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      • July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
      • Background Note

      A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"

      By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis
      Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Risk Management; Valuation
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      Sahlman, William A., and Daniel R Scherlis. A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method". Harvard Business School Background Note 288-006, July 1987. (Revised October 2009.)
      • May 1987 (Revised February 2000)
      • Case

      Codman & Shurtleff, Inc.: Planning and Control System

      By: Robert L. Simons
      Detailed description of the planning and control systems in use at Johnson & Johnson. Focuses on the actions of managers in one subsidiary in revising budget targets. Illustrates intensive strategic planning and financial planning process in a large, decentralized... View Details
      Keywords: Strategic Planning; Planning; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Audits; Budgets and Budgeting; Business Strategy; Financial Management; Business or Company Management; Management Systems; Public Administration Industry; Financial Services Industry
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      Simons, Robert L. "Codman & Shurtleff, Inc.: Planning and Control System." Harvard Business School Case 187-081, May 1987. (Revised February 2000.)
      • May 1987 (Revised October 1996)
      • Case

      Murray Ohio Manufacturing Co.

      By: Krishna G. Palepu
      After a record year in 1983, Murray Ohio's earnings declined in 1984. The company was faced with competition from cheap imports and was experiencing declining margins. Students are asked to analyze the company's 1984 financial statements and predict whether there is... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Financial Reporting; Business Divisions; Cost Management; Spending; Decision Making; Change Management; Problems and Challenges; Management Systems; Manufacturing Industry
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      Palepu, Krishna G. "Murray Ohio Manufacturing Co." Harvard Business School Case 187-178, May 1987. (Revised October 1996.)
      • July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
      • Background Note

      Note on Comparative Advantage

      By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman
      Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory
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      Yoffie, David B., and John J. Coleman. "Note on Comparative Advantage." Harvard Business School Background Note 387-023, July 1986. (Revised August 1987.)
      • May 1986 (Revised February 1991)
      • Case

      Wilson Lumber Co.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The Wilson Lumber Co. is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed, and assess the attractiveness of the... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Sales; Financial Strategy
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Wilson Lumber Co." Harvard Business School Case 286-122, May 1986. (Revised February 1991.)
      • January 1986 (Revised April 1987)
      • Background Note

      Models for Updating Demand Forecasts

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Models for Updating Demand Forecasts." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-180, January 1986. (Revised April 1987.)
      • July 1985
      • Background Note

      Measuring Forecast Accuracy

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Measuring Forecast Accuracy." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-027, July 1985.
      • Article

      Political Forecasting as a Management Tool

      By: James E. Austin and David Yoffie
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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      Austin, James E., and David Yoffie. "Political Forecasting as a Management Tool." Journal of Forecasting 3, no. 4 (October–December 1984).
      • February 1984 (Revised February 1986)
      • Case

      E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.: Titanium Dioxide

      By: W. Carl Kester, Robert R. Glauber, David W. Mullins Jr. and Stacy S. Dick
      Disequilibrium in the $350 million TiO2 market has prompted Du Pont's Pigments Department to develop two strategies for competing in this market in the future. The growth strategy has a smaller internal rate of return than the alternative strategy due to large capital... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Growth and Development Strategy; Strategic Planning; Projects; Chemical Industry
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      Kester, W. Carl, Robert R. Glauber, David W. Mullins Jr., and Stacy S. Dick. "E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.: Titanium Dioxide." Harvard Business School Case 284-066, February 1984. (Revised February 1986.)
      • 1983
      • Chapter

      Analyzing Competitors: Predicting Competitor Behavior and Formulating Offensive and Defensive Strategy

      By: M. E. Porter
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior
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      Porter, M. E. "Analyzing Competitors: Predicting Competitor Behavior and Formulating Offensive and Defensive Strategy." In Policy, Strategy, and Implementation, edited by Milton Leontiades. Random House, 1983.
      • October 1982
      • Case

      Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 183-096, October 1982.
      • February 1982 (Revised June 1994)
      • Case

      Boston Gas Co.: Winter 1980-81

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Negotiation; Forecasting and Prediction; Utilities Industry
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Boston Gas Co.: Winter 1980-81." Harvard Business School Case 182-196, February 1982. (Revised June 1994.)
      • January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
      • Case

      CBS Record Co. (A): The Long-Range Industry Forecast

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics; Music Entertainment; Music Industry
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "CBS Record Co. (A): The Long-Range Industry Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-182, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
      • January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
      • Case

      Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-179, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
      • January 1982
      • Case

      Unitrode Corp. (C): Sales Forecasting of Major Procurements

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Sales
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (C): Sales Forecasting of Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-180, January 1982.
      • January 1982 (Revised June 1983)
      • Case

      Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Planning
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning." Harvard Business School Case 182-181, January 1982. (Revised June 1983.)
      • January 1982
      • Case

      New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Telecommunications Industry
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-060, January 1982.
      • Article

      On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

      By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson
      Keywords: Investment; Performance; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Merton, Robert C., and Roy D. Henriksson. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." Journal of Business 54, no. 4 (October 1981): 513–533.
      • July 1981
      • Article

      On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

      By: Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets
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      Merton, Robert C. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts." Journal of Business 54, no. 3 (July 1981): 363–406.
      • May 1981 (Revised June 1994)
      • Case

      Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Apparel and Accessories Industry
      Citation
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)." Harvard Business School Case 181-122, May 1981. (Revised June 1994.)
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