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  • All HBS Web  (1,779)
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  • 2010
  • Chapter

Lessons from Catastrophe Reinsurance

By: Kenneth A. Froot
Of the 20 most costly catastrophes since 1970, more than half have occurred since 2001. Is this an omen of what the 21st century will be? How might we behave in this new, uncertain, and more dangerous environment? Will our actions be rational or irrational? A select... View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; Natural Disasters; Behavior
Citation
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Froot, Kenneth A. "Lessons from Catastrophe Reinsurance." Chap. 20 in The Irrational Economist: Making Decisions in a Dangerous World, edited by Erwann Michel-Kerjan and Paul Slovic, 171–182. New York: PublicAffairs Books, 2010.
  • November 1996 (Revised July 1997)
  • Case

Alexander Plaza

By: Arthur I Segel and William J. Poorvu
In May 1996, Henry Bower, an asset manager for a real estate adviser, Medcem, has to negotiate the details of a lease after signing a letter of intent with a high technology company, Defentek, Inc. Defentek, Inc. is a fast-growing company with limited net worth that is... View Details
Keywords: Negotiation Tactics; Negotiation Preparation; Agreements and Arrangements; Risk and Uncertainty; Real Estate Industry; Financial Services Industry; District of Columbia
Citation
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Segel, Arthur I., and William J. Poorvu. "Alexander Plaza." Harvard Business School Case 897-066, November 1996. (Revised July 1997.)
  • May 2003
  • Article

Managing the Sources of Uncertainty: Matching Process and Context in Software Development

By: Alan MacCormack and Roberto Verganti
Keywords: Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Applications and Software; Research and Development; Technology Industry
Citation
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MacCormack, Alan, and Roberto Verganti. "Managing the Sources of Uncertainty: Matching Process and Context in Software Development." Journal of Product Innovation Management 20 (May 2003): 217–232.
  • Web

Welcome to HBS | MBA

shape the future of business while improving the society in which we live. We know you’ll be a different person when you emerge from your two years here: someone who can think on their feet, approach uncertainty with confidence, and make... View Details
  • Web

Future Positive - Managing the Future of Work

uncertainty due to many forces of change as they attempt to prepare the workforce of the future. To navigate the headwinds, employers must be more discerning in their strategic choices. As they fight the turbulence, they need to tap into... View Details
  • 22 Sep 2020
  • Working Paper Summaries

Older People Are Less Pessimistic about the Health Risks of COVID-19

Keywords: by Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer
  • October 1977 (Revised April 1998)
  • Case

Japan (D1): A Strategy for Economic Growth

By: Bruce R. Scott and Audrey T. Sproat
Data on Japan's unparalleled economic growth in the post-war era: How was it achieved and what future risks might be foreseen in 1971? View Details
Keywords: Economic Growth; Growth and Development Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Japan
Citation
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Scott, Bruce R., and Audrey T. Sproat. "Japan (D1): A Strategy for Economic Growth." Harvard Business School Case 378-106, October 1977. (Revised April 1998.)
  • 2024
  • Working Paper

The Rise of Alternatives

By: Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang and Emil Siriwardane
Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by... View Details
Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty
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Begenau, Juliane, Pauline Liang, and Emil Siriwardane. "The Rise of Alternatives." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-016, August 2024.
  • Article

Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps

By: Claudia Engel, Jonathan Rodden and Marco Tabellini
Choropleth disease maps have become an important tool for informing the public about the risks posed by COVID-19. In a survey conducted in the U.S. state of Georgia in June 2020, we randomly assigned respondents to view either of two maps. The first one reported... View Details
Keywords: Disease Surveillance; Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Policy
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Engel, Claudia, Jonathan Rodden, and Marco Tabellini. "Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps." Science Advances 8, no. 11 (March 18, 2022).
  • February 2021
  • Technical Note

Probability Distributions

By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
This technical note introduces students to the concept of random variables, and from there the normal and binomial distributions. After a brief introduction to random variables, the note describes the standard properties of the normal distribution: a single peak, and a... View Details
Keywords: Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; Theory; Analytics and Data Science
Citation
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Parzen, Michael, and Paul Hamilton. "Probability Distributions." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-704, February 2021.
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
A central question for understanding behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective levels, is how people perceive the health and economic risks they face. We conducted a survey of over 1,500 Americans from May 6–13, 2020, to understand... View Details
Keywords: Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Age
Citation
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Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27494, July 2020.
  • May 2021
  • Article

