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  • May 2011
  • Article

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric J. Van den Steen
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
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  • 07 Mar 2005
  • What Do You Think?

Should Business Management Be Regarded as a Profession?

Summing Up Many of this month's respondents appear to agree that business management is a profession, but certification will do little to influence its practice. Of course, we may have a bit of a response bias here, since respondents... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 03 May 2004
  • Research & Ideas

Business History around the World

class system, or an alleged "anti-industrial" bias of its social elite, or the post-1945 flirtation with socialism and extensive state intervention. We maintain that comparisons which use the United States as a benchmark can be... View Details
Keywords: by Cynthia Churchwell
  • 25 Apr 2018
  • Research & Ideas

We May Have Taken Too Much Credit for Easing Workplace Segregation

You also want to start when they’re young, with fewer workers, because it’s harder to desegregate a workforce of 1,000 people.” Koning says many firms intent on improving their hiring and promotion pipelines to reduce bias focus mostly on... View Details
Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman
  • 25 Oct 2004
  • Research & Ideas

Planning for Surprises

benefit. The area of decision bias has grown as an important lens of analysis in many areas of business, from finance to marketing to negotiations. We also believe that cognitive biases explain why we allow predictable surprises to occur.... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
  • 15 Nov 2024
  • News

Driving Change

what people say they believe; there are changes in attitudes, but not actual behaviors,” Chang said. “The largest consequence was encouraging junior women to be more proactive in their advancement because they got scared by the existence of gender View Details
  • 16 Aug 2024
  • In Practice

Election 2024: What's at Stake for Business and the Workplace?

credit analysts exhibit a sizable partisan gap in their economic outlook, with roughly two-thirds the size of the gap observed among households. This bias affects analysts’ decision to upgrade or downgrade corporate credit ratings,... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne
  • Web

Online Dynamic Teaming Course | HBS Online

dynamic teaming is and its importance Build skills to create psychological safety and foster inclusion Recognize and address unconscious, implicit, and affinity bias Improve team decision-making and communication through tested tools... View Details
  • November 2007
  • Case

Differences at Work: Alex (A)

By: Sandra J. Sucher and Rachel Gordon
At an interview for his dream job, Alex has been asked an inappropriate question by the interviewer. How will Alex handle the situation? Should he accept the position is offered? View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Behavior; Job Interviews; Ethics; Human Resources; Diversity; Power and Influence
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  • April 2021 (Revised April 2021)
  • Teaching Plan

Nehemiah Mfg. Co.: Providing a Second Chance

By: Brian Trelstad and John Masko
Teaching Plan for HBS Case No. 320-008. In 2009, Dan Meyer and Richard Palmer, two veterans of the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry, founded Nehemiah Manufacturing to build FMCG brands while providing jobs to Cincinnati, Ohio’s beleaguered urban core. Two... View Details
Keywords: Social Entrepreneurship; Retention; Selection and Staffing; Employment; Human Capital; Growth Management; Brands and Branding; Social Marketing; Mission and Purpose; Prejudice and Bias; City; Urban Scope; Consumer Products Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Ohio; United States
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  • 31 May 2023
  • Research & Ideas

With Predictive Analytics, Companies Can Tap the Ultimate Opportunity: Customers’ Routines

design—versus those who merely use the system from time to time. “Understanding patterns of behavior in transport could be super relevant for policymakers,” Ascarza says. You Might Also Like: When Bias Creeps into AI, Managers Can Stop It... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Transportation
  • 17 Jun 2014
  • First Look

First Look: June 17

feedback influence order quantities. We find that the portion of mismatch cost due to adjustment behavior exceeds the portion of mismatch cost due to level behavior in three out of four conditions. Observation bias is studied through... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 21 Jan 2014
  • First Look

First Look: January 21

feather flock together." In a series of simulations, we show that latent space coordinates significantly reduce bias in the estimate of social influence. The intuition is that latent coordinates act as proxy variables for hidden... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 17 Apr 2013
  • Research Event

Conference Challenges Gender Conventions

work," and that redesign must include management buy-in, Perlow said. William Bielby, of the University of Illinois at Chicago, ended the session, discussing the need for more complex and varied solutions to workplace gender bias... View Details
Keywords: by Maggie Starvish
  • 2012
  • Working Paper

When Performance Trumps Gender Bias: Joint versus Separate Evaluation

By: Iris Bohnet, Alexandra van Geen and Max H. Bazerman
We examine a new intervention to overcome gender biases in hiring, promotion, and job assignments: an "evaluation nudge," in which people are evaluated jointly rather than separately regarding their future performance. Evaluators are more likely to focus on individual... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Selection and Staffing; Behavior; Groups and Teams; Decision Making; Performance Evaluation; Gender
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  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

By: Richard S. Ruback
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation
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  • 23 Apr 2019
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, April 23, 2019

points daily. But it's hard to acquire new customer groups when algorithms have a bias to replicate the tastes on which they are trained. Purchase this case:https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/919413-PDF-ENG Harvard Business School Case... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 03 Jan 2018
  • What Do You Think?

In the Wake of #MeToo, Should Corporate Boards Hire Compliance Officers?

harassment, especially in the workplace, to our attention. High-profile accusations of gender bias and sexual harassment in Silicon Valley, in the worlds of entertainment, athletics, media, and government drew our attention to the issue.... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 25 Aug 2017
  • Op-Ed

Op-Ed: After Charlottesville, Where Does a CEO's Responsibility Lie?

supporting the Trump administration is unsustainable and that for many even neutrality will seem difficult or impossible. But that’s just my assessment, which is as likely to be a product of confirmation bias as anyone else’s. So the... View Details
Keywords: by Gautam Mukunda
  • 18 Apr 2018
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, April 18, 2018

beliefs. However, introducing some specificity and clarity to the standards of assessment (Experiment 1) or to the trait’s definition (Experiments 2 and 3) reduces or eliminates this bias in judgment. We find stronger support for a... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne