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August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details

Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) case. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds two tree-based models using historical LendingClub data to predict, with some probability, whether borrower will repay or default on his loan.
... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Decision Trees; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

2008
Book

Predictable Surprises

By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

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June 1998 (Revised June 1999)
Case

Dixon Corporation: The Collinsville Plant

By: W. Carl Kester

Dixon Corp.faces the task of valuing a plant and an associated project that it is considering buying. The revisions are designed to enable the application of adjusted present value technique for valuation. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Valuation; Projects; Forecasting and Prediction; Acquisition; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Technology Industry

October 2003 (Revised January 2004)
Case

Global Farmer and the Future of Soybean Production, The

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Kevin M. Allison

Three farmers from three different countries are looking at the global soybean system and how to position themselves in the future. View Details

Keywords: Animal-Based Agribusiness; Trade; Globalized Markets and Industries; Food; Strategic Planning; Forecasting and Prediction; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

27 Feb 2007
First Look

First Look: February 27, 2007

Flows," revised from NBER Working Paper No. 8472, September 2001, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 03-006, 2002, revised December 2005) Abstract We examine the forecasting power of international portfolio flows for local... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

23 Jan 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, January 23, 2018

features a regime-switching short-rate model. We evaluate the out-of-sample performance of our model in terms of forecasting ability and coverage properties and find that it improves on the standard Diebold and Li model. Publisher's link:... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

16 Jul 2019
News

The Making of a Movement

original donation total. With a second event complete, the two business school graduates at the helm were able to do a deep-dive analysis of their concept and forecast its future. From what they saw, it was positioned to grow rapidly in... View Details

Keywords: Greg Forbes Siegman; cancer

Article

The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky

Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction

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2009
Case

What People Want (and How to Predict It)

By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris

Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Publishing Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

2011
Working Paper

From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management

By: Anette Mikes

For two decades, risk management has been gaining ground in banking. In light of the recent financial crisis, several commentators concluded that the continuing expansion of risk measurement is dysfunctional (Taleb, 2007; Power, 2009). This paper asks whether the... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; Organizational Culture; Situation or Environment; Banking Industry

December 1998 (Revised February 1999)
Case

i2 Technologies, Inc.

By: Ananth Raman and Jasjit Singh

Describes the emergence and growth of i2 Technologies and the supply chain planning software industry. In December 1998, i2's market capitalization was in excess of $2 billion; the supply chain planning software industry had annual sales of approximately $1 billion and... View Details

Keywords: Information Technology; Applications and Software; Supply Chain Management; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology Industry

August 2003
Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets

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November 2003
Article

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

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September 2008 (Revised June 2011)
Case

Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents

Marketers are often tasked with exploring the factors that impact the long-run adoption of a new product or technology. The new product under consideration here is the drug-eluting stent: a device which props open a clogged artery to the heart and then releases... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Adoption; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry

November – December 2011
Article

Most Likely to Succeed: Leadership in the Industry

By: Robert C. Pozen and Theresa Hamacher

What is the critical factor for success in the U.S. mutual fund industry? Is it top-ranked investment performance, innovative products, or pervasive distribution? In our view, it is none of these factors, despite their obvious importance. Instead, the best predictors... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Success; Investment Funds; Rank and Position; Performance; Investment; Innovation and Invention; Product; Distribution; Forecasting and Prediction; Asset Management; Governance Controls; United States

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January 2011 (Revised January 2015)
Case

Matrix Capital Management (A)

By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane

Ben Balbale, a partner at hedge fund Matrix Capital, must decide whether to exit their investment in Rovi Corporation, a company with a diverse portfolio of patents used primarily for digital interactive guides. Rovi's shares are up over 50% from the time Balbale... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Asset Management; Cash Flow; Stock Shares; Financial Markets; Investment Funds; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods; Strategy; Valuation; Financial Services Industry

January 2010 (Revised March 2013)
Case

HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

By: F. Asis Martinez Jerez, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery and Lisa Brem

HubSpot, a web marketing startup is under pressure from VCs to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. In the case, students explore the drivers of customer churn and uncover opportunities to increase customer retention across the... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Satisfaction; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Happiness; Consulting Industry

February 2001 (Revised June 2001)
Case

ClubTools, Inc.

By: Paul W. Marshall and Kristin Perry

Discusses the development of an Internet start-up by a recent HBS graduate. Details the company's business plan, incubation, technology development, marketing strategy, and search for funding. View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Business Plan; Cash Flow; Marketing Strategy; Financing and Loans; Technological Innovation; Internet and the Web; Forecasting and Prediction

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01 Sep 2014
News

Faculty Q&A: Cents and Sensibilities

forecast for revenue by an enormous amount and that requires some adjustment. We’ll have to either raise taxes or cut spending. People don’t always understand the technical details of these policies, but that’s really not the point. The... View Details

Keywords: April White; faculty research; writing

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