Publications

October 2000
Article

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States

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January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)

By: John T. Gourville

One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

July 2014
Article

Accounting for Crises

By: Venky Nagar and Gwen Yu

We provide among the first empirical evidence consistent with recent macro global-game crisis models, which show that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises (e.g., Angeletos and Werning, 2006; Morris and Shin, 2002, 2003). In these models,... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Mathematical Methods; Game Theory; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting; Financial Crisis

SSRN

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15 Nov 2012
Research & Ideas

Funding the Design of Livable Cities

four primary trends driving the development of innovative solutions: The first is the world's population growth, forecast by the United Nations to reach roughly 9 billion by 2050, and the mass migration from the countryside and agrarian... View Details

Keywords: by Lisa Chase; Construction; Real Estate; Energy; Utilities

04 Apr 2018
Op-Ed

Op-Ed: Why Private Investors Must Fund 'New Nuclear' Power Right Now

CO2 emissions are forecast to grow for the foreseeable future, according to the United States Energy Information Association. Fossil fuels are winning the race to fill urgent demand for power, especially in Asia. Chart courtesy Joseph... View Details

Keywords: by Joseph Lassiter; Energy; Green Technology

Web

Digital Archival Resources - Georges F. Doriot : Educating Leaders, Building Companies, Baker Library, Harvard Business School

Bulletin Site Credits Manufacturing Course Student Reports, 1927-1968 This collection includes reports submitted by students in the Manufacturing course taught by Professor Georges F. Doriot from 1927-1968. Covering an extraordinary range of topics, the reports View Details

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Digital Archival Resources - Georges F. Doriot : Educating Leaders, Building Companies, Baker Library, Harvard Business School

Bulletin Site Credits Manufacturing Course Student Reports, 1927-1968 This collection includes reports submitted by students in the Manufacturing course taught by Professor Georges F. Doriot from 1927-1968. Covering an extraordinary range of topics, the reports View Details

01 Apr 2002
News

Pamela Thomas Graham

the story of Enron's collapse continues to unfold, Thomas-Graham is hesitant to predict how the debacle might change the business world. "I would not position myself as a forecaster of future events, but there's certainly going to be more... View Details

Keywords: Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries; Arts, Entertainment

2025
Working Paper

Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Volatility; Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Stocks

SSRN

April 1993 (Revised June 1994)
Supplement

MathSoft, Inc. (B)

By: V. Kasturi Rangan

Describes the president's decision regarding MathSoft's marketing channels and communications methods, and the company's sales results during the next five quarters. The (A) case market response model is also updated. View Details

Keywords: Communication Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Curriculum and Courses; Learning; Knowledge Sharing; Growth and Development Strategy; Marketing Channels; Education Industry

February 1984 (Revised February 1986)
Case

E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.: Titanium Dioxide

By: W. Carl Kester, Robert R. Glauber, David W. Mullins Jr. and Stacy S. Dick

Disequilibrium in the $350 million TiO2 market has prompted Du Pont's Pigments Department to develop two strategies for competing in this market in the future. The growth strategy has a smaller internal rate of return than the alternative strategy due to large capital... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Growth and Development Strategy; Strategic Planning; Projects; Chemical Industry

Article

Traveling Agents: Political Change and Bureaucratic Turnover in India

By: Lakshmi Iyer and Anandi Mani

We develop a framework to empirically examine how politicians with electoral pressures control bureaucrats with career concerns as well as the consequences for bureaucrats' career investments. Unique micro-level data on Indian bureaucrats support our key predictions.... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Government and Politics; Investment; Competency and Skills; Personal Development and Career; Rank and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; India

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January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
Background Note

Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process

By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner

Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Credit; Bonds; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry

2007
Working Paper

The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are

By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman

This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias

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01 Sep 2017
News

Is Private Equity Blockchain’s Killer App?

Review and Deloitte provide insight on how industries and companies could use blockchain tech to their best advantage. To learn more about the forecasted growth of blockchain, take a look at the Statista database within the eBaker alumni... View Details

Keywords: Dan Morrell

Web

Educating Leaders - Georges F. Doriot:Educating Leaders, Building Companies, Baker Library, Harvard Business School

20 years out. Doriot envisioned these reports as significant "contribution[s] to the future of American business." 21 Covering an extraordinary range of topics over the years, from plastics to fiber optics, the reports forecasted the... View Details

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model

February 2004
Case

Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC

By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur

An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers; Distribution Channels; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

March 1993
Case

Clarion Optical Co.

By: Michael J. Roberts and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on two individuals' attempts to purchase Clarion Optical Co. Forces students to consider alternative proposals for financing the purchase; generate pro forma cash flows to assess the feasibility of these proposals; estimate the sources and magnitude of... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction