Publications

January 2011
Case

The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research

By: Suraj Srinivasan and David Lane

The case describes the Risk-Reward framework that Morgan Stanley analysts use as a systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about a company rather than the traditional single point estimates. The goal of the framework is to focus the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Business Processes; Research; Valuation

23 Jan 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Cost of Capital Dynamics Implied by Firm Fundamentals

Keywords: by Matthew Lyle & Charles C.Y. Wang

15 May 2007
First Look

First Look: May 15, 2007

model produces unbiased, out-of-sample forecasts of abnormal returns for firms being added to the S&P 500 index. Download the paper: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=934193 The... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

February 2023
Supplement

Coats Dyehouse Management

By: Willy C. Shih

Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia

20 Oct 2011
Research & Ideas

Getting the Marketing Mix Right

to the effectiveness of their marketing instruments” Thomas J. Steenburgh, an associate professor in the Marketing Unit at Harvard Business School, has developed a new analytical tool that more accurately measures the effectiveness of various marketing efforts. He... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

Fourth Quarter 2007
Article

Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

Find at Harvard

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

SSRN

23 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

improve the forecasts of arrivals at the immigration and security areas. When compared to several benchmarks, our model is shown to be more accurate in both point forecasting... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

Research Summary

Supply Chain Inventory Planning

My work studies management decision-making in demand and supply planning contexts with a focus on forecasting and inventory planning decisions. I examine these decision-making processes from both a supply chain (i.e. across firm) and an... View Details

March–April 2023
Article

Market Segmentation Trees

By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis

Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market... View Details

Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing

March 2022
Article

Where to Locate COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Facilities?

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Michael Lingzhi Li and Alessandro Previero

The outbreak of COVID-19 led to a record-breaking race to develop a vaccine. However, the limited vaccine capacity creates another massive challenge: how to distribute vaccines to mitigate the near-end impact of the pandemic? In the United States in particular, the new... View Details

Keywords: Vaccines; COVID-19; Health Care and Treatment; Health Pandemics; Performance Effectiveness; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods

June 2021
Article

From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science

February 2018 (Revised December 2020)
Case

People Analytics at Teach For America (A)

By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley

As of mid-2016, national nonprofit Teach For America (TFA) had struggled with three consecutive years of declining application totals, and senior management was re-examining the organization's strategy, including recruitment and selection. A few months earlier, former... View Details

Keywords: Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

October 2002 (Revised January 2013)
Case

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts

By: Paul M. Healy

Krispy Kreme is a rapidly growing firm with a business model that has excited Wall Street. View Details

Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Reporting; Performance Evaluation; Business Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; New York (city, NY)

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction

2011
Working Paper

The Flexible Substitution Logit: Uncovering Category Expansion and Share Impacts of Marketing Instruments

By: Qiang Liu, Thomas J. Steenburgh and Sachin Gupta

Different instruments are relevant for different marketing objectives (category demand expansion or market share stealing). To help brand managers make informed marketing mix decisions, it is essential that marketing mix models appropriately measure the different... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods