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2022
Working Paper

Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo

We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and... View Details

Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry

Article

Innovations in Retail Operations: Thirty Years of Lessons from Production and Operations Management

By: Marshall Fisher and Ananth Raman

We review papers published in Production and Operations Management (POM) during its thirty-year history that deal with retail operations issues with an empirical approach. The papers span a range of issues, from traditional ones like forecasting and inventory... View Details

Keywords: RFID; Innovation and Invention; Technology Adoption; Operations; E-commerce; Strategy; Retail Industry

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October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

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2022
Working Paper

The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman

We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period.... View Details

Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry

Winter 2022
Article

Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton

The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business

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May 2022
Supplement

Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais

Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details

May 2022
Supplement

Maestro Pizza (C): Taking the Fight Outside

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais

Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details

May 2022
Case

Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais

Maestro Pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details

April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

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April 2022
Article

Predictable Financial Crises

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

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March 2022
Case

Auto Mag (Abridged)

By: David E. Bell

A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to... View Details

Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
Case

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

March 2022
Supplement

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

March 2022
Article

Where to Locate COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Facilities?

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Michael Lingzhi Li and Alessandro Previero

The outbreak of COVID-19 led to a record-breaking race to develop a vaccine. However, the limited vaccine capacity creates another massive challenge: how to distribute vaccines to mitigate the near-end impact of the pandemic? In the United States in particular, the new... View Details

Keywords: Vaccines; COVID-19; Health Care and Treatment; Health Pandemics; Performance Effectiveness; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods

February 2022 (Revised January 2024)
Supplement

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (C)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting—and... View Details

Keywords: Restructuring; Talent and Talent Management; Compensation and Benefits; Growth and Development Strategy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Performance Evaluation; Motivation and Incentives; Consulting Industry

January 2022 (Revised January 2024)
Case

ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen

Founder-CEO of one of India’s largest clean energy companies, ReNew Power, which develops, builds, and operates utility-scale wind and solar energy projects, has to decide the way forward for the company as the country and the world stand poised at the cusp of an... View Details

Keywords: Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Energy Sources; Entrepreneurship; Private Equity; Initial Public Offering; Forecasting and Prediction; Trends; Transformation; Private Ownership; Environmental Sustainability; Energy Industry; India; Asia

January 2022
Case

Tomorrow.io Goes to Space

By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Abhishek Nagaraj and James Barnett

This case study explores the evolution of Tomorrow.io, a weather forecasting technology company, as it pivoted toward building and launching space-based weather radar satellites. This strategic shift was driven by the company's ambition to overcome data limitations in... View Details

Keywords: Communication; Competency and Skills; Engineering; Globalization; Innovation and Invention; Performance; Information Technology; Aerospace Industry

January 2022
Technical Note

Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk

This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this... View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Financial Management; Financing and Loans

January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
Module Note

Analysis of Financial and Non-Financial Information for Forecasting Performance

By: Charles C.Y. Wang

This note describes the main themes and cases of a teaching module on the analysis of information from, and outside of, financial statements for forecasting firms’ future financial performance. The module’s pedagogical goal is to deepen students’ understanding of the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Reporting; Performance; Analysis; Valuation; Accounting; Finance

January 2022
Background Note

Residual Income Valuation Model

By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Albert Shin

This note explains the residual income valuation model (RIM), how it relates to "traditional" valuation models, the intuition behind its use, and empirical research related to its value relevance. RIM is theoretically equivalent to the dividend discount model and the... View Details

Keywords: Residual Income Valuation; Valuation; Research; Theory; Measurement and Metrics; Performance; Financial Management; Business Strategy

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