Publications

01 Mar 2018
What Do You Think?

Two Decades Later, is the 'New Economy' Finally Here?

“Many decisions, judgments, and forecasts now made by humans should be turned over to algorithms Even though machine learning systems still lack common sense, they are accomplishing ‘useful work’ and are advancing rapidly.” The massive... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

June 2012
Article

Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit

December 2012
Article

Evidence on the Use of Unverifiable Estimates in Required Goodwill Impairment

By: Karthik Ramanna and Ross L. Watts

SFAS 142 requires managers to estimate the current fair value of goodwill to determine goodwill write-offs. In promulgating the standard, the FASB predicted managers will, on average, use the fair value estimates to convey private information on future cash flows. The... View Details

Keywords: Goodwill Impairment; Fair-value Accounting; FASB; SFAS 142; Fair Value Accounting; Standards; Cash Flow; Agency Theory; Motivation and Incentives; Forecasting and Prediction; Goodwill Accounting

SSRN

Article

Measuring the Effectiveness of Competition in Defense Procurement: A Survey of the Empirical Literature

By: James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao

This article surveys the literature that has attempted to measure competition's effects on defense procurement. The focus is on conceptual underpinnings of models rather than technical aspects of estimation procedures. While providing valuable insight, the models are... View Details

Keywords: Performance Effectiveness; Competition; Surveys; Value; Economics; Forecasting and Prediction; Programs; Power and Influence; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

September 1992
Case

Vintage Directions, Inc.

By: Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on the problem of determining whether to continue with a start-up after the first market test. The company has seen product success but is far from break-even and needs additional financing. Focuses on opportunity analysis and the use of market data to assess... View Details

Keywords: Product Launch; Product Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Business or Company Management

2023
Working Paper

The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities

By: David S. Scharfstein and Sergey Chernenko

We show that the use of algorithms to predict race has significant limitations in measuring and understanding the sources of racial disparities in finance, economics, and other contexts. First, we derive theoretically the direction and magnitude of measurement bias in... View Details

Keywords: Racial Disparity; Paycheck Protection Program; Measurement Error; AI and Machine Learning; Race; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result

SSRN

August 2008
Article

Economic Links and Predictable Returns

By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini

This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details

Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

01 Nov 2016
First Look

First Look - November 1, 2016

within their private networks, who then transmit the information to arm’s length analysts outside the network. Specifically, we show that firms with more connected analysts have more accurate consensus forecasts and lower View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

09 Mar 2010
First Look

First Look: March 9

frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

20 Mar 2020
Research & Ideas

How Small Businesses Can Survive the Coronavirus Outbreak

businesses often have less than 20 days’ worth. While forecasts vary, many public health experts don’t expect the coronavirus outbreak to subside for at least eight weeks, assuming that social distancing and other mitigation efforts can... View Details

Keywords: by Danielle Kost; Service; Food & Beverage

09 Mar 2016
Lessons from the Classroom

In This Classroom, Beer Can Improve Your Grade

harder for breweries to fall into bailout loans, which happened to many teams last year, Casadesus-Masanell says. Enhanced graphics include waterfall charts for just about every metric imaginable on a team’s own brewery and its competitors. Teams can drill down via a... View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Education; Food & Beverage

06 Mar 2013
What Do You Think?

Who Should Manage Our Work Time?

laid the blame at the foot of "an engineer who had difficulty forecasting simple activities and (the) time to accomplish them." Joseph Mello commented that " part of the problem comes from the view of an organization as a... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model

February 2004
Case

Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC

By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur

An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers; Distribution Channels; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

March 1993
Case

Clarion Optical Co.

By: Michael J. Roberts and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on two individuals' attempts to purchase Clarion Optical Co. Forces students to consider alternative proposals for financing the purchase; generate pro forma cash flows to assess the feasibility of these proposals; estimate the sources and magnitude of... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

21 Jul 2015
First Look

First Look: July 21, 2015

Across three studies, we show that gift givers mis-predict appreciation for socially responsible gifts and that their mis-predictions depend on the nature of their relationship to the recipient. Drawing on research on affective View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

September 1995 (Revised April 1999)
Case

Exporting American Culture

By: Joseph L. Badaracco Jr. and Jerry Useem

A large entertainment company, extensively criticized for producing violent, offensive, and anti-social material, is considering whether to sell its material to a semi-illegal operation that is beaming satellite TV into Turkey. The opportunity raises many questions... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Media; Business and Community Relations; Opportunities; Social Issues; Media and Broadcasting Industry

15 Apr 2008
First Look

First Look: April 15, 2008

specializing in building and managing prisons. Students must assess the firm's strategy and risks, evaluate key financial reports, derive forecasts of future performance, and use these forecasts to value the... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

June 2019 (Revised September 2024)
Case

Parrot: Navigating the Nascent Drone Industry

By: Rory M. McDonald, Emilie Billaud and Vincent Dessain

In 2018, Henri Seydoux, CEO and Founder of Parrot, believed that his company was at an inflection point in its history. Parrot had been a European leader in consumer electronics since the 1990s, first developing Bluetooth kits for cars before moving on to electronic... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Corporate Strategy; Technological Innovation; Leading Change; Competitive Advantage; Information Technology; Competitive Strategy; Consumer Products Industry; Electronics Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Technology Industry; Video Game Industry; Europe; France; Paris