Risk-Mitigating Technologies: The Case of Radiation Diagnostic Devices

By: Alberto Galasso and Hong Luo
We study the impact of consumers’ risk perception on firm innovation. Our analysis exploits a major surge in the perceived risk of radiation diagnostic devices following extensive media coverage of a set of over-radiation accidents involving CT scanners in late 2009.... View Details
Keywords: Risk Perception; Innovation; Medical Devices; Liability Risk; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Technological Innovation
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Galasso, Alberto, and Hong Luo. "Risk-Mitigating Technologies: The Case of Radiation Diagnostic Devices." Management Science 67, no. 5 (May 2021): 3022–3040.
  • November 2016 (Revised November 2016)
  • Supplement

The Galaxy Dividend Income Growth Fund's Option Investment Strategies

By: W. Carl Kester
Keywords: Options; Option Contract; Option Pricing; Derivatives; Mutual Funds; Call Options; Put Options; Stock Options; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility; Financial Services Industry; United States
Citation
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Kester, W. Carl. "The Galaxy Dividend Income Growth Fund's Option Investment Strategies." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 217-703, November 2016. (Revised November 2016.)
  • Article

Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Mark Seasholes, Radu Burlacu, Patrice Fontaine and Sonia Jimenez-Garces
This paper mathematically transforms unobservable rational expectation equilibrium model parameters (information precision and supply uncertainty) into a single variable that is correlated with expected returns and that can be estimated with recently observed data. Our... View Details
Keywords: Risk Premiums; Cross-sectional Asset Pricing; REE Models; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Investment Return
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Seasholes, Mark, Radu Burlacu, Patrice Fontaine, and Sonia Jimenez-Garces. "Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 105, no. 3 (September 2012): 511–522.
  • 1985
  • Chapter

Cost-Benefit Analysis Applied to Risks: Its Philosophy and Legitimacy

By: Dutch Leonard and Richard Zeckhauser
Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management
Citation
Related
Leonard, Dutch, and Richard Zeckhauser. "Cost-Benefit Analysis Applied to Risks: Its Philosophy and Legitimacy." In Values at Risk, edited by Douglas MacLean. Totowa, NJ: Roman & Allanheld, 1985.
  • March 2023
  • Article

Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits

By: Elisabeth Kempf and Oliver Spalt
This paper provides novel evidence suggesting that securities class action lawsuits, a central pillar of the U.S. litigation and corporate governance system, can constitute an obstacle to valuable corporate innovation. We first establish that valuable innovation output... View Details
Keywords: Class-action Litigation; Turnover; Lawsuits and Litigation; Innovation and Invention; Risk and Uncertainty
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Kempf, Elisabeth, and Oliver Spalt. "Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits." Management Science 69, no. 3 (March 2023): 1323–1934.
  • Article

Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty

By: David P. Daniels and Julian Zlatev
Biases influence important decisions, but little is known about whether and how individuals try to exploit others’ biases in strategic interactions. Choice architects—that is, people who present choices to others—must often decide between presenting choice sets with... View Details
Keywords: Nudges; Biases; Strategic Decision Making; Social Influence; Choice Architects; Choice Architecture; Reflection Effect; Certainty Effect; Loss Aversion; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence
Citation
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Daniels, David P., and Julian Zlatev. "Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 151 (March 2019): 132–149.
  • April 2017
  • Article

Financing Risk and Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; Innovation and Invention
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Nanda, Ramana, and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf. "Financing Risk and Innovation." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 901–918.
  • July 2002 (Revised July 2008)
  • Case

Value Retail

By: Arthur I Segel and Ani M Vartanian
Scott Malkin, CEO of Value Retail, a developer and operator of European outlet villages serving luxury brands, is planning on developing a 18,503 m2 open-air outlet village to be built 98 kilometers south of Milan on land he was about to acquire for 7.26 million lira.... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Expansion; Retail Industry; Milan
Citation
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Segel, Arthur I., and Ani M Vartanian. "Value Retail." Harvard Business School Case 803-008, July 2002. (Revised July 2008.)
  • September–October 1995
  • Article

Is Foreign Infrastructure Investment Still Risky?

By: L. T. Wells Jr. and E. S. Gleason
Keywords: Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Global Range
Citation
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Wells, L. T., Jr., and E. S. Gleason. "Is Foreign Infrastructure Investment Still Risky?" Harvard Business Review 73, no. 5 (September–October 1995): 44–55.
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