Publications

Article

The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky

Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction

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2009
Case

What People Want (and How to Predict It)

By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris

Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Publishing Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

2011
Working Paper

From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management

By: Anette Mikes

For two decades, risk management has been gaining ground in banking. In light of the recent financial crisis, several commentators concluded that the continuing expansion of risk measurement is dysfunctional (Taleb, 2007; Power, 2009). This paper asks whether the... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; Organizational Culture; Situation or Environment; Banking Industry

December 1998 (Revised February 1999)
Case

i2 Technologies, Inc.

By: Ananth Raman and Jasjit Singh

Describes the emergence and growth of i2 Technologies and the supply chain planning software industry. In December 1998, i2's market capitalization was in excess of $2 billion; the supply chain planning software industry had annual sales of approximately $1 billion and... View Details

Keywords: Information Technology; Applications and Software; Supply Chain Management; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology Industry

August 2003
Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets

November 2003
Article

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

Web

HBS - Financials | From the Chief Financial Officer

$224 FY 22 174 FY 21 81 FY 20 146 FY 19 222 Total revenues for fiscal 2023 increased 11 percent year over year to more than $1 billion. This growth exceeded our forecast by 2 percent, primarily driven by Executive Education, the endowment... View Details

Web

HBS - Financials | From the CFO

and building strategic partnerships that enhance the group's capabilities and broaden its reach. HBS Online revenue increased approximately 31 percent in fiscal 2021, significantly exceeding our forecast and generating an operating... View Details

01 Sep 2011
News

Whale Wars

and the sea was a lovely cacophony of light and sound. Seals barked and penguins chattered. As for the whales, they were awesome not because of their size but because they seemed so aware — so human. Sea life is in great peril. The United Nations View Details

Keywords: Marybeth I. Thoren; Social Assistance; Health, Social Assistance; Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services; Professional Services

30 Dec 2013
HBS Case

HBS Cases: What Warren Buffett Saw in Newspapers

Tribune, Media General's largest newspaper, from his bid: "In retrospect, his targeting just the smaller papers is a big clue about his forecast for the industry. Unlike regionals or big-city papers, small-town newspapers don't have... View Details

Keywords: by Deborah Blagg; Journalism & News; Publishing

October 2000
Article

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States

January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)

By: John T. Gourville

One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

01 Jun 2013
News

Brick by Brick

globalize, the financial picture grew worse. One problem: The company's growing complexity was choking it. Adding more bricks made products harder to assemble, forecasts harder to determine, and inventory more difficult to manage. The toy... View Details

Keywords: toys; Miscellaneous Store Retailers; Retail Trade

12 Jul 2011
First Look

First Look: July 12

debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

April 21, 2023
Article

When Scenario Planning Fails

By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Eemil Rupponen

How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can... View Details

Keywords: Planning; Crisis Management; Organizational Structure; Forecasting and Prediction; System Shocks; Organizational Change and Adaptation

February 2001
Case

ALWAYSi

By: Paul A. Gompers and Sergio Rattner

Anthony Soohoo, COO at ALWAYSi, an independent film distributor, is preparing projections for the company. Soohoo must decide which revenue streams the company should pursue. The firm is faced with a variety of attractive opportunities. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Business Strategy; Revenue; Film Entertainment; Strategic Planning; Business Startups; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

April 2025 (Revised May 2025)
Background Note

Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap

By: E. Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller

Startups as well as existing firms recognize the need to invest in order to acquire customers for their new ventures. And as each customer is expected at some point to have generated sufficient gross margins to cover their CAC, management expects that, soon enough, the... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Customers; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Business or Company Management

July 2019
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch

July 2014
Article

Accounting for Crises

By: Venky Nagar and Gwen Yu

We provide among the first empirical evidence consistent with recent macro global-game crisis models, which show that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises (e.g., Angeletos and Werning, 2006; Morris and Shin, 2002, 2003). In these models,... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Mathematical Methods; Game Theory; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting; Financial Crisis

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