Publications

January–February 2023
Article

Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry

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July 2019
Article

I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Ioannis Evangelidis

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen... View Details

Keywords: Self-other Difference; Social Perception; Inference-making; Preferences; Consumer Behavior; Prediction; Prediction Error; Decision Choices and Conditions; Perception; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

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October 2013
Article

How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies

By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya

While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input... View Details

Keywords: Supply Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods

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May 2006
Case

Nokia in 2003

By: Paul M. Healy

Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations.... View Details

Keywords: Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Evaluation; Problems and Challenges; Electronics Industry

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model

February 2004
Case

Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC

By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur

An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers; Distribution Channels; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

March 1993
Case

Clarion Optical Co.

By: Michael J. Roberts and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on two individuals' attempts to purchase Clarion Optical Co. Forces students to consider alternative proposals for financing the purchase; generate pro forma cash flows to assess the feasibility of these proposals; estimate the sources and magnitude of... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

20 Dec 2011
First Look

First Look: December 20

The Wall Street Journal. We find no evidence that compensation is related to earnings forecast accuracy. But consistent with prior studies, we find analyst turnover to be related to forecast accuracy,... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

Web

HBS - Financials | From the Chief Financial Officer

strengthen the community, and charted an aspirational course for the future, demonstrating the resilience of the School’s faculty, staff, and students and the strength of the HBS economic model. Total revenues increased to a record level in fiscal 2022, exceeding our... View Details

Web

Entrepreneurial Sales 102: Building, Managing, and Scaling the First Sales Team as a Founder, Investor, or Advisor - Course Catalog

salesperson Train, manage, promote, and fire your first sales team Establish your first sales plan Manage the board’s expectations on revenue Instrument an accurate forecasting model “Superior sales and distribution by itself can create a... View Details

01 Dec 2007
News

Learning to Lead

Authored by Assistant Professors Boris Groysberg and Chris Marquis, the case is taught in the first-year course Leadership and Organizational Behavior (LEAD). After just a few days on the job, Keller (MBA ’05) is taken off one project and thrown into another involving... View Details

Keywords: Julia Hanna; Management

01 Dec 1999
News

New Releases

can respond appropriately to demand, lean inventories, and the rapid replenishment of stock. "The old way was to gear planning and production decisions to forecasts and guesses made months in advance of a selling season," write Hammond... View Details

2023
Working Paper

Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness

By: Neil Menghani, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill

In this paper, we develop a new criterion, "insufficiently justified disparate impact" (IJDI), for assessing whether recommendations (binarized predictions) made by an algorithmic decision support tool are fair. Our novel, utility-based IJDI criterion evaluates false... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Prejudice and Bias

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July 2005 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Ryanair Holdings plc

Examines the valuation of an Irish airline that reported its first decline in net income in 2004 and saw a 30% stock price drop on the news. Ryanair is a low-cost, low-fare airline headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, operating over 200 routes in 20 countries. The company... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; International Accounting; Analysis; Valuation; Air Transportation; Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Air Transportation Industry; Dublin

11 Jan 2011
First Look

First Look: Jan. 11

Publication:Journal of Finance (forthcoming) Abstract We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry.... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

19 Jun 2007
First Look

First Look: June 19, 2007

demand which underpin the link between the three characteristics of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

October 2001 (Revised March 2002)
Background Note

Implicit Predictors of Consumer Behavior

By: Gerald Zaltman, Nancy Puccinelli, Kathryn A. Braun and Fred W Mast PHD

An important distinction is drawn in psychology between explicit and implicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge refers to consciously held beliefs about an individual or object that often draws on the remembering of experiences in the past. In contrast, implicit knowledge... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Knowledge Sharing; Consumer Behavior; Opportunities; Cognition and Thinking

September 2004
Article

Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Voting; Conflict of Interests; Capital; Government and Politics; Wages; Saving; Forecasting and Prediction

April 1991 (Revised October 1993)
Case

Cat Fight in the Pet Food Industry (A)

By: David J. Collis

Describes the pet food industry in the mid-eighties prior to the breakout of a major competitive battle as manufacturers fight for share. Illustrates how when there are benefits to play in multiple markets, competitors will take action in one market to preserve their... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Markets; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Ownership Stake; Competition; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry