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      • Faculty Publications  (1,057)

      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • October 2002 (Revised May 2021)
      • Case

      Group Process in the Challenger Launch Decision (A)

      By: Amy C. Edmondson and Laura Feldman
      The night before the launch of the Challenger shuttle, officials from Morton Thiokol (Solid Rocket Booster manufacturer) and NASA participated in a teleconference to discuss whether to postpone the shuttle launch due to predicted low temperatures at Kennedy Space... View Details
      Keywords: Process Analysis; Problems and Challenges; Groups and Teams; Engineering; Risk Management; Analysis; Decision Making; Aerospace Industry; United States
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      Edmondson, Amy C., and Laura Feldman. "Group Process in the Challenger Launch Decision (A)." Harvard Business School Case 603-068, October 2002. (Revised May 2021.)
      • October 2002 (Revised January 2013)
      • Case

      Krispy Kreme Doughnuts

      By: Paul M. Healy
      Krispy Kreme is a rapidly growing firm with a business model that has excited Wall Street. View Details
      Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Reporting; Performance Evaluation; Business Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; New York (city, NY)
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      Healy, Paul M. "Krispy Kreme Doughnuts." Harvard Business School Case 103-018, October 2002. (Revised January 2013.)
      • September 2002
      • Case

      Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand

      By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg
      Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry
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      Bowen, H. Kent, and Jonathan P Groberg. "Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand." Harvard Business School Case 603-058, September 2002.
      • July 2002 (Revised March 2005)
      • Case

      Kendall Square Research Corporation (A) (Abridged)

      By: William J. Bruns Jr. and F. Warren McFarlan
      Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. Sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993, and the company sold stock to the public for the first time. Analysts forecasted higher earnings for 1993, then the company's revenue recognition... View Details
      Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Standards; Accounting Audits; Computer Industry
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      Bruns, William J., Jr., and F. Warren McFarlan. "Kendall Square Research Corporation (A) (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 303-036, July 2002. (Revised March 2005.)
      • July 2002
      • Case

      Introducing ... The XFL!

      By: Susan M. Fournier, Stephen A. Greyser and Seth Schulman
      When the XFL professional football league debuted on February 3, 2001, it generated a Nielsen rating of 10.1, higher than any nationally televised program in a Saturday evening time slot. The next week, ratings plummeted, and by week nine the XFL game earned the title... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Product Development; Culture; Commercialization
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      Fournier, Susan M., Stephen A. Greyser, and Seth Schulman. "Introducing ... The XFL!" Harvard Business School Case 503-015, July 2002.
      • July 2002 (Revised March 2003)
      • Case

      Restructuring Bulong's Project Debt

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Michael Kane
      Preston Resources, a small Australian gold mining company, bought the Bulong nickel mine for A$319 million in November 1998 and financed the acquisition by issuing a US$185 million (A$294 million) project bond. At the time, mining had been underway for several months,... View Details
      Keywords: Finance; Projects; Restructuring; Bonds; Borrowing and Debt; Business Startups; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Valuation; Mining Industry; Australia
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Michael Kane. "Restructuring Bulong's Project Debt." Harvard Business School Case 203-027, July 2002. (Revised March 2003.)
      • July– September 2002
      • Article

      Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models

      By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
      Keywords: Value; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Theory
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      Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models." International Journal of Forecasting 18, no. 3 (July– September 2002): 359–368.
      • April 2002 (Revised July 2002)
      • Case

      Imagicast

      By: John T. Gourville and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld
      Imagicast has brought to market an interactive, multimedia retail kiosk designed to increase product sales. In spite of promising projections by industry analysts and detailed demand forecasts by Imagicast management, the company has yet to sell a single kiosk. Time... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Sales; Technology; Retail Industry; United States
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      Gourville, John T., and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld. "Imagicast." Harvard Business School Case 502-052, April 2002. (Revised July 2002.)
      • April 2002
      • Teaching Note

      Anagene, Inc. TN

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Teaching Note for (9-102-030). View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Public Ownership; Sales; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Volume; Governing and Advisory Boards; Cost Accounting; Business or Company Management; Financial Reporting; Strategy; Performance Capacity; Biotechnology Industry
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Anagene, Inc. TN." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 102-078, April 2002.
      • March 2002 (Revised November 2003)
      • Case

