Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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08 Dec 2015
Research Event

Research Trends Discussed at India and South Asia Conference

Initiative's Creating Emerging Markets project, in which business leaders in Africa, Asia, and Latin America discuss their experiences growing businesses amid the opportunities and uncertainties of developing markets throughout recent... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman; Education

Profile

Raja Bobbili

this dominant idea that business leaders make important decisions with imperfect information. As an investor, that is exactly what I have to do – exercise sound judgment in the context of significant uncertainty and complexity. How did... View Details

Keywords: Investment Management / Hedge Fund

2025
Working Paper

Who Values Democracy?

This paper examines the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation

Article

The Board's New Innovation Imperative: Directors Need to Rethink Their Roles and Their Attitude to Risk

By: Linda A. Hill and George Davis

As firms scramble for competitive advantage, boards—once the cautious voices urging management to mitigate risk—are now calling for breakthrough innovation. Indeed, avoiding risk is now seen as the riskiest proposition of all. In speaking with CEOs and board members... View Details

Keywords: Governing and Advisory Boards; Innovation Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Governance

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1 Mar 2013 - 2 Mar 2013
Conference Presentation

The Value of Flexibility in Baseball Roster Construction

By: Timothy Chan and Douglas S. Fearing

Drawing inspiration from the theory of production flexibility in manufacturing networks, we provide the first optimization-based analysis of the value of positional flexibility (the ability of a player to play multiple positions) for a major league baseball team in the... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Design; Production; Resource Allocation; Groups and Teams; Adaptation; Sports

2023
White Paper

Managing Workforce Risk in an Era of Unpredictability and Disruption

By: Joseph B. Fuller, Michael Griffiths, Reem Janho, Michael Stephan, Carey Oven, Keri Calagna, George Fackler, Robin Jones, Sue Cantrell and Zac Shaw

Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; Talent and Talent Management

Forthcoming
Article

Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies

By: Ishita Sen, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva and Sangmin Oh

We study the pricing of homeowners’ insurance, a $15 trillion market essential for hedging climate-related losses. We show that insurance premiums are subject to starkly different regulations across states, creating persistent cross-subsidies and price distortions. We... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Homeowners' Insurance; Price Controls; Financial Regulation; Cross-subsidization; Climate Change; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Geographic Location; Insurance Industry; United States

October 2016 (Revised October 2017)
Case

Going Rogue: Choson Exchange in North Korea

By: Sophus A. Reinert, Dawn H. Lau and Amy MacBeath

In mid-2015, the Singapore-based CEO of Choson Exchange Geoffrey See pondered his next move. He had founded Choson Exchange as a non-profit in 2009 to further female entrepreneurship in North Korea by providing business and legal training in the isolated country. Now,... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; For-Profit Firms; Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities; North Korea

November 2013
Article

Investment Cycles and Startup Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We find that VC-backed firms receiving their initial investment in hot markets are more likely to go bankrupt, but conditional on going public are valued higher on the day of their IPO, have more patents, and have more citations to their patents. Our results suggest... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Market Cycles; Financing Risk; Risk and Uncertainty; Venture Capital; Investment; Innovation and Invention

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February 2013
Case

New Earth Mining, Inc.

By: William E. Fruhan and Wei Wang

New Earth Mining is one of the largest producers of precious metals in the U.S. While the firm operates mines primarily in the U.S. and Canada, it has also made substantial investments in gold exploration projects in Australia and Chile. New Earth has been very... View Details

Keywords: South Africa; Capital Budgeting; International Business; Return On Investment; Mining; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Valuation; Investment; Diversification; Mining Industry; Australia; South Africa; Chile; Canada; United States

June 2010 (Revised January 2017)
Teaching Note

Continental Media Group: Business Highlights

By: Robert Simons

Teaching Note for 110087. View Details

Keywords: Execution; Management Control Systems; Performance Measurement; Informal Management; Emergent Strategy; Management; Profit; System; Opportunities; Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Media and Broadcasting Industry

May 2005 (Revised November 2005)
Background Note

Note on Credit Derivatives

Provides the basic underlying model for credit risk analysis, as well as covers basic credit risk derivatives, such as asset swaps, credit default swaps, total return of rate swaps, and credit spread options. View Details

Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Risk and Uncertainty; Credit

March 2023
Article

Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits

By: Elisabeth Kempf and Oliver Spalt

This paper provides novel evidence suggesting that securities class action lawsuits, a central pillar of the U.S. litigation and corporate governance system, can constitute an obstacle to valuable corporate innovation. We first establish that valuable innovation output... View Details

Keywords: Class-action Litigation; Turnover; Lawsuits and Litigation; Innovation and Invention; Risk and Uncertainty

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Article

Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty

By: David P. Daniels and Julian Zlatev

Biases influence important decisions, but little is known about whether and how individuals try to exploit others’ biases in strategic interactions. Choice architects—that is, people who present choices to others—must often decide between presenting choice sets with... View Details

Keywords: Nudges; Biases; Strategic Decision Making; Social Influence; Choice Architects; Choice Architecture; Reflection Effect; Certainty Effect; Loss Aversion; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence

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April 2017
Article

Financing Risk and Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; Innovation and Invention

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July 2002 (Revised July 2008)
Case

Value Retail

By: Arthur I Segel and Ani M Vartanian

Scott Malkin, CEO of Value Retail, a developer and operator of European outlet villages serving luxury brands, is planning on developing a 18,503 m2 open-air outlet village to be built 98 kilometers south of Milan on land he was about to acquire for 7.26 million lira.... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Expansion; Retail Industry; Milan

September–October 1995
Article

Is Foreign Infrastructure Investment Still Risky?

By: L. T. Wells Jr. and E. S. Gleason

Keywords: Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Global Range

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04 Feb 2021
Research & Ideas

Inside CEOs' Pandemic Worries: Uncertainty, Employees, and Kids

and their ability to pay for each of our projects to assess the situation.” Uncertainty about “what the runway of cash should be and how long to plan for” compounded CEOs' liquidity concerns. Family and friends. Like everyone else, CEOs... View Details

Keywords: by Gamze D. Yucaoglu, Robin Abrahams, and Boris Groysberg

2016
White Paper

LNG and Renewable Power: Risk and Opportunity in a Changing World

By: Jurgen Weiss, Steven Levine, Yingxia Yang and Anul Thapa

The paper explores potential long-term revenue risks to LNG exports to the extent LNG competes with alternative energy sources (such as renewables) in LNG destination markets. Given the longevity of LNG infrastructure investments, the evolution of the attractiveness of... View Details

Keywords: LNG; Renewable Energy; Revenue; Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities

April 2016 (Revised December 2019)
Case

Dan Gilbert: Crazy or Crazy Like a Fox?

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz

Keywords: Detroit; Rock Ventures; Dan Gilbert; Real Estate; Buildings and Facilities; Demographics; Financial Crisis; Government and Politics; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; Real Estate Industry; United States

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