Predictability - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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May 1999 (Revised March 2001)
Case

Marshall Industries

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport

Confounding predictions that the Internet would "disintermediate" commerce, making "middle man" companies all but obsolete, Marshall Industries, a leading electronics distributor, used the Internet and digital technologies to reinvent itself. Marshall continued to sell... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web; Supply Chain; Emerging Markets; Customer Focus and Relationships; Distribution Industry; Electronics Industry

13 Feb 2024
HBS Seminar

Stijn van Osselaer, Cornell SC Johnson College of Business

20 Aug 2013
First Look

First Look: August 20

Publications August 2013 Marketing Science Do Bonuses Enhance Sales Productivity? A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Bonus-Based Compensation Plans By: Chung, Doug J., Thomas Steenburgh, and K. Sudhir Abstract—We estimate a dynamic structural model of sales force... View Details

Keywords: Anna Secino

July – August 2011
Article

Foundations of Organizational Trust: What Matters to Different Stakeholders?

By: Michael Pirson and Deepak Malhotra

Prior research on organizational trust has not rigorously examined the context specificity of trust nor distinguished between the potentially varying dimensions along which different stakeholders base their trust. As a result, dominant conceptualizations of... View Details

Keywords: Trust; Competency and Skills; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Framework; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Organizations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Identity; Perspective

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Teaching Interest

MBA Required Curriculum-- Strategy Course

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell

The objective of this course is to help students develop the skills for formulating strategy. It provides an understanding of:

A firm's operative environment and how to sustain competitive advantage.
How to generate superior value for customers... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage

2025
Working Paper

Trade Within Multinational Boundaries

By: Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Fariha Kamal and Zachary Kroff

We leverage newly linked data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to study transactions within U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs). We show that using administrative data on intrafirm trade allows us to correct for measurement error... View Details

Keywords: Multinational Enterprise; Input-output Linkages; Multinational Firms and Management; Trade; Supply Chain

2023
Other Unpublished Work

If 3 Was 9

By: Randolph B. Cohen

One determinant of where economies and markets are headed is how well we handle the climate crisis. Headlines on the climate tend to emphasize two points. First, average global temps are rising, with it being the hottest summer in 1,000 centuries per some estimates.... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Measurement and Metrics

Article

Pseudo-Set Framing

By: Kate Barasz, Leslie John, Elizabeth A. Keenan and Michael I. Norton

Pseudo-set framing—arbitrarily grouping items or tasks together as part of an apparent “set”—motivates people to reach perceived completion points. Pseudo-set framing changes gambling choices (Study 1), effort (Studies 2 and 3), giving behavior (Field Data and Study... View Details

Keywords: Framing Effects; Gestalt Psychology; Judgment; Judgments; Decision Making; Perception; Behavior

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August 2011
Article

The Jekyll and Hyde of Emotional Intelligence: Emotion-Regulation Knowledge Facilitates Prosocial and Interpersonally Deviant Behavior

By: Stéphane Côté, K. A. DeCelles, Julie M. McCarthy, Gerben A. Van Kleef and Ivona Hideg

Does emotional intelligence promote behavior that strictly benefits the greater good, or can it also advance interpersonal deviance? In the investigation reported here, we tested the possibility that a core facet of emotional intelligence—emotion-regulation... View Details

Keywords: Behavior; Emotions

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January–February 2013
Article

A Field Investigation of Multilevel Cynicism Toward Change

By: K. A. DeCelles, Paul E. Tesluk and Faye S. Taxman

Although most research on cynicism toward change (CTC) has been conceptualized at the individual level, we propose that CTC is better conceptualized as a multilevel phenomenon, acting as both an employee attitude and an organizational climate. We conducted a multilevel... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Leading Change; Change Management; Attitudes

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2014
Article

Notes from the Search for Deep Indicators in Services

By: James L. Heskett

Much of the research in the service sector over the last four decades has concerned itself with the search for deep indicators that explain service performance. This paper provides a brief retrospective of some of this research and illustrates the directions that this... View Details

Keywords: Service Delivery; Organizational Culture; Performance; Service Industry

2009
Working Paper

Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

A model is considered where firms internalize the regret costs that consumers experience when they see an unexpected price change. Regret costs are assumed to be increasing in the size of price changes and this can explain why the size of price increases is less... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Price; Marketing; Consumer Behavior; Mathematical Methods

11 Dec 2007
First Look

First Look: December 11, 2007

expectations to businesspeople. He also published forecasts through syndicated newspaper columns and made public pronouncements on the future of the economy—including a notorious statement on the eve of the October 1929 stock-market crash that optimistically View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

April–May 2024
Article

Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information

By: Jung Koo Kang

I explore whether big-data sources can crowd out the value of private information acquired through lending relationships. Institutional lenders have been shown to exploit their access to borrowers’ private information by trading on it in financial markets. As a shock... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Markets; Value; Knowledge Dissemination; Financing and Loans

October 15, 2021
Article

Virtuous Victims

By: Jillian J. Jordan and Maryam Kouchaki

How do people perceive the moral character of victims? We find, across a range of transgressions, that people frequently see victims of wrongdoing as more moral than non-victims who have behaved identically. Across 15 experiments (total n = 9,355), we document this... View Details

Keywords: Moral Judgment; Restorative Justice; Punishment; Compensation; Person Perception; Moral Sensibility; Judgments; Perception

2019
Working Paper

Industrial Change, the Boundary of the Firm, and Racial Employment Segregation

By: John-Paul Ferguson and Rembrand Koning

Racial employment segregation between large workplaces in America has grown over the last generation. We know little about how changes in patterns of employment by economic sector have contributed to this growth, though. While there are many stylized narratives about... View Details

Keywords: Workplace Segregation; Firm Boundaries; Organizations; Employees; Segmentation; Race; Change; United States

July 23, 2019
Article

Is the U.S. on Its Way to Becoming a Cashless Society?

By: Shelle Santana

The rise of digital payments, including credit cards, debit cards, and mobile payments systems, have contributed to the steady shift in payment practices among consumers. According to the FDIC, cash represented just 30% of all payments in 2017, and the percentage of... View Details

Keywords: Payment Methods; Cash; Credit Cards; Consumer Behavior; Change; United States

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Article

How Did the Great Recession Affect Charitable Giving?

By: Arthur C. Brooks

A great deal of research has studied the effects of income and tax changes on charitable giving. However, little work has focused on how these relationships were affected by the Great Recession. This article estimates the tax and income effects using the 2009 Panel... View Details

Keywords: Charitable Giving; Great Recession; Philanthropy; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Financial Crisis; Taxation; Policy

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2024
Article

Financial Constraints and Short-term Planning are Linked to Flood Risk Adaptation Gaps in U.S. cities

By: Shirley Lu and Anya Nakhmurina

Adaptation is critical in reducing the inevitable impact of climate change. Here we study cities’ adaptation to elevated flood risk by introducing a linguistic measure of adaptation extracted from financial disclosures of 431 US cities over 2013–2020. While cities with... View Details

Keywords: City; Natural Disasters; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategic Planning

Research Summary

Mobile web advertising: maximum entropy banner allocation

The worldwide mobile advertising market, currently $3 billion in size, is expected to grow to $20 billion by 2011. Online and mobile advertising employs two main pricing models: pay-per-click (CPC) and pay-per-impression (CPM). To date, most of the... View Details

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