Publications

July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
Background Note

Note on Comparative Advantage

By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman

Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory

November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion

By: John T. Gourville

One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

Fast Answer

Field Course: Private Equity Projects and Ecosystems: Company, Industry, Market and Transaction Research

trend and forecast coverage across 10 major commercial real estate sectors, 275+ markets, and 3,000+ submarkets. Includes market transactions and performance trends. FactSet
A comprehensive platform used to analyze financial data... View Details

19 Aug 2008
First Look

First Look: August 19, 2008

demand to underpin the link across three features of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

May 2021
Case

Roku 2021

By: David B. Yoffie and Daniel Fisher

This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and streaming media (that is, Look Forward) by... View Details

Keywords: Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Media and Broadcasting Industry

Article

Big Names or Big Ideas: Do Peer-Review Panels Select the Best Science Proposals?

By: Danielle Li and Leila Agha

This paper examines the success of peer-review panels in predicting the future quality of proposed research. We construct new data to track publication, citation, and patenting outcomes associated with more than 130,000 research project (R01) grants funded by the U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Patents; Research; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Business and Government Relations; United States

September 2011
Article

How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?

The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and S&P, leading to longstanding legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

18 Jan 2012
News

Charter Supporter

headquartered in Waterloo, Wisconsin. While there, she set up Trek’s sales and distribution companies across Europe and worked in forecasting and planning. Since 2007, she has devoted her energy and skills full time to the nonprofit... View Details

Keywords: Arts, Sports, Language, Driving, and Other Schools; Educational Services

Web

Field Course: Investing for Impact - Course Catalog

small business partners, making sure partners understand the purpose and process of diligence along the way. The final deliverable is a presentation of the team’s recommendation to an Investment Committee, which will include: an analysis of the existing business,... View Details

03 Oct 2016
Blog Post

What I Learned in the Peek Weekend STEM Cohort

lasting friendships through Peek. I find myself thinking about what I learned between Peek and CORe on a regular basis. At work, I am in a roll that requires much engineering knowledge, but also places great emphasis on financials as I am accountable for managing... View Details

28 Jan 2014
First Look

First Look: January 28

Publications August 2013 Princeton University Press Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters By: Friedman, Walter A. Abstract—The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

08 Jun 2010
First Look

First Look: June 8

to accomplish the following: mine your sales data to identify "homerun" products you're missing; reinvent your forecasting and pricing strategies; build end-to-end agility into your supply chain; establish incentives that align... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

February 2013
Case

Recorded Future: Analyzing Internet Ideas About What Comes Next

Recorded Future is a "big data" startup company that uses Internet data to make predictions about events, people, and entities. The company primarily serves government intelligence agencies, but has some private sector clients and is considering taking on more. The... View Details

Keywords: Big Data; Analytics; Internet; Analytics and Data Science; Internet and the Web; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Startups; Information Technology Industry

May 2011
Article

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias

Read Now

October 2009
Article

Managing Risk in the New World

By: Robert S. Kaplan, Anette Mikes, Robert Simons, Peter Tufano and Michael Hofmann Jr.

Five experts gathered recently to discuss the future of enterprise risk management: Kaplan, the Baker Foundation Professor at Harvard Business School, who with his colleague David Norton developed the balanced scorecard; Mikes, an assistant professor at HBS who studies... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Capital Structure; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Risk Management

August 2018
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction