probability - Publications - Faculty & Research

13 Jan 2009
First Look

First Look: January 13, 2009

order when should DVDs are rented before want DVDs. Specifically, a 1.3% increase in the probability of a reversal in preferences (from a baseline rate of 12%) ensues if the first of two sequentially rented movies has more should and... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

16 Dec 2002
Research & Ideas

Mentoring—Using the Voice of Experience

the recognition that no matter how much technology we have, how many PowerPoint slides we have, how many knowledge management systems we have, the fact of the matter is that people learn from experience. Simulation probably helps, but... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

16 Jul 2013
First Look

First Look: July 16

Leadership Lessons from the Chilean Mine Rescue By: Rashid, Faaiza, Amy C. Edmondson, and Herman B. Leonard Abstract—Three years ago, when a cave-in at the San José mine in Chile trapped 33 men under 700,000 metric tons of rock, experts estimated the View Details

Keywords: Anna Secino

02 Mar 2020
What Do You Think?

Are Candor, Humility, and Trust Making a Comeback?

rarely will one end up on the wrong side of right with these values.” Rod R. said, “Comeback? These have always been essential and valued if you are strolling through life as a not trustworthy person that is arrogant and doesn’t listen to others, you’re View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

09 Oct 2019
Research & Ideas

For Better Ideas, Bring the Right People to the Brainstorm

conversation with an extroverted person, they not only generated more ideas, but the ideas they came up with scored roughly 15 percent to 20 percent higher. “What we think happens is an extroverted person is going to say a lot of relevant and irrelevant things, a lot... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

16 May 2018
Research & Ideas

How Companies Managed Risk (and Even Benefitted) in World War Internment Camps

or chemistry in the camp library. In the family camp, some women were even allowed to keep servants. “They had a good time relative to what was happening in other geographies,” says Giacomin. “Eventually, their major problem was boredom. In that sense it created a... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Manufacturing

07 Aug 2017
Research & Ideas

'Be Yourself (Within Reason)' and Other Job Search Survival Tips

that thinking about a job as a relationship could serve job seekers in other fields. If you are reading this, you probably have the good fortune to have made some choices about the jobs you took or are going to take. Prestige and money... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Accounting; Education

30 May 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, May 30

approach for analyzing decision problems. A running example illustrates problem structuring (decision trees), probability assessment, endpoint evaluation, “folding back the tree” as a method of analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Purchase... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

03 Nov 2014
Research & Ideas

Brand Lessons From the Nobel Prize

in the first sentence of the obit, "BLANK, who won a Nobel Prize for his work in BLANK ." Greyser says. "I've been watching the obits of laureates ever since we started this work. And to a person, that is in the first sentence." The Nobel Prize, they say, "is View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel

06 Aug 2014
What Do You Think?

What Is Warren Bennis’s Legacy?

optimistic, looking forward, and learning. They exhibited what is described by the word, "neoteny," the retention of youthful qualities by adults. (It helps explain why Bennis included himself in the sample of persons studied as "geezers.") Many of... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Education

11 Nov 2013
Research & Ideas

A Smarter Way to Reduce Customer Defections

should consider not only the churn probability of customers, but also how much they spend, the likelihood that they will respond to a retention offer, and the cost of the offer itself. Gupta's predictive model takes all these factors into... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman; Retail; Service

15 Apr 2013
Research & Ideas

Solving the Search vs. Display Advertising Quandary

advertising agency on how much money was spent and how the funds were allocated. In addition, he received data on how many consumers "converted" after clicking on search and display ads. Because a decision to open a bank account is View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Advertising

04 Jan 2012
What Do You Think?

Income Inequality: What’s the Right Amount?

"Over longer horizons, reduced inequality and sustained growth may thus be two sides of the same coin." If we were to graph economic growth vs. the Gini Coefficient, it would probably show some kind of parabola in which the... View Details

Keywords: by Jim Heskett

02 Dec 2009
What Do You Think?

Should Immigration Policies Be More Welcoming to Low-Skilled Workers?

warehousing industry in the Southwestern U.S. as "by and large dependable and hard working, and their children will probably have better jobs than they have." As Irv Williamson put it: "Why would anybody consider limiting... View Details

Keywords: by Jim Heskett

19 Feb 2008
Research & Ideas

Radical Design, Radical Results

and see to have the least amount of variety in their product line. After all, if the imitators decide to stand back and observe what is most successful, wouldn't they choose to copy just a few, choice products? Conversely, it would seem that the innovative companies... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Consumer Products

07 Feb 2005
What Do You Think?

If You Blink, Will You Miss?

decision making based on probabilities derived from very small samples of data. The Bayesians in some ways freed decision makers from the burden and expenses (in terms of money, but especially in terms of time) of large-sample information... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

21 Jun 2004
Research & Ideas

Racial Diversity Pays Off

preferences, the theory goes, can lead to miscommunication, stereotyping, polarization—and performance losses. Most empirical studies probably are more supportive of Position B, said Ely. A few support Position A, but they have largely... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

16 Jun 2003
Research & Ideas

Researchers Contribute Globalization of Markets Papers

in many categories, the evidence suggests "the global standardization hypothesis has less momentum behind it than is often supposed that to be the case," according to HBS professor Pankaj Ghemawat. "The Globalization of Markets" was View Details

Keywords: by Working Knowledge editors

05 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 5, 2010

beliefs as well as how a customer's beliefs affect its order quantities. We identify two dimensions of supplier performance: consistency, the probability that a supplier delivers in the current period conditional on availability in the... View Details