Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Article

Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?

By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli

We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit... View Details

Keywords: Syndicated Loans; Credit Events; Career Outcomes; Loan Officers; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Personal Development and Career

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March – April 2009
Article

Market Research and Innovation Strategy in a Duopoly

By: Dominique Lauga and Elie Ofek

We model a duopoly in which ex-ante identical firms must decide where to direct their innovation efforts. The firms face market uncertainty about consumers' preferences for innovation on two product attributes and technology uncertainty about the success of their R&D... View Details

Keywords: Profit; Innovation and Management; Demand and Consumers; Duopoly and Oligopoly; Research and Development; Competitive Strategy

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January 2023
Case

Year Up: Measuring and Scaling Impact

By: Natalia Rigol, Benjamin N. Roth, Brian Trelstad and Sarah Mehta

Year Up, a non-profit that provides training and practical work experience to low-income young people, has for years prioritized impact measurement. By 2022, it had built a robust body of evidence demonstrating that its program yields higher earnings for participants.... View Details

Keywords: Demographics; Education; Jobs and Positions; Measurement and Metrics; Performance; Research; Social Enterprise; Growth Management; Education Industry; United States; Massachusetts; Boston

2011
Book

Capitalism at Risk: Rethinking the Role of Business

By: Joseph L. Bower, Herman B. Leonard and Lynn S. Paine

The spread of capitalism worldwide has made people wealthier than ever before. But capitalism's future is far from assured. The global financial meltdown of 2008 nearly triggered another Great Depression, economies in Europe are still teetering, and powerful... View Details

Keywords: Business And Society; Economic Systems; Economic Growth; Leading Change; Business and Community Relations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Business Strategy

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24 Jul 2000
Research & Ideas

Value Maximization and Stakeholder Theory

of decisions regarding any of a firm's constituencies. The world may be complex and difficult to understand. It may leave us in deep uncertainty about the effects of any decisions we may make. It may be... View Details

Keywords: by Michael C. Jensen

2009
Working Paper

Product-Market Competition and Managerial Autonomy

By: Christian Alejandro Ruzzier

It is often argued that competition forces managers to make better choices, thus favoring managerial autonomy in decision making. I formalize and challenge this idea. Suppose that managers care about keeping their position or avoiding interference, and that they can... View Details

Keywords: Management; Competition; Decision Making

2022
Article

Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns

By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang

Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable... View Details

Keywords: Climate Finance; Vulnerabilities; Currencies; Foreign Exchange; Climate Change; Currency; Natural Disasters

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2012
Working Paper

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks

November 2022
Technical Note

National Security and Transnational Capitalism

By: Meg Rithmire

Though the relationship between national security and transnational commerce had long been interrogated and contested, the 2020s saw the escalation of concerns about insecurity and interdependence. These concerns manifested in a suite of institutional innovations and... View Details

Keywords: Capitalism; National Security; Globalization

December 2022
Article

Divergence Between Employer and Employee Understandings of Passion: Theory and Implications for Future Research

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz and Hannah Weisman

There is an increasingly prevalent expectation in contemporary society that employees be passionate for their work. Here, we suggest that employers and employees can have different understandings of passion that potentially conflict. More specifically, we argue that... View Details

Keywords: Employee Relationship Management; Human Capital; Performance Effectiveness; Management Style

June 2021
Case

Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment

By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu

This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Banking; Growth Management; Investment Return; Capital Markets; Interest Rates; Competition; Cost Management; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Performance Evaluation

2017
Working Paper

Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship

By: Eleanor W. Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton

Small business owners and others in self-employment have the option to transition to paid work. If there is initial uncertainty about entrepreneurial earnings, this option increases the expected lifetime value of self-employment relative to pay in a single year. This... View Details

Keywords: Self-employed; Small Business; Business Earnings; Entrepreneurship; Ownership; Compensation and Benefits

2024
Working Paper

When Insurers Exit: Climate Losses, Fragile Insurers, and Mortgage Markets

By: Ishita Sen, Pari Sastry and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva

This paper studies how homeowners insurance markets respond to growing climate losses and how this impacts mortgage market dynamics. Using Florida as a case study, we show that traditional insurers are exiting high risk areas, and new lower quality insurers are... View Details

Keywords: Insurance; Natural Disasters; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Insurance Industry; Florida

17 Apr 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Technology Choice and Capacity Portfolios Under Emissions Regulation

Keywords: by David Drake, Paul R. Kleindorfer & Luk N. Van Wassenhove

March–April 2013
Article

Unlocking Innovation Through Business Experimentation

By: Stefan Thomke

There is a downside to businesses that focus heavily on standardization, optimization, and driving out variability: Such organizations leave themselves vulnerable to underinvesting in experimentation and variation, which are the lifeblood of innovation. Good... View Details

Keywords: Experimentation; Innovation Management; Learning And Development; Research; Innovation and Management; Business Processes

Article

Detecting Adversarial Attacks via Subset Scanning of Autoencoder Activations and Reconstruction Error

By: Celia Cintas, Skyler Speakman, Victor Akinwande, William Ogallo, Komminist Weldemariam, Srihari Sridharan and Edward McFowland III

Reliably detecting attacks in a given set of inputs is of high practical relevance because of the vulnerability of neural networks to adversarial examples. These altered inputs create a security risk in applications with real-world consequences, such as self-driving... View Details

Keywords: Autoencoder Networks; Pattern Detection; Subset Scanning; Computer Vision; Statistical Methods And Machine Learning; Machine Learning; Deep Learning; Data Mining; Big Data; Large-scale Systems; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science

April–May 2021
Article

Labor Mobility and Antitakeover Provisions

By: Aiyesha Dey and Joshua White

How do firms protect their human capital? We test whether firms facing an increased threat of being acquired strengthen their antitakeover provisions (ATPs) in order to bond with their employees. We use the adoption of the Inevitable Disclosure Doctrine (IDD) by U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Labor Mobility; Antitakeover Provisions; Trade Secrets; Implicit Contracting; Employee Bonding; Corporate Governance; Acquisition; Human Capital; Strategy; Innovation and Invention; Intellectual Property; Safety

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June 2014
Case

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal

By: Nancy F. Koehn, Kelly McNamara, Nora N. Khan and Elizabeth Legris

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal analyzes the turnaround and reconstruction of Starbucks Coffee Company from 2008 to 2014 as led by CEO and co-founder Howard Schultz. The case offers executives and students an opportunity to examine in depth how... View Details

Winter 2013
Article

Corporate Governance Reform and Executive Incentives: Implications for Investments and Risk-Taking

By: Daniel Cohen, Aiyesha Dey and Thomas Lys

We investigate the mechanism through which the Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX) was associated with changes in corporate investment strategies. We document that the passage of the governance regulations in SOX was followed by a significant decline in pay‐performance... View Details

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03 Oct 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Cartels and Competition: Neither Markets nor Hierarchies

Keywords: by Jeffrey Fear

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