      Satellite Radio

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown
      In early 2002, XM and Sirius were fighting for control of the emerging U.S. market for satellite radio. Each company targeted consumers in automobiles, providing 100 channels of CD-quality audio for a monthly subscription fee of $10-$13. Wall Street analysts predicted... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Problems and Challenges; Network Effects; Partners and Partnerships; Information Technology; Business Model; Investment Return; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R., and Alastair Brown. "Satellite Radio." Harvard Business School Case 802-175, March 2002. (Revised November 2003.)
      • February 2002 (Revised March 2003)
      • Case

      Casuarinas Educational Corporation

      By: Michael J. Roberts, Howard H. Stevenson and Matthew C. Leib
      Casuarinas has developed a very successful elementary, now secondary, school based on excellence in teaching, service, and multilingual education. Peru lacks similar high-quality post-secondary institutions. This case focuses on the potential entry of Casuarinas into... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Entrepreneurship; Management; Market Entry and Exit; Planning; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Education Industry; Peru
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      Roberts, Michael J., Howard H. Stevenson, and Matthew C. Leib. "Casuarinas Educational Corporation." Harvard Business School Case 802-083, February 2002. (Revised March 2003.)
      • 2002
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
      We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
      • 2002
      • Other Unpublished Work

      The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

      By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
      The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
      • Article

      End the Mythmaking and Return to True Analysis

      By: Joseph B. Fuller
      Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Analysis
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      Fuller, Joseph B. "End the Mythmaking and Return to True Analysis." Financial Times (January 22, 2002).
      • December 2001 (Revised April 2003)
      • Case

      Poland's A2 Motorway

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Michael Kane
      Autostrada Wielkopolska S.A. (AWSA) is a consortium of 18 firms that won a concession to build and operate Poland's first private toll road. In June 2000, AWSA's chief financial officer, Wojciech Gebicki, is preparing for a meeting with the projects' lead bankers to... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Cost vs Benefits; Project Finance; Projects; Construction Industry; Transportation Industry; Poland
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Michael Kane. "Poland's A2 Motorway." Harvard Business School Case 202-030, December 2001. (Revised April 2003.)
      • December 2001 (Revised February 2008)
      • Case

      Borealis

      By: Robert S. Kaplan and Bjorn N. Jorgensen
      When Borealis, a European producer of plastics, used a traditional, time-consuming budgeting process, the budget was quickly out of date in a competitive environment characterized by continually changing input and output prices and dynamic market conditions. This case... View Details
      Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Budgets and Budgeting; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Governance Controls; Balanced Scorecard; Management Systems; Manufacturing Industry; Europe
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      Kaplan, Robert S., and Bjorn N. Jorgensen. "Borealis." Harvard Business School Case 102-048, December 2001. (Revised February 2008.)
      • 2001
      • Working Paper

      When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms

      By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Equity; Stocks; Price; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 8750, December 2001. (First draft in 2001.)
      • November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
      • Case

      Four Products: Predicting Diffusion

      By: John T. Gourville
      One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
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      Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion." Harvard Business School Case 502-045, November 2001. (Revised September 2002.)
      • November 2001 (Revised August 2005)
      • Case

      BigEast Bank (A): Credit Card Approval

      By: Frances X. Frei and Dennis Campbell
      BigEast is considering adopting a relationship-centric view in its credit card approval process. This would shift the bank's current practice of analyzing applications based on the merits of a single product to one where the customer's existing relationship is... View Details
      Keywords: Customers; Forecasting and Prediction; Banks and Banking; Analytics and Data Science; Managerial Roles; Relationships; Adoption; Banking Industry
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      Frei, Frances X., and Dennis Campbell. "BigEast Bank (A): Credit Card Approval." Harvard Business School Case 602-098, November 2001. (Revised August 2005.)
      • October 2001 (Revised March 2002)
      • Background Note

      Implicit Predictors of Consumer Behavior

      By: Gerald Zaltman, Nancy Puccinelli, Kathryn A. Braun and Fred W Mast PHD
      An important distinction is drawn in psychology between explicit and implicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge refers to consciously held beliefs about an individual or object that often draws on the remembering of experiences in the past. In contrast, implicit knowledge... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Knowledge Sharing; Consumer Behavior; Opportunities; Cognition and Thinking
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      Zaltman, Gerald, Nancy Puccinelli, Kathryn A. Braun, and Fred W Mast PHD. "Implicit Predictors of Consumer Behavior." Harvard Business School Background Note 502-043, October 2001. (Revised March 2002.)
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