Forecast - Publications - Faculty & Research

25 Feb 2014
First Look

First Look: February 25

assess them optimistically. Furthermore, we find that more experienced analysts and higher-status brokerage houses are the first to shift the relation between CSR ratings and investment recommendation optimism. We find no significant link between firms' CSR ratings and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

21 Jan 2009
First Look

First Look: January 21, 2009

competitor to boost sales, become #1 in a niche market segment, and achieve economies of scale. He is struggling with whether the deal makes strategic sense given forecasts that this niche segment is declining, whether the price is too... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

26 Sep 2006
First Look

First Look: September 26, 2006

Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Returns Authors:Mark T. Bradshaw, Scott A. Richardson, and Richard G. Sloan Periodical:Journal of Accounting & Economics 42, no. 1&2 (October 2006): 53-85 Abstract We develop a comprehensive and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Feb 2013
First Look

First Look: Feb. 5

earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with central boards also experience higher future growth in return-on-assets (ROA) with analysts failing to fully reflect this information in their earnings forecasts. Return prediction, growth in ROA, and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

September 2004
Article

Trust in Agency

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell

Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details

Keywords: Trust; Agency Theory; Relationships; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts; Business Model; Emotions; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Standards; Risk and Uncertainty

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03 Jan 2007
First Look

First Look: January 3, 2007

Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. Sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993 and the company sold stock to the public for the first time. Analysts forecast higher earnings for 1993, then the... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

02 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 2, 2018

among them was a severe cash flow constraint that prevented Frederic Schreurs from properly forecasting and investing resources to maximize the BIP’s impact. As traffic inched along, Sanginga contemplated how he could steer both the BIP... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

19 Sep 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, September 19

company's crowdsourcing weather-forecasting service in Japan. It changed the face of weather forecasting in Japan. Bashi and LeStage wondered whether the experience could be applied to the U.S. market. Purchase this case:... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

03 Sep 2013
First Look

First Look: September 3

reverts faster in countries with less efficient governments. The findings suggest that country-level factors have an economically significant impact on the rate of corporate profitability mean reversion. The study has implications for View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

23 Jun 2009
First Look

First Look: June 23

attention to the returns of firms that do not issue at all, suggesting that issuance is partly an attempt to cater to broad time-varying patterns in characteristics mispricing. Our approach helps forecast returns to portfolios based on... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

January 2022
Technical Note

Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk

This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this... View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Financial Management; Financing and Loans

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Educators

Purchase

01 Dec 2015
First Look

December 1, 2015

standard forecasting regressions reveal that increases in p*t lead to economic downturns. Second, disaster risk is priced in the cross section of U.S. equity returns. A zero-cost equity portfolio with exposure to disasters earns... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

14 Nov 2017
First Look

New Research and Ideas: November 14, 2017

probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, can all help forecast an eventual crash and future returns; and (4) some of these characteristics can... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

01 Oct 2013
First Look

First Look: October 1

prepared a grave for NBC as the 2012 London Olympics approached. Indeed, critics created #NBCFail to characterize their expectations. Yet, as the Games wound down, it was NBC that was smiling. Their forecast had paid off. They found that... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

17 Mar 2009
First Look

First Look: March 17, 2009

that issuance is partly an attempt to arbitrage mispriced characteristics. Our approach helps forecast returns to portfolios based on book-to-market, size, price, distress, payout policy, profitability, and industry. Our results provide a... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

29 May 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, May 29, 2018

associated with a 0.5% increase in housing prices. Moreover, Yelp measures of local business activity provide leading indicators for housing price changes and help to forecast which neighborhoods are gentrifying. Publisher's link:... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

25 Jan 2011
First Look

First Look: Jan. 25

disproportionately affect the debt financing costs faced by low credit quality firms. As a result, time-series variation in the average quality of debt issuers may be useful for forecasting excess corporate bond returns. We show that when... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Sep 2007
First Look

First Look: September 5, 2007

or purchase decision will impact their financial statements, and how the market will react given previously forecast earnings and competitor's accounting. Purchase this case:... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

13 Sep 2011
First Look

First Look: September 13

with less efficient governments. The findings suggest that country-level factors have an economically significant impact on the rate of corporate profitability mean reversion. The study has implications for forecasting profitability and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

January 2025
Supplement

Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis (B)

By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan

Rick McCathron, CEO of Hippo, was optimistic about the InsurTech's path to profitability after navigating the financial uncertainties of 2022. By bundling their home insurance services with third-parties and established insurance incumbents, Hippo was adopting a... View Details

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First Look: February 25

First Look: January 21, 2009

First Look: September 26, 2006

First Look: Feb. 5

Trust in Agency

First Look: January 3, 2007

New Research and Ideas, October 2, 2018

First Look at New Research and Ideas, September 19

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First Look: June 23

Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

December 1, 2015

New Research and Ideas: November 14, 2017

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First Look: March 17, 2009

New Research and Ideas, May 29, 2018

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Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis (B)

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