package." Harvard Business School Background Note 178-095, January 1978.
- January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)." Harvard Business School Case 506-050, January 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
- August 2018
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)." Harvard Business School Case 519-018, August 2018.
- 24 Sep 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts
- 28 Sep 2012
- News
The predictability principle
- January 2010
- Journal Article
A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description
By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere
Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition
Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West, and Christian Lebiere. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
- 2010
- Working Paper
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation
Ruback, Richard S. "Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-036, October 2010.