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2008
Book

Predictable Surprises

By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

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27 Feb 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, February 27, 2018

percent increase in housing prices. Moreover, Yelp measures of local business activity provide leading indicators for housing price changes and help to forecast which neighborhoods are gentrifying. Download working paper:... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

16 Oct 2013
Op-Ed

Response to Readers: Combating Climate Change with Nuclear Power and Fracking

With more than 7,500 views and 180-plus tweets, I want to thank everyone for taking the time to read the original HBS Working Knowledge piece, The Case for Combating Climate Change with Nuclear Power and Fracking, and, in particular, for sharing your thoughts with one... View Details

Keywords: by Joe Lassiter; Energy; Utilities

December 2002
Case

National Economic Accounting: Past, Present, and Future

By: David A. Moss and Sarah A. Brennan

Presents the fundamentals of GDP accounting (including definitions, etc.), examines the history of national accounting, and surveys the international debate over "Green GDP." The first section explains the basic rules and definitions of national economic accounting and... View Details

Keywords: History; Natural Environment; Quality; Accounting; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Economy; United States

23 Jun 2009
First Look

First Look: June 23

attention to the returns of firms that do not issue at all, suggesting that issuance is partly an attempt to cater to broad time-varying patterns in characteristics mispricing. Our approach helps forecast returns to portfolios based on... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

17 Sep 2024
Cold Call Podcast

Fawn Weaver’s Entrepreneurial Journey as an Outsider in the Spirits Industry

Keywords: Re: Hise O. Gibson; Food & Beverage; Tourism

November 1994 (Revised February 1996)
Case

Toy World, Inc.

By: W. Carl Kester

A shift from seasonal to level production of toys will change the seasonal cycle of Toy World's working capital needs and necessitate new bank credit arrangements. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Working Capital; Business Cycles; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Financial Statements

June 2024
Teaching Note

Roku 2021

By: David B. Yoffie

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 721-480. This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Media and Broadcasting Industry

March 2008 (Revised August 2008)
Supplement

Medtronic Vision 2010 (CW)

By: Lynda M. Applegate and James Zeitler

Keywords: Business Plan; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Opportunities; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry

October 2002
Exercise

Luster Paint Corporation, The

By: Janice H. Hammond

Describes a marketing director about to launch a new process for demand forecasting. Provides data that allow students to do a multivariable regression analysis. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Management Practices and Processes; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods

June 2005
Article

Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper further tests Romer's (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott's (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Developing Countries and Economies; Inflation and Deflation

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February 1994 (Revised May 1995)
Case

Metallgesellschaft AG

By: David F. Hawkins and Guy J. Weyns

Metallgesellschaft AG is a commodity and engineering conglomerate based in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Metallgesellschaft Corp., a New York based subsidiary of the group, has made oil trading and hedging errors that could drive the group into insolvency. The impact of... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Audits; Business Conglomerates; Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Non-Renewable Energy

Article

Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence

By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, David Robinson and S. Viswanathan

To test recent theories suggesting that valuation errors affect merger activity, we develop a decomposition that breaks the market-to-book ratio (M/B) into three components: the firm-specific pricing deviation from short-run industry pricing; sector-wide, short-run... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Theory; Behavior

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January 2000 (Revised May 2007)
Case

Dressen

By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeremy Cott

Divisional management must decide whether to support a leveraged buyout by a private equity group and, if so, what percent of ownership should go to the various partners involved. The appropriateness of the financing structure and the value of the equity depend on the... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Capital Structure; Valuation; Ownership Stake; Forecasting and Prediction

August 1993 (Revised April 1998)
Case

Filene's Basement

By: David E. Bell and Dinny Starr

Filene's Basement is in the process of deciding where, and if, to locate two new stores in its new Chicago area of operations. The existing Chicago area stores have been performing well, however, management is concerned with over saturation of the market. At the time... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Growth Management; Marketing Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Business Processes

18 Sep 2006
Research & Ideas

When Words Get in the Way: The Failure of Fiscal Language

future in order to forecast what future generations are likely to pay. That's not easy, but it's imperative, Kotlikoff says. Otherwise, the answer one gets about policy will depend on the labels being used. Economic Voodoo If this paper... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna

February 2022
Teaching Note

Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI

By: Navid Mojir

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053. View Details

Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey

June 2021
Technical Note

Introduction to Linear Regression

By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This technical note introduces (from an applied point of view) the theory and application of simple and multiple linear regression. The motivation for the model is introduced, as well as how to interpret the summary output with regard to prediction and statistical... View Details

Keywords: Linear Regression; Regression; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk and Uncertainty; Theory; Compensation and Benefits; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science

March 2005
Case

Henkel Iberica (A)

By: Francisco de Asis Martinez-Jerez, V.G. Narayanan and Lisa Brem

In 2002, Esteban Garriga, customer service director at Henkel Iberica, questions whether Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) would help manage retail promotions and limit their impact on the stock-outs and obsolete inventory. Describes the... View Details

Keywords: Business Subsidiaries; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Distribution Channels; Strategic Planning; Commercialization; Valuation; Rail Industry; Germany; Spain

October 1993 (Revised February 1995)
Case

Dendrite International

By: Frank V. Cespedes and Marie Bell

Dendrite International is a $23 million (1992 revenues) supplier of sales automation software to pharmaceuticals companies in Europe, Japan, and the United States. The firm's strategy has depended on being a full-service supplier to multinational firms. Impending... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Audits; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Sales; Competitive Advantage; Information Technology Industry; Japan; Europe; United States

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