Publications

09 Sep 2008
First Look

First Look: September 9, 2008

contribute to understanding the contingent effects of policy on organizations and the rise of large corporations in the twentieth century. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/09-025.pdf Over-reaction to Demand Changes Due to Subjective and Quantitative... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

28 Sep 2010
First Look

First Look: September 28, 2010

information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast errors of other firms. We also find... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Web

Supply Chain Analytics - Course Catalog

managing product availability, especially in a context of rapid product proliferation, short product life cycles, and global networks of suppliers and customers. Hence, topics not examined in RC TOM such as inventory management, distribution economics, and demand View Details

April 21, 2023
Article

When Scenario Planning Fails

By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Eemil Rupponen

How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can... View Details

Keywords: Planning; Crisis Management; Organizational Structure; Forecasting and Prediction; System Shocks; Organizational Change and Adaptation

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February 2001
Case

ALWAYSi

By: Paul A. Gