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- All HBS Web (186)
- Faculty Publications (140)
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- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- August 2010 (Revised November 2010)
- Supplement
Cosmeticos de Espana, S.A. (C)
By: David F. Hawkins
The third case in the Cosmeticos de Espana case series. What should management's accounting response be to a further devaluation of the Bolivar? View Details
Keywords: Financial Statements; Decision Choices and Conditions; Inflation and Deflation; Currency Exchange Rate; Beauty and Cosmetics Industry; Spain; Venezuela
Hawkins, David F. "Cosmeticos de Espana, S.A. (C)." Harvard Business School Supplement 111-021, August 2010. (Revised November 2010.)
- July 2017
- Article
Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Experiment; Rational Inattention; Supermarkets; Macroeconomics; Household; Inflation and Deflation; Policy
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
- December 1999 (Revised November 2010)
- Background Note
Inflation Accounting and Analysis
By: David F. Hawkins
Describes alternative approaches to accounting for business activities during periods of inflation. Presents hints and techniques for analyzing financial statements during inflationary periods. A rewritten version of an earlier note. View Details
Hawkins, David F. "Inflation Accounting and Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 100-063, December 1999. (Revised November 2010.)
- January 2004 (Revised June 2004)
- Case
Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (A)
By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton
In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details
Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Debt Securities; Risk Management; Bonds; Investment Portfolio; Capital Markets; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Innovation and Invention; United States
Froot, Kenneth A., Peter A. Hecht, and Christopher Edward James Payton. "Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (A)." Harvard Business School Case 204-112, January 2004. (Revised June 2004.)
- January 2008 (Revised April 2009)
- Case
Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (A)
By: Laura Alfaro and Akiko Kanno
Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, faced a complex situation in the fall of 2007. An economic recovery had allowed the central bank to abandon its zero interest rate policy, which had been in place for years, and raise rates to 0.5%. The Bank of Japan was... View Details
Alfaro, Laura, and Akiko Kanno. "Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (A)." Harvard Business School Case 708-017, January 2008. (Revised April 2009.)
- June 2003
- Article
Thinking Real: Key to Financial Analysis in Deflationary Periods
By: David Hawkins
Hawkins, David. "Thinking Real: Key to Financial Analysis in Deflationary Periods." Accounting Bulletin, no. 119 (June 2003).
- July 1997
- Case
Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS)
Explores the development of a new product offering based on the first issuance of "real" bonds in the United States. Looks at a specific organization's efforts to position itself to profit from this market development. Follows naturally from a case on nominal bonds. View Details
Das, Sanjiv R., and Jeffrey T. Slovin. "Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS)." Harvard Business School Case 298-017, July 1997.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Fiscal Policy under Convex Supply Curves
By: Shlok Goyal, Avi Lipton and Borui Niklas Zhu
Recent empirical evidence suggests that supply curves are convex. Supply curve convexity is at odds with conventional Phillips curves, which rely on an infinitely elastic underlying supply curve. This paper explores the effect of supply curve convexity on the... View Details
Keywords: Fiscal Stimulus; Fiscal Policy; Inflation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Policy; Mathematical Methods; United States
Goyal, Shlok, Avi Lipton, and Borui Niklas Zhu. "Fiscal Policy under Convex Supply Curves." Working Paper, August 2024.
- February 1990
- Article
Inflation and Taxation with Optimizing Governments
By: J. J. Rotemberg and James Poterba
Rotemberg, J. J., and James Poterba. "Inflation and Taxation with Optimizing Governments." Journal of Money, Credit & Banking 22 (February 1990): 1–19.
- April 2011 (Revised December 2012)
- Supplement
South Africa (B): Getting Unstuck?
By: Richard H. K. Vietor and Diego Comin
15 years after ending apartheid, formal unemployment in South Africa was still at 24%. While the country had grown at 4 to 5% annually during the 2000s, the financial crisis set it back by 1 million more unemployed. Moreover, it seemed as if the nation were stuck... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Policy; Employment; Wages; Competition; South Africa
Vietor, Richard H. K., and Diego Comin. "South Africa (B): Getting Unstuck?" Harvard Business School Supplement 711-085, April 2011. (Revised December 2012.)
- Article
L'autodiscipline en guise de régulation. La stratégie patronale à l'heure de la surchauffe économique en Suisse autour de 1960
By: Sabine Pitteloud
Die Strategie der Unternehmensverbände zur Bekämpfung der konjunkturellen «Überhitzung» um 1960 Sabine Pitteloud interessiert sich für den Versuch, privatwirtschaftliche Antworten auf die Teuerung der 1960er-Jahre zu finden. Arbeitgeber und Gewerkschaften waren sich... View Details
Keywords: Inflation; Regulation; Business ＆ Government Relations; Inflation and Deflation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Business and Government Relations; Labor Unions; Switzerland
Pitteloud, Sabine. "L'autodiscipline en guise de régulation. La stratégie patronale à l'heure de la surchauffe économique en Suisse autour de 1960." Traverse: Zeitschrift für Geschichte = Revue d'histoire 24, no. 3 (2017).
- 29 May 2006
- What Do You Think?
How Important Is the “Service Sector Effect” on Productivity?
sides can't win, with better service and more satisfied employees." On the other hand, E. Hassen cautioned, that "Before criticizing, we should examine carefully the social sector effects of wage deflation and higher... View Details
- 27 Sep 2024
- Research & Ideas
Charting 'Cheapflation': How Budget Brands Got So Pricey
Surging inflation drove many consumers to cheaper brands or lower-quality products, but new data suggests that switching might not have saved them as much as they might have expected. During the most recent period of high inflation, prices of the least expensive... View Details
Keywords: by Ana Elena Azpúrua
- 2023
- Working Paper
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
- June 2010
- Article
Correspondence Bias in Performance Evaluation: Why Grade Inflation Works
By: D. A. Moore, S. A. Swift, Z. S. Sharek and F. Gino
Moore, D. A., S. A. Swift, Z. S. Sharek, and F. Gino. "Correspondence Bias in Performance Evaluation: Why Grade Inflation Works." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 36, no. 6 (June 2010): 843–852.
- Article
Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
By: John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller and Luis M. Viceira
Campbell, John Y., Robert J. Shiller, and Luis M. Viceira. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2009): 79–120.
- May 2023
- Case
Uruguay: South America's Singapore?
By: Richard Vietor
Uruguay, the richest country in Latin America and the only one that has not turned to the left, suffers from slow growth, high inflation and a weak education system. President Lacrolle Pou has two more years in office to reform these problems. View Details
- 2009
- Working Paper
Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
A model is considered where firms internalize the regret costs that consumers experience when they see an unexpected price change. Regret costs are assumed to be increasing in the size of price changes and this can explain why the size of price increases is less... View Details
- March–April 2023
- Article
Case Study: Should a Dollar Store Raise Prices to Keep Up with Inflation?
By: Jill Avery and Marco Bertini
How should a dollar store maintain its brand and price position in the marketplace in the face of rising inflation? Is holding a $1.00 price point still viable in today's marketplace? In this fictional case, managers face inflationary pressures and must decide whether... View Details
Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Retailing; Discount Retailing; Discount Store; Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Inflation and Deflation; Retail Industry; United States
Avery, Jill, and Marco Bertini. "Case Study: Should a Dollar Store Raise Prices to Keep Up with Inflation?" Harvard Business Review 101, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 140–144.