Publications

May 2007
Case

Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials

Explores the process and inputs behind financial and operational forecasting in the Electronic Specialty Materials unit at Air Products and Chemicals, a global chemical company. The protagonist, John Goldberg, grapples with how to better integrate the two forecasting... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Supply and Industry; Finance; Chemical Industry

21 Jul 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Keywords: by Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton

October 1992 (Revised September 1993)
Case

L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

L.L. Bean must make stocking decisions on thousands of items sold through its catalogs. In many cases, orders must be placed with vendors twelve or more weeks before a catalog lands on a customer's doorstep, and commitments cannot be changed thereafter. As a result,... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Cost Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Demand and Consumers; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Retail Industry; United States

13 Apr 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting

Keywords: by Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur & Ananth Raman; Retail

02 Oct 2009
News

Making Time Off Required and Predictable

Keywords: Professor Leslie Perlow; Management

18 Mar 2011
News

Better Retail Performance Predictions

July – August 2008
Article

Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman

We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness

November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion

By: John T. Gourville

One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)

By: John T. Gourville

One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

Article

Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy

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09 Jan 2014
Research & Ideas

The Entrepreneurs Who Invented Economic Forecasting

In the severe economic, social, and scientific turbulence churning at the dawn of the twentieth century, people were eager for any semblance of stability and predictability. From this need for certainty... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

April 2010
Supplement

Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham

Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Demand and Consumers; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return

24 Sep 2008
Working Paper Summaries

CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts

Keywords: by Rick Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal & Suraj Srinivasan

January 1978
Background Note

Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

2010
Working Paper

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

By: Richard S. Ruback

This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation

Article

Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability

By: Mark Seasholes and Terrence Hendershott

This paper examines the trading behavior of two groups of liquidity providers (specialists and competing market makers) using a six-year panel of NYSE data. Trades of each group are negatively correlated with contemporaneous price changes. To test for return... View Details

Keywords: Liquidity; Market Makers; Market Efficiency; Inventory; Liquidity Provision; Market Design; Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Investment Return

June 2012
Article

Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit