Publications

2016
Chapter

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Keywords: Investment Return; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation

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April 2008
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)

By: John T. Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption

2005
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

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22 May 2007
First Look

First Look: May 22, 2007

measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on long-term bonds and short-term bonds View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

December 2002
Case

National Economic Accounting: Past, Present, and Future

By: David A. Moss and Sarah A. Brennan

Presents the fundamentals of GDP accounting (including definitions, etc.), examines the history of national accounting, and surveys the international debate over "Green GDP." The first section explains the basic rules and definitions of national economic accounting and... View Details

Keywords: History; Natural Environment; Quality; Accounting; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Economy; United States

02 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 2, 2018

among them was a severe cash flow constraint that prevented Frederic Schreurs from properly forecasting and investing resources to maximize the BIP’s impact. As traffic inched along, Sanginga contemplated how he could steer both the BIP... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

19 Sep 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, September 19

company's crowdsourcing weather-forecasting service in Japan. It changed the face of weather forecasting in Japan. Bashi and LeStage wondered whether the experience could be applied to the U.S. market. Purchase this case:... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

03 Sep 2013
First Look

First Look: September 3

reverts faster in countries with less efficient governments. The findings suggest that country-level factors have an economically significant impact on the rate of corporate profitability mean reversion. The study has implications for View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

May 2021
Case

Roku 2021

By: David B. Yoffie and Daniel Fisher

This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and streaming media (that is, Look Forward) by... View Details

Keywords: Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Media and Broadcasting Industry

Article

Big Names or Big Ideas: Do Peer-Review Panels Select the Best Science Proposals?

By: Danielle Li and Leila Agha

This paper examines the success of peer-review panels in predicting the future quality of proposed research. We construct new data to track publication, citation, and patenting outcomes associated with more than 130,000 research project (R01) grants funded by the U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Patents; Research; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Business and Government Relations; United States

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September 2011
Article

How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?

The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and S&P, leading to longstanding legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

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28 Jun 2011
First Look

First Look: June 28

the return predictability. In addition, we find that sell-side analysts are subject to these same information processing constraints, as their forecast revisions of easy-to-analyze firms predict their future revisions of more complicated... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

17 Mar 2011
Research & Ideas

Harvard Business School Faculty Comment on Crisis in Japan

forecasted GDP growth rates for Japan by 0.5% for the first quarter of this year, and by more than 1.5% for the second quarter. The financial consequences are equally alarming. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 6.2% at the market's... View Details

Keywords: Re: Multiple Faculty

22 Apr 2020
Research Event

How Investors Are Sizing Up Climate Change’s Risks—and Opportunities

the US Midwest and one from the US South, Cromwell demonstrated the analytical impact of overlaying the heat index forecast on these two locations. The bonds have nearly identical credit ratings and yields, even though the Southern... View Details

Keywords: by Danielle Kost; Financial Services

March 2011 (Revised February 2014)
Case

Cree, Inc.: Which Bright Future?

By: David J. Collis, Mary Furey and Matthew Shaffer

After its founding in the late 1980s, Cree Inc. quickly grew into a major player in the emerging LED market. By 2007, technological improvements in LEDs had made them suitable for TV, computer, and mobile "backlighting"; and concerns over global warning led to calls to... View Details

September 2024 (Revised October 2024)
Case

River Remedy: Navigating Mississippi’s Medical Marijuana Market

By: Robin Greenwood, Richard S. Ruback and Robert Ialenti

MBA student William Chism, the founder of a fully integrated medical marijuana company based in Mississippi, must respond to a significant disruption in the fledgling industry. In late 2023, Rapid Analytics, one of two active licensed testing facilities, has its... View Details

Keywords: Plant-Based Agribusiness; Business Growth and Maturation; Forecasting and Prediction; Microeconomics; Local Range; Government Legislation; Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Competitive Strategy; Governance Controls; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Mississippi

June 1998 (Revised June 1999)
Case

Dixon Corporation: The Collinsville Plant

By: W. Carl Kester

Dixon Corp.faces the task of valuing a plant and an associated project that it is considering buying. The revisions are designed to enable the application of adjusted present value technique for valuation. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Valuation; Projects; Forecasting and Prediction; Acquisition; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Technology Industry

October 2003 (Revised January 2004)
Case

Global Farmer and the Future of Soybean Production, The

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Kevin M. Allison

Three farmers from three different countries are looking at the global soybean system and how to position themselves in the future. View Details

Keywords: Animal-Based Agribusiness; Trade; Globalized Markets and Industries; Food; Strategic Planning; Forecasting and Prediction; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry