Publications

01 Mar 2016
First Look

March 1, 2016

credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: net debt issuance falls in year t, while net equity issuance increases, patterns consistent with the reversal in credit-market... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

04 Oct 2004
Research & Ideas

Start to Measure Your E-commerce Success

potential payoffs of e-commerce investments. Measuring returns on e-commerce projects can be a daunting challenge. Predicting customer behavior is difficult, because using the Web to do business is still relatively new to many businesses and thus View Details

Keywords: by Marc J. Epstein

2010
Working Paper

The Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services: An Economic Analysis

By: Mohammad Arzaghi, Ernst R. Berndt, James C. Davis and Alvin J. Silk

We address a longstanding puzzle surrounding the unbundling of services occurring over several decades in the U.S. advertising agency industry: What accounts for the shift from bundling to unbundling of services and the slow pace of change? Using Evans and Salinger's... View Details

Keywords: Advertising; Change; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Marketing Strategy; Media; Service Operations; Agency Theory; Mathematical Methods; Advertising Industry; United States

March 2017 (Revised February 2025)
Case

Edwin Land: The Art and Science of Innovation

By: Tom Nicholas, Christopher T. Stanton and Matthew G. Preble

Throughout the second half of the 20th century, Polaroid first invented—and then continuously reinvented—the field of instant photography. Under the leadership of its mercurial founder Edwin Land, the company regularly released new instant cameras and films, often... View Details

Keywords: Instant Photography; Company History; Change Management; Disruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Business History; Innovation Strategy; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation and Management; Intellectual Property; Patents; Product Marketing; Brands and Branding; Product Launch; Product Development; Chemical Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States

Educators

July – August 2008
Article

When Virtue Is a Vice

By: Anat Keinan and Ran Kivetz

Choosing duty over pleasure today can cause regret down the road—whereas regret over the reverse is fleeting. Marketers of luxury products and services should consider prompting customers to predict their future feelings about choices made now. View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Moral Sensibility; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Emotions; Luxury

June 2000 (Revised March 2002)
Teaching Note

Iridium LLC TN

By: Benjamin C. Esty

Teaching Note for (9-200-039). View Details

Keywords: Financing and Loans; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Financial Strategy; Performance; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Communications Industry

2011
Chapter

Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States

April 1998 (Revised November 1999)
Case

Hamilton Financial Investments: A Franchise Built on Trust

By: Robert L. Simons and Antonio Davila

Provides a vehicle for students to evaluate risk management in the fast-paced mutual funds industry. A new risk manager has been hired to install new management controls and procedures. A series of decisions will determine how much business and franchise risk the... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Management Teams; Managerial Roles; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Performance Evaluation; Corporate Strategy; Change Management; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry

Educators

07 Jul 2014
Research & Ideas

Banning Big-box Stores Can Hurt Local Retailers

have been increasing their footprint of small urban stores. In February, Walmart announced plans to add 270 to 300 small stores during the fiscal year, adding to the existing stable of 346 Neighborhood Markets and 20 WalMart Express stores. The February announcement... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail

19 May 2008
Research & Ideas

Connecting School Ties and Stock Recommendations

placed on information acquisition and synthesis. Certain agents play key roles in revealing information into equity markets. A large part of an equity analyst's job is to research, produce, and then disclose reports forecasting aspects of... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Financial Services

January 2022
Technical Note

Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk

This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this... View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Financial Management; Financing and Loans

Educators

February 2024
Supplement

ReNew (B): A New Direction

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen

The global renewables sector was in a slump, but the Indian market was booming. India’s largest renewable electricity generator, ReNew, faced a dilemma: it traded on the Nasdaq in New York, but saw huge opportunity in the Indian market. In response, CEO Sumant Sinha... View Details

Keywords: Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Trends; Transformation; Private Ownership; Environmental Sustainability; Mission and Purpose; Expansion; Market Entry and Exit; Energy Industry; Asia; India

10 Jun 2002
Research & Ideas

How to Look at Globalization Now

state in which cross-border linkages can be forgotten about. So one does not have to make a precise forecast to diagnose that quasiglobalization as a condition is sufficiently broad to persist for some time to come. Achieving similar... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

01 Dec 2015
First Look

December 1, 2015

standard forecasting regressions reveal that increases in p*t lead to economic downturns. Second, disaster risk is priced in the cross section of U.S. equity returns. A zero-cost equity portfolio with exposure to disasters earns... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2023
Working Paper

The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities

By: David S. Scharfstein and Sergey Chernenko

We show that the use of algorithms to predict race has significant limitations in measuring and understanding the sources of racial disparities in finance, economics, and other contexts. First, we derive theoretically the direction and magnitude of measurement bias in... View Details

Keywords: Racial Disparity; Paycheck Protection Program; Measurement Error; AI and Machine Learning; Race; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result

SSRN

August 2008
Article

Economic Links and Predictable Returns

By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini

This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details

Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

Article

Competition for Scarce Resources

By: Peter Eso, Volker Nocke and Lucy White

We model a downstream industry where firms compete to buy capacity in an upstream market that allocates capacity efficiently. Although downstream firms have symmetric production technologies, we show that industry structure is symmetric only if capacity is sufficiently... View Details

Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Natural Environment; Technology; Production; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Demand and Consumers; Industry Structures; Performance Capacity

June 2009
Article

Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman

We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Film Entertainment; Demand and Consumers; Renting or Rental; Power and Influence; Prejudice and Bias; Online Technology; Motion Pictures and Video Industry