Publications

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details

Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) case. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds two tree-based models using historical LendingClub data to predict, with some probability, whether borrower will repay or default on his loan.
... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Decision Trees; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

2008
Book

Predictable Surprises

By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

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January 1995
Background Note

A Note on Distribution of Venture Investments

By: Josh Lerner

Venture capitalists typically exit investments by distributing shares to investors. These transfers pose challenges for these investors. Predictions and evidence about the behavior of stock prices of firms around the time of these distributions are presented. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Stocks; Investment; Price

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March 2022
Case

Auto Mag (Abridged)

By: David E. Bell

A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to... View Details

Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

April 2025 (Revised May 2025)
Background Note

Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap

By: E. Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller

Startups as well as existing firms recognize the need to invest in order to acquire customers for their new ventures. And as each customer is expected at some point to have generated sufficient gross margins to cover their CAC, management expects that, soon enough, the... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Customers; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Business or Company Management

July 2019
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch

01 Sep 2014
News

Faculty Q&A: Cents and Sensibilities

forecast for revenue by an enormous amount and that requires some adjustment. We’ll have to either raise taxes or cut spending. People don’t always understand the technical details of these policies, but that’s really not the point. The... View Details

Keywords: April White; faculty research; writing

2017
Working Paper

Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers

By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt

Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and... View Details

Keywords: Fund Managers; Experience and Expertise; Performance; Forecasting and Prediction