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    • All HBS Web  (1,176)
      • Faculty Publications  (276)

      Decision AnalysisRemove Decision Analysis →

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      • April 2020 (Revised June 2022)
      • Technical Note

      Quantitative Analysis in Marketing

      By: Sunil Gupta
      Marketing is a combination of art and science that requires both qualitative and quantitative analysis to arrive at effective decisions. This note highlights how quantitative analysis can help in the following marketing decisions: estimating market size, determining... View Details
      Keywords: Quantitative Analysis; Marketing; Decision Making; Analysis
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      Gupta, Sunil. "Quantitative Analysis in Marketing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 520-091, April 2020. (Revised June 2022.)
      • January 2020
      • Case

      Hurtigruten: Sailing into Warm Water?

      By: Jan W. Rivkin and Kerry Herman
      As this case opens in 2019, CEO Daniel Skjeldam and his team have successfully reinvigorated Hurtigruten, a storied but struggling Norwegian ferry and cruise operator, and have established it as the leading provider of polar expedition cruises. They now face a critical... View Details
      Keywords: Relative Cost Analysis; Market Attractiveness; Diversification; Decision Making; Expansion; Tourism Industry; Norway
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      Rivkin, Jan W., and Kerry Herman. "Hurtigruten: Sailing into Warm Water?" Harvard Business School Case 720-410, January 2020.
      • November 2019
      • Article

      When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber and Eric J. Johnson
      When people make decisions with a pre-selected choice option—a “default”—they are more likely to select that option. Because defaults are easy to implement, they constitute one of the most widely employed tools in the choice architecture toolbox. However, to decide... View Details
      Keywords: Choice Architecture; Defaults; Default Effects; Decision Making; Behavior; Analysis
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber, and Eric J. Johnson. "When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects." Behavioural Public Policy 3, no. 2 (November 2019): 159–186.
      • 2019
      • White Paper

      Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy

      By: George Serafeim, T. Robert Zochowski and Jennifer Downing
      Reimagining capitalism is an imperative. We need to create a more inclusive and sustainable form of capitalism that works for every person and the planet. Massive environmental damage, growing income and wealth disparity, stress, and depression within developed... View Details
      Keywords: Impact-Weighted Accounts; IWAI; Background; Economic Systems; Economy; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Measurement and Metrics; Financial Statements
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      Serafeim, George, T. Robert Zochowski, and Jennifer Downing. "Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy." White Paper, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, September 2019.
      • August 2019 (Revised October 2019)
      • Case

      Amandla Capital: Real Estate in Côte d‘Ivoire

      By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Dilyana Botha
      This case describes Amandla Capital, a fledgling company in Cote d’Ivoire, facing three opportunities in the real estate and hospitality industries in Africa. It introduces students to several concepts: decision-making and cost-benefit analysis in real estate,... View Details
      Keywords: Small Business; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost vs Benefits; Finance; Assets; Asset Management; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Project Finance; Relationships
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      Macomber, John D., Pippa Tubman Armerding, and Dilyana Botha. "Amandla Capital: Real Estate in Côte d‘Ivoire." Harvard Business School Case 220-029, August 2019. (Revised October 2019.)
      • August 2019
      • Case

      The United States and Russia: Gas Rivals in Europe?

      By: Rawi Abdelal, Galit Goldstein and Paul Apostolicas
      Though the shale revolution transformed the U.S. into the largest producer of petroleum products, it was unclear how much success American exporters would find selling liquefied natural gas on the European energy market. Gazprom, the state-controlled Russian energy... View Details
      Keywords: Gas Pipelines; Natural Gas; LNG; Strategic Analysis; Strategic Behavior; Energy Markets; Entrepreneurial Financing; Entrepreneurial Risk; Entrepreneurial Ventures; Entrepreneurial Selling; Energy; Energy Sources; Entrepreneurship; Market Entry and Exit; Marketing Strategy; Price; Energy Industry; Russia; United States; Europe; European Union
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      Abdelal, Rawi, Galit Goldstein, and Paul Apostolicas. "The United States and Russia: Gas Rivals in Europe?" Harvard Business School Case 720-006, August 2019.
      • July 2019
      • Case

      Christmas Inc. (A)

      By: Susanna Gallani, Gregory Sabin, Lexor Adams and Nicholas Haberling
      Santa Claus is facing increasing pressures to contain costs. The economic model that has worked for centuries is starting to show some cracks, to the point that he is considering outsourcing part of its toy production. Evaluating the bids his team collected from... View Details
      Keywords: Costing; Production; Cost; Analysis; Decision Making; Strategy
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      Gallani, Susanna, Gregory Sabin, Lexor Adams, and Nicholas Haberling. "Christmas Inc. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-009, July 2019.
      • April 2019
      • Article

      Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis

      By: Laura Alfaro, Pol Antràs, Davin Chor and Paola Conconi
      In recent decades, advances in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led firms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing firms worldwide is the... View Details
      Keywords: Global Value Chains; Sequential Production; Incomplete Contracts; Demand and Consumers; Customer Value and Value Chain; Globalization
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      Alfaro, Laura, Pol Antràs, Davin Chor, and Paola Conconi. "Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis." Journal of Political Economy 127, no. 2 (April 2019): 508–559. (See Online Appendix. Replications files available here. Also NBER Working Paper 21582.)
      • March 2019
      • Case

      HOPI: Turkey's Shopping Companion

      By: Sunil Gupta, Donald Ngwe and Gamze Yucaoglu
      The case opens in 2017 as Onur Erbay, CEO of HOPI, a multi-vendor loyalty platform, is contemplating a critical decision. The case chronicles the origins of Boyner Group, the parent company of HOPI and a major retailer in Turkey, and development of retail and customer... View Details
      Keywords: Loyalty Programs; Multi-vendor Platform; Retail; Big Data; Customer Relationship Management; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Business Model; Analytics and Data Science; Competitive Strategy; Decision Making; Applications and Software; Digital Platforms; Technology Industry; Retail Industry; Turkey
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      Gupta, Sunil, Donald Ngwe, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "HOPI: Turkey's Shopping Companion." Harvard Business School Case 519-057, March 2019.
      • 2019
      • Book

      The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power

      By: Shoshana Zuboff
      In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Profiling; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Power and Influence; Ethics; Society; Transformation
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      Zuboff, Shoshana. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. New York: PublicAffairs, 2019.
      • Article

      The Strategy in Competitive Interactions

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      This paper reviews, discusses, and expands the “core guidance” definition of strategy as “the smallest set of choices to optimally guide (or force) other choices.” It first discusses what this definition contributes to the existing proposed definitions. It then... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy Formulation; Strategy Definition; Strategy; Competition; Analysis; Competitive Strategy; Decision Making
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "The Strategy in Competitive Interactions." Strategy Science 3, no. 4 (December 2018): 574–591.
      • Article

      Optimality Bias in Moral Judgment

      By: Julian De Freitas and Samuel G.B. Johnson
      We often make decisions with incomplete knowledge of their consequences. Might people nonetheless expect others to make optimal choices, despite this ignorance? Here, we show that people are sensitive to moral optimality: that people hold moral agents accountable... View Details
      Keywords: Moral Judgment; Lay Decision Theory; Theory Of Mind; Causal Attribution; Moral Sensibility; Decision Making
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      De Freitas, Julian, and Samuel G.B. Johnson. "Optimality Bias in Moral Judgment." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 79 (November 2018): 149–163.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Machine Learning for Pattern Discovery in Management Research

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury
      Supervised machine learning (ML) methods are a powerful toolkit for discovering robust patterns in quantitative data. The patterns identified by ML could be used as an observation for further inductive or abductive research, but should not be treated as the result of a... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Theory Building; Induction; Decision Trees; Random Forests; K-nearest Neighbors; Neural Network; P-hacking; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Ryan Allen, and Michael G. Endres. "Machine Learning for Pattern Discovery in Management Research." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-032, September 2018. (Revised June 2020.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Case

      Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)." Harvard Business School Case 119-025, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-026, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Case

      LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 119-020, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) case. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds two tree-based models using historical LendingClub data to predict, with some probability, whether borrower will repay or default on his loan.
      ... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Decision Trees; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-021, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details
      Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-022, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • Article

      Raiffa Transformed the Field of Negotiation—and Me

      By: Max Bazerman
      Howard Raiffa was a role model, friend, and inspiration. He transformed the field of negotiation, and he transformed my career. This brief article provides a recollection of how Howard revolutionized the field of negotiation and how those insights are now affecting... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation; Decision Making; Analysis; Game Theory; Personal Development and Career
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      Bazerman, Max. "Raiffa Transformed the Field of Negotiation—and Me." Negotiation and Conflict Management Research 11, no. 3 (August 2018): 259–261.
      • June 2018
      • Case

      American Airlines' Value Pricing (Abridged)

      By: Alvin J. Silk and Sunil Gupta
      This is an abridged version of the 1992 case where American Airlines (AA) launched "Value Pricing" in an attempt to simplify the pricing structure of the airline industry. AA expected that this plan would benefit not only consumers, but also AA and the entire airline... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Marketing; Market Segmentation; Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Demand Analysis; Competition; Marketing; Segmentation; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Analysis; Air Transportation Industry
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      Silk, Alvin J., and Sunil Gupta. "American Airlines' Value Pricing (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 519-019, June 2018.
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