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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (1,275)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,050)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (802)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (1,275)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,050)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (802)
← Page 42 of 1,275 Results →
  • January–February 2023
  • Article

Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan
The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry
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Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu, and Najat Khan. "Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen." INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 53, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 70–84.
  • July 2019
  • Article

I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Ioannis Evangelidis
People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen... View Details
Keywords: Self-other Difference; Social Perception; Inference-making; Preferences; Consumer Behavior; Prediction; Prediction Error; Decision Choices and Conditions; Perception; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
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Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Ioannis Evangelidis. "I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice." Special Issue on The Cognitive Science of Political Thought. Cognition 188 (July 2019): 85–97.
  • October 2013
  • Article

How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies

By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya
While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input... View Details
Keywords: Supply Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods
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Puranam, Phanish, Ranjay Gulati, and Sourav Bhattacharya. "How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies." Strategic Management Journal 34, no. 10 (October 2013): 1145–1161.
  • May 2006
  • Case

Nokia in 2003

By: Paul M. Healy
Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations.... View Details
Keywords: Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Evaluation; Problems and Challenges; Electronics Industry
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Healy, Paul M. "Nokia in 2003." Harvard Business School Case 106-067, May 2006.
  • Article

The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction
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Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
  • 2009
  • Case

What People Want (and How to Predict It)

By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris
Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details
Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Publishing Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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Davenport, Thomas H., and Jeanne G. Harris. "What People Want (and How to Predict It)." 2009.
  • 2011
  • Working Paper

From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management

By: Anette Mikes
For two decades, risk management has been gaining ground in banking. In light of the recent financial crisis, several commentators concluded that the continuing expansion of risk measurement is dysfunctional (Taleb, 2007; Power, 2009). This paper asks whether the... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; Organizational Culture; Situation or Environment; Banking Industry
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Mikes, Anette. "From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-069, January 2011. (Revised March 2011.)
  • December 1998 (Revised February 1999)
  • Case

i2 Technologies, Inc.

By: Ananth Raman and Jasjit Singh
Describes the emergence and growth of i2 Technologies and the supply chain planning software industry. In December 1998, i2's market capitalization was in excess of $2 billion; the supply chain planning software industry had annual sales of approximately $1 billion and... View Details
Keywords: Information Technology; Applications and Software; Supply Chain Management; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology Industry
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Raman, Ananth, and Jasjit Singh. "i2 Technologies, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 699-042, December 1998. (Revised February 1999.)
  • August 2003
  • Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets
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Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
  • November 2003
  • Article

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
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Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
  • 12 Jul 2011
  • First Look

First Look: July 12

debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 01 Jun 2013
  • News

Brick by Brick

globalize, the financial picture grew worse. One problem: The company's growing complexity was choking it. Adding more bricks made products harder to assemble, forecasts harder to determine, and inventory more difficult to manage. The toy... View Details
Keywords: toys; Miscellaneous Store Retailers; Retail Trade
  • December 2002
  • Article

The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows

By: K. A. Froot and J. Donohue
Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Financial Services Industry
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Froot, K. A., and J. Donohue. "The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows." Emerging Markets Review 3, no. 4 (December 2002): 338–364. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 9241, HBS Working Paper no. 03-035, September 2002.)
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry
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Frankel, Alexander P., Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-074, May 2023. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31290, May 2023.)
  • October–December 2022
  • Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
  • April 2011
  • Teaching Note

Prediction Markets at Google (TN)

Teaching Note for 607088. View Details
Keywords: Interests; Forecasting and Prediction; Market Participation; Information Technology Industry
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Coles, Peter A. "Prediction Markets at Google (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 911-070, April 2011.
  • September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
  • Exercise

Exercise on Estimation

By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics
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Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
  • winter 1996
  • Article

The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables

By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback
Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction
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Kaplan, S. N., and R. S. Ruback. "The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables." Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 8, no. 4 (winter 1996): 45–60.
  • 2001
  • Working Paper

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
Keywords: Investment; Equity; Stocks; Price; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 8750, December 2001. (First draft in 2001.)
  • July 2014
  • Article

Accounting for Crises

By: Venky Nagar and Gwen Yu
We provide among the first empirical evidence consistent with recent macro global-game crisis models, which show that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises (e.g., Angeletos and Werning, 2006; Morris and Shin, 2002, 2003). In these models,... View Details
Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Mathematical Methods; Game Theory; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting; Financial Crisis
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Nagar, Venky, and Gwen Yu. "Accounting for Crises." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6, no. 3 (July 2014): 184–213.
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