Publications

April 2022
Article

Predictable Financial Crises

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

January–February 2017
Article

Africa's New Generation of Innovators

By: Clayton M. Christensen, Efosa Ojomo and Derek van Bever

With a young, urbanizing population, abundant natural resources, and a growing middle class, Africa seems to have all the ingredients necessary for huge growth. Nevertheless, a number of multinationals have recently left the continent, discouraged by widespread... View Details

Keywords: Innovation Strategy; Multinational Firms and Management; Economic Growth; Africa

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December 12, 2009
Other Article

The Transformation of India: Incumbent Control, Reforms, and Newcomers

By: Laura Alfaro and Anusha Chari

What microeconomic forces drove the structural transformation of India's economy in recent decades? This column studies firm-level data and portrays a dynamic economy driven by the growth of private and foreign firms. But the Indian economy did not go through an... View Details

Keywords: Transformation; Microeconomics; India

25 Feb 2002
Research & Ideas

The Country Effect: Does Location Matter?

factors in determining performance. In other words, successful companies in China or Thailand look a lot like other successful companies regardless of where they are located, and regardless of their country's political and economic... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

Research Summary

Principal Research Interests

My research is principally focused on nineteenth- and twentieth-century subjects, with an emphasis on economic and especially financial history. I am interested in the role of banks and capital markets in the process of economic development as well as in the political... View Details

24 Jul 2013
Op-Ed

Detroit Files for Bankruptcy: HBS Faculty Weigh In

Once the hub of American manufacturing, Detroit is in a long state of economic decline. The rubber finally hit the road last week, when the city filed for bankruptcy protection. The challenges ahead for those that call the Motor City home... View Details

Keywords: by John Macomber, Robert C. Pozen, Eric D. Werker & Benjamin Kennedy; Auto

October 2014
Article

Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows and Global Imbalances

By: Laura Alfaro, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vadym Volosovych

We construct measures of net private and public capital flows for a large cross-section of developing countries considering both creditor and debtor side of the international debt transactions. Using these measures, we demonstrate that sovereign-to-sovereign... View Details

Keywords: Current Account; Aid/government Debt; Reserves; Puzzles; Productivity; Sovereign Finance; Developing Countries and Economies; Macroeconomics

April 1990 (Revised November 1992)
Case

Population Services International: The Social Marketing Project in Bangladesh (Abridged)

By: James E. Austin

Population Services International (PSI) was a not-for-profit agency founded to disseminate family planning information and to market birth control products, primarily in less developed countries seeking to curb their population explosions. In 1976, PSI concluded an... View Details

Keywords: Conferences; Developing Countries and Economies; Information Publishing; Growth and Development Strategy; Marketing Strategy; Social Marketing; Agreements and Arrangements; Product; Nonprofit Organizations; Pharmaceutical Industry; Bangladesh; Washington (state, US)

January 2017 (Revised January 2019)
Case

The Rise and Fall of Lehman Brothers

By: Stuart C. Gilson, Kristin Mugford and Sarah L. Abbott

With nearly $700 billion in assets, Lehman was the largest U.S. bankruptcy in history. In 2007, Lehman achieved record earnings of over $4 billion on revenues of $60 billion. By September 2008 the fourth largest investment bank in the world was bankrupt. How had a... View Details

January 2023
Case

Thomas Buberl: Refounding AXA

By: Hubert Joly, Mihir Desai and Amram Migdal

In 2022, AXA and its CEO Thomas Buberl faced new types of challenges, including systemic risks such as climate change, geopolitical instability, public health crises, and social tensions caused by economic risks. AXA was one of the world’s largest insurers. Since... View Details

28 Aug 2014
Op-Ed

Government Can Do More to Unfreeze Small Business Credit

significantly enhance economic growth and job creation at the local, regional, and national levels. In the next post in our series, Mills will look at the emerging industry of online lenders that are... View Details

Keywords: by Karen Mills; Banking

2015
Book

Political Standards: Corporate Interest, Ideology, and Leadership in the Shaping of Accounting Rules for the Market Economy

By: Karthik Ramanna

There are certain institutions underlying our modern market-capitalist system that are largely outside the interest and understanding of the general public—e.g., rulemaking for bank capital adequacy, actuarial standards, accounting standards, and auditing practice. In... View Details

Keywords: Business And Society; Financial Institutions; Financial Reporting; GAAP; IFRS; Lobbying; Capitalism; Sustainability; Accounting; Finance; Business and Government Relations; Leadership; Accounting Industry; Financial Services Industry; United States; China; India

17 Jun 2014
First Look

First Look: June 17

Singapore's major trade partners began testing the nation's export-driven growth model. It was also becoming clear that the Singaporean government could no longer focus single-mindedly on economic growth.... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

Medium-term Business Cycles

By: Diego Comin and Mark Gertler

Over the postwar period, many industrialized countries have experienced significant medium-frequency oscillations between periods of robust growth versus relative stagnation. Conventional business cycle filters, however, tend to sweep these oscillations into the trend.... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Fluctuation; Information Technology; Research and Development; Resource Allocation; Framework; Trends; Performance Efficiency; Performance Productivity

January 2006 (Revised April 2006)
Case

Capitalism and Democracy in a New World

By: Bruce R. Scott, Sarah Potvin and Alison Adams

Focuses on the formulation of the Northwestern Ordinance as the core of a development strategy for capitalism and democracy in the United States. A precursor to the Constitution, the Northwestern Ordinance was based on the New England Model to achieve a broad and... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Economic Systems; Income; Laws and Statutes; Government and Politics; Growth and Development Strategy; Power and Influence; United States

02 Feb 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Do Employment Protections Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States

Keywords: by David H. Autor, William R. Kerr & Adriana D. Kugler

September 1992 (Revised March 1998)
Case

Japan Confronts an Interdependent World

By: George C. Lodge

Traces the evolution of Japan's economic strategy from 1972 to 1992. Describes the collapse of the Japanese stock market in the spring of 1992, raising the question: Is this the end of Japan's miraculous growth? To help students consider that question, the case... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Financial Markets; Information Technology; System Shocks; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Crisis; Government and Politics; Growth and Development; Situation or Environment; Japan; United States

2009
Working Paper

The End of Chimerica

By: Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick

For the better part of the past decade, the world economy has been dominated by a world economic order that combined Chinese export-led development with US over-consumption. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 likely marks the beginning of the end of the Chimerican... View Details

Keywords: History; Globalized Economies and Regions; Currency Exchange Rate; Economic Growth; Trade; Financial Crisis; China; United States

2009
Working Paper

Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Globalized Economies and Regions; Multinational Firms and Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Agreements and Arrangements; Southeast Asia; United States