Publications

26 Aug 2002
Research & Ideas

High-Stakes Decision Making: The Lessons of Mount Everest

that day hold lessons, some of them for business managers. Roberto's new working paper describes how. Here follows an excerpt from "Lessons From Everest: The Interaction of Cognitive Bias, Psychological Safety, and System Complexity." Implications For Leaders... View Details

Keywords: by Michael A. Roberto

2010
Working Paper

The Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services: An Economic Analysis

By: Mohammad Arzaghi, Ernst R. Berndt, James C. Davis and Alvin J. Silk

We address a longstanding puzzle surrounding the unbundling of services occurring over several decades in the U.S. advertising agency industry: What accounts for the shift from bundling to unbundling of services and the slow pace of change? Using Evans and Salinger's... View Details

Keywords: Advertising; Change; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Marketing Strategy; Media; Service Operations; Agency Theory; Mathematical Methods; Advertising Industry; United States

2013
Book

Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Paul M. Healy

This book provides a framework for business analysis and has been used by business schools throughout the world. It provides a foundation for analysis using four key steps: 1) Strategy analysis: Identifying a firm's strategy and understanding sources of its competitive... View Details

Keywords: Governance; Debt Securities; Valuation; Performance Evaluation; Financial Statements; Credit; Business Ventures; Strategy; Financial Condition; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction

Purchase

15 Oct 2001
Research & Ideas

What You Don’t Know About Making Decisions

Unfortunately, superior decision making is distressingly difficult to assess in real time. Successful outcomes—decisions of high quality, made in a timely manner and implemented effectively—can be evaluated only after the fact. But by the... View Details

Keywords: by David A. Garvin & Michael A. Roberto

Article

Pitfall or Scaffolding? Starting-point Pull in Configuration Decision Making

By: Eliran Halali, Yoella Bereby-Meyer and David Leiser

In configuration problems, such as the construction of a weekly study schedule, decision makers must assemble a combination of parts under a set of constraints. Interactions may be present between the parts, and more than a single objective function may exist, such as... View Details

Research Summary

Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis

By: Laura Alfaro

In recent decades, advances in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led firms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing firms worldwide is the... View Details

April 2019
Article

Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis

By: Laura Alfaro, Pol Antràs, Davin Chor and Paola Conconi

In recent decades, advances in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led firms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing firms worldwide is the... View Details

Keywords: Global Value Chains; Sequential Production; Incomplete Contracts; Demand and Consumers; Customer Value and Value Chain; Globalization

2017
Working Paper

Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis

By: Laura Alfaro, Pol Antràs, Davin Chor and Paola Conconi

In recent decades, advances in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led firms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing firms worldwide is the... View Details

Keywords: Global Value Chains; Sequential Production; Incomplete Contracts; Demand and Consumers; Customer Value and Value Chain; Globalization

February 2010 (Revised May 2010)
Supplement

Bardhaman (B): Bengal Shrachi and the Township Design Decision

By: John D. Macomber and Viraal Balsari

A real estate developer in West Bengal chooses between two master plans for a 260 acre new township considering design, financing, and phasing. Two detailed master plans are considered, one with a radial design and an internal town square and one with a grid design and... View Details

Keywords: Urban Development; Construction; Design; Finance; Construction Industry; Real Estate Industry; West Bengal

Purchase

22 Oct 2019
News

When It’s OK to Trust Your Gut on a Big Decision

13 Aug 2009
Working Paper Summaries

In Favor of Clear Thinking: Incorporating Moral Rules into a Wise Cost-Benefit Analysis

Keywords: by Max H. Bazerman & Joshua D. Greene

Web

Strategic Financial Analysis Online Course | HBS Online

Exercise Map the connections between strategic decisions and impacts on financial metrics, including amortization changes and capital investments 8-10 hrs Module 2 Assessing Strategy Execution Use financial ratio View Details

30 Aug 2018
Blog Post

My Difficult Decision to Leave Google for HBS

apply came from talking to HBS alumni. While each individual had unique experiences and found varying degrees of career success, not one regretted the decision to attend. I never detected a single trace of regret. That might not be the... View Details

04 Jun 2021
News

When an Educated Guess Beats Data Analysis

2018
Working Paper

Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future

By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose

The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details

Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis

SSRN

Article

Managing the Unknowable: The Effectiveness of Early-stage Investor Gut Feel in Entrepreneurial Investment Decisions

By: Laura Huang and Jone L. Pearce

Using an inductive theory-development study, a field experiment, and a longitudinal field test, we examine early-stage entrepreneurial investment decision making under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Building on existing literature on decision making and risk in... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making; Emotions; Performance Effectiveness

02 Mar 2011
Research & Ideas

Managing the Open Source vs. Proprietary Decision

differences in the cost components are not as sharply different as we would have assumed. Therefore it is important to do a precise analysis adapted to each specific case. The appropriate mixture between open and proprietary software will... View Details

Keywords: by Josh Lerner & Mark Schankerman; Technology

2012
Article

The Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services: An Economic Analysis

By: Mohammad Arzaghi, Ernst R. Berndt, James C. Davis and Alvin J. Silk

We address a puzzle surrounding the shift from bundling to unbundling of U.S. advertising agency services and the slow pace of change over several decades. We model an agency’s decision as a tradeoff between the fixed cost to the advertiser of establishing a... View Details

Keywords: Bundling; Unbundling; Advertising Agency Services; Fixed Cost; Higher Media Prices; Volume; Diversification; Advertising; Change; Advertising Industry; United States

January 2013
Case

Brannigan Foods: Strategic Marketing Planning

By: John A. Quelch and James T. Kindley

The soup division at Brannigan Foods contributes over 40% of the firm's revenue. The general manager is concerned that the soup industry is declining and that the soup division shows declining profits and market share, especially among the important baby boomer... View Details

Keywords: United States; Consumer Marketing; Acquisitions; Forecasting; Quantitative Analysis; Risk Management; Decision Making; Budgeting; Supermarkets; Strategic Planning; Demand and Consumers; Marketing Strategy; Food; Resource Allocation; Acquisition; Product Development; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry