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      • Faculty Publications  (1,057)

      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • September 2004
      • Article

      Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows

      By: Kenneth A. Froot and J. Tjornhom Donohue
      Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry
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      Froot, Kenneth A., and J. Tjornhom Donohue. "Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows." Finance Research Letters 1, no. 3 (September 2004): 154–170. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 9079, July 2002, Harvard Business School Working Paper no. 03-005, July 2002.)
      • September 2004
      • Article

      Trust in Agency

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
      Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Agency Theory; Relationships; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts; Business Model; Emotions; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Standards; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Trust in Agency." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 13, no. 3 (September 2004): 375–404.
      • June 2004
      • Article

      Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
      We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
      Keywords: Markets; Financial Liquidity; Price; Trade; Sales; Equity; Information; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Accounting Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." Journal of Financial Markets 7, no. 3 (June 2004): 271–299.
      • February 2004
      • Case

      Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC

      By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur
      An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers; Distribution Channels; Mathematical Methods; Valuation
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      Raman, Ananth, and Vishal Gaur. "Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC." Harvard Business School Case 604-085, February 2004.
      • February 2004 (Revised March 2004)
      • Case

      Cartwright Lumber Company

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The Cartwright Lumber Co. faces a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details
      Keywords: Growth Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Financing and Loans; Corporate Finance; Construction Industry; Forest Products Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Cartwright Lumber Company." Harvard Business School Case 204-126, February 2004. (Revised March 2004.)
      • February 2004
      • Article

      Leader Behaviors and the Work Environment for Creativity: Perceived Leader Support

      By: Teresa M. Amabile, Elizabeth A. Schatzel, Giovanni B. Moneta and Steven J. Kramer
      This exploratory study investigated leader behaviors related to perceived leader support, encompassing both instrumental and socioemotional support. The study first established that leader support, proposed to be a key feature of the work environment for creativity,... View Details
      Keywords: Creativity; Leadership; Behavior; Working Conditions; Perception; Performance
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      Amabile, Teresa M., Elizabeth A. Schatzel, Giovanni B. Moneta, and Steven J. Kramer. "Leader Behaviors and the Work Environment for Creativity: Perceived Leader Support." Leadership Quarterly 15, no. 1 (February 2004): 5–32.
      • November 2003 (Revised March 2004)
      • Case

      Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom

      By: Mihir A. Desai and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho
      The Brazilian oil company, Petrobras, is evaluating the acquisition of an Argentine oil company, the Perez Companc Group (Pecom). The acquisition would increase Petrobras' oil reserves and expand its interests outside Brazil, a significant step for the largest company... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Non-Renewable Energy; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Corporate Governance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; State Ownership; Performance Evaluation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Energy Industry; Argentina; Brazil
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      Desai, Mihir A., and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho. "Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom." Harvard Business School Case 204-043, November 2003. (Revised March 2004.)
      • November 2003
      • Article

      The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

      By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
      The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
      • October 2003 (Revised January 2004)
      • Case

      Global Farmer and the Future of Soybean Production, The

      By: Ray A. Goldberg and Kevin M. Allison
      Three farmers from three different countries are looking at the global soybean system and how to position themselves in the future. View Details
      Keywords: Animal-Based Agribusiness; Trade; Globalized Markets and Industries; Food; Strategic Planning; Forecasting and Prediction; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry
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      Goldberg, Ray A., and Kevin M. Allison. "Global Farmer and the Future of Soybean Production, The." Harvard Business School Case 904-402, October 2003. (Revised January 2004.)
      • August 2003
      • Article

      When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

      By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets
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      Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
      • June 2003
      • Case

      Peabody Simpson at the Crossroads

      By: Rajiv Lal, Nitin Nohria and Leslie Freeman
      Three managing directors at Peabody Simpson had just returned from a firm-wide recruiting event at Columbia University, which they had covered together, as all were alumni. They were commiserating about having to submit revised forecasts to their division heads by the... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Recruitment; Reports; Organizational Design
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      Lal, Rajiv, Nitin Nohria, and Leslie Freeman. "Peabody Simpson at the Crossroads." Harvard Business School Case 503-112, June 2003.
      • May 2003
      • Case

      Renault-Nissan Alliance, The

      By: Michael Y. Yoshino and Perry Fagan
      On Wednesday, May 29, 2002, the board of directors of Renault-Nissan BV (RNBV) met for the first time to discuss the state of the alliance between Renault SA and Nissan Motors-two of the world's largest automakers. RNBV was a 50/50 joint venture company established in... View Details
      Keywords: Joint Ventures; Global Strategy; Organizational Culture; Alliances; Business or Company Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Auto Industry
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      Yoshino, Michael Y., and Perry Fagan. "Renault-Nissan Alliance, The." Harvard Business School Case 303-023, May 2003.
      • May 2003
      • Case

      Liz Claiborne, Inc.

      By: Rajiv Lal, Walter J. Salmon and Edie Prescott
      Discusses the business portfolio emphasis of a large multibrand manufacturer and the future of department stores as well as how relationships between manufacturers and key customers can be improved. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Brands and Branding; Production; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Lal, Rajiv, Walter J. Salmon, and Edie Prescott. "Liz Claiborne, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 503-098, May 2003.
      • March 2003
      • Article

      Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming

      By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman
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      Watkins, Michael D., and Max H. Bazerman. "Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming." Harvard Business Review 81, no. 3 (March 2003). (Reprinted in H. Balanoff (Ed.), Public Administration, McGraw-Hill, 2004.)
      • February 2003 (Revised October 2003)
      • Case

      Cable Data Systems

      By: Paul W. Marshall and Todd H Thedinga
      Describes the operating challenges of Cable Data Systems (CDS), a minority-owned cable installation company with a dual mission of maximizing profits and providing employment opportunities to minorities in urban markets. Following the merger of two cable installation... View Details
      Keywords: Selection and Staffing; Employment; Forecasting and Prediction; Urban Scope; Cost Management; Infrastructure; Labor Unions; Demand and Consumers; Demographics; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Boston
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      Marshall, Paul W., and Todd H Thedinga. "Cable Data Systems." Harvard Business School Case 803-132, February 2003. (Revised October 2003.)
      • 2003
      • Chapter

      Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation

      By: Josh Lerner and Paul A. Gompers
      This chapter seeks to understand the implications of the recent decline in venture activity for innovation. It argues that the situation may not be as grim as it initially appears. While there are many reasons for believing that on average venture capital has a... View Details
      Keywords: Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Business Cycles; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Lerner, Josh, and Paul A. Gompers. "Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation." In Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 3, edited by Adam B. Jaffe, Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern, 1–28. MIT Press, 2003.
      • December 2002 (Revised February 2003)
      • Case

      Broken Trust: Role of Professionals in the Enron Debacle

      By: Ashish Nanda
      Discusses the role of professionals in the Enron debacle. Argues that professionals failed to prevent or predict Enron's collapse because of the conflicts of interest they faced. Concludes with observations on management and regulation of conflicts of interest facing... View Details
      Keywords: Conflict of Interests; Trust; Management Teams; Energy Industry
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      Nanda, Ashish. "Broken Trust: Role of Professionals in the Enron Debacle." Harvard Business School Case 903-084, December 2002. (Revised February 2003.)
      • December 2002
      • Case

      National Economic Accounting: Past, Present, and Future

      By: David A. Moss and Sarah A. Brennan
      Presents the fundamentals of GDP accounting (including definitions, etc.), examines the history of national accounting, and surveys the international debate over "Green GDP." The first section explains the basic rules and definitions of national economic accounting and... View Details
      Keywords: History; Natural Environment; Quality; Accounting; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Economy; United States
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      Moss, David A., and Sarah A. Brennan. "National Economic Accounting: Past, Present, and Future." Harvard Business School Case 703-026, December 2002.
      • December 2002
      • Article

      The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows

      By: K. A. Froot and J. Donohue
      Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Financial Services Industry
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      Froot, K. A., and J. Donohue. "The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows." Emerging Markets Review 3, no. 4 (December 2002): 338–364. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 9241, HBS Working Paper no. 03-035, September 2002.)
      • October 2002
      • Exercise

      Luster Paint Corporation, The

      By: Janice H. Hammond
      Describes a marketing director about to launch a new process for demand forecasting. Provides data that allow students to do a multivariable regression analysis. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Management Practices and Processes; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
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      Hammond, Janice H. "Luster Paint Corporation, The." Harvard Business School Exercise 603-078, October 2002.
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