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  • All HBS Web  (1,783)
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  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
  • 2010
  • Chapter

Leadership in a Globalizing World

By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter
In this chapter, world-renowned business expert, author, and Harvard Business School professor Rosabeth Moss Kanter asks the question, "Is leadership different in a globalizing world--one of broadening horizons and burgeoning sources of ideas and supplies--than in... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Globalized Firms and Management; Leadership; Research; Complexity; Diversity
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Kanter, Rosabeth Moss. "Leadership in a Globalizing World." Chap. 20 in Handbook of Leadership Theory and Practice, edited by Nitin Nohria and Rakesh Khurana. Harvard Business Press, 2010.
  • April 1992 (Revised February 1996)
  • Case

CFM International, Inc.

In April 1987 the management team of CFM International, Inc. (CFMI) was considering developing a new jet engine for the Airbus A340. The withdrawal of a competitor's engine had created an unforeseen opportunity for CFMI to re-enter a competition it had apparently lost... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Partners and Partnerships; Investment; Globalized Markets and Industries; Manufacturing Industry; Air Transportation Industry
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Enright, Michael J. "CFM International, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 792-097, April 1992. (Revised February 1996.)
  • 01 Oct 1998
  • News

New Releases

an organized framework to help individuals make intelligent choices. It presents ways to identify the right problem or opportunity, probe one's values, generate and evaluate alternatives, think about tradeoffs, and cope with uncertainties... View Details
  • Student-Profile

Anil Doshi

the inherent uncertainty in producing new knowledge to be a personal challenge. Be patient and persevere over the course of your doctoral career. Some practical tips before coming: learn software environments used in your field of... View Details
  • 17 Oct 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, October 17, 2017

Research Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations By: Goh, Joel, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh, and David Moore Abstract—Cost-effectiveness studies of medical... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • April 1999 (Revised October 2001)
  • Case

Motive Communications

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Marco Iansiti, Myra M. Hart, William W Chan and Find Findsen
The founders of Motive Communications, Inc., a recent start-up dedicated to reinventing the support chain involved in the delivery of information technology support services, put in place a development process hinged on extensive customer feedback. As part of this, a... View Details
Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology Industry
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Rayport, Jeffrey F., Marco Iansiti, Myra M. Hart, William W Chan, and Find Findsen. "Motive Communications." Harvard Business School Case 699-157, April 1999. (Revised October 2001.)
  • March 1992
  • Case

Amgen, Inc.: Planning the Unplannable

By: Nitin Nohria
By the early 1990s, Amgen--a pharmaceutical company started little over a decade ago as Applied Molecular Genetics--was within range of becoming a billion-dollar company. With two extremely successful biotechnology drugs on the market, Amgen stood as the largest and... View Details
Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Strategic Planning; Success; Risk and Uncertainty; Pharmaceutical Industry
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Nohria, Nitin. "Amgen, Inc.: Planning the Unplannable." Harvard Business School Case 492-052, March 1992.
  • 1971
  • Chapter

Risk, the Pricing of Capital Assets, and the Evaluation of Investment Portfolios

By: Michael Jensen
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Capital; Asset Pricing; Performance Evaluation
Citation
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Jensen, Michael. "Risk, the Pricing of Capital Assets, and the Evaluation of Investment Portfolios." In Frontiers of Investment Analysis, edited by E. Bruce Fredrikson. International Textbook Company, 1971. (Previously published in Journal of Business, Vol. 42 (April, 1969))
  • March 1968 (Revised July 2010)
  • Case

Basic Industries

By: Joseph L. Bower and John W. Rosenblum
Policy problems, mainly organizational issues, face a young middle manager in the context of capital budgeting in a highly technological conglomerate firm with high market uncertainty. View Details
Keywords: Business Conglomerates; Capital Budgeting; Policy; Managerial Roles; Risk and Uncertainty
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Bower, Joseph L., and John W. Rosenblum. "Basic Industries." Harvard Business School Case 313-121, March 1968. (Revised July 2010.)
  • 24 Sep 2018
  • Blog Post

Working to Keep Pirates At-Bay: My Summer in Cyber Security

Security Insurance. I joined the company as its first MBA intern. It was a truly transformative experience for me and for the company itself! It was exciting to work and develop in such a dynamic environment. My background in consulting provided me with the curiosity... View Details
Keywords: Entrepreneurship
  • 01 Jun 2000
  • News

Flexibility Is Key to Product Development in Internet Time

approached as a series of experiments. You don't know what tasks are needed to complete the product, but you can still plan which sequence of trials to run. Developing products in a turbulent setting requires a process that does not avoid View Details
Keywords: Judith A. Ross
  • 07 Apr 2014
  • Research & Ideas

Negotiation and All That Jazz

agile, quick on their feet from moment to moment. That's not the same thing as winging it. Preparing For Uncertainty "Preparation is essential," he says. "You want to learn as much as you reasonably can before getting to the bargaining... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding
  • 22 Feb 2022
  • News

Launch Codes

capitalized, loss-making technology company is what it took for me to learn that! —Steve Papa (MBA 1999) founder of Endeca; founder and current CEO at Parallel Wireless; longtime NVC judge and mentor Tenacity Amid Uncertainty I applied to... View Details
Keywords: Dan Morrell; illustrations by Alvaro Dominguez
  • 01 Jun 2002
  • News

Up to the Challenge: Profiles from the Class of 2002

sky-high expectations at the turn of the millennium has been replaced by a climate of uncertainty marked by color-coded terrorism alerts, horrific Middle East violence, and the precipitous downfall of a seemingly indomitable corporate... View Details
  • 14 Jan 2015
  • Research & Ideas

Thriving in the Turbulence of Emerging Markets

hard, we did well." Navigating Uncertainty In Turkey Güler Sabancı If the life experiences of Bajaj provide dramatic insights into the business environment in India, those of Güler Sabancı, the first woman to head a top business group in... View Details
Keywords: by Geoffrey Jones; Manufacturing; Auto
  • winter 1980
  • Article

Evolving Terms of Mineral Agreements: Risk, Reward, and Participation in Deep Seabed Mining

By: James K. Sebenius and Mati Pal
Keywords: Metals and Minerals; Risk and Uncertainty; Motivation and Incentives; Mining Industry
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Sebenius, James K., and Mati Pal. "Evolving Terms of Mineral Agreements: Risk, Reward, and Participation in Deep Seabed Mining." Columbia Journal of World Business 15, no. 4 (winter 1980): 75–83.
  • October 1997
  • Case

Planned Parenthood Federation of America (B)

By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Elaine V. Backman
Outlines the process of strategy reinvention adopted by Planned Parenthood. It lays out the new strategic proposals, and the reactions of the various constituencies to those proposals. View Details
Keywords: Change Management; Framework; Core Relationships; Risk and Uncertainty; Adaptation; Health Industry
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Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Elaine V. Backman. "Planned Parenthood Federation of America (B)." Harvard Business School Case 598-002, October 1997.
  • April 2024
  • Article

Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details
Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
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Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Art. 103814. Journal of Financial Economics 154 (April 2024).
  • 2016
  • Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato
We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details
Keywords: Stock Market; Financial Markets; Business Earnings; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty
Citation
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Scharfstein, David S., and Antonio Falato. "The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22689, September 2016.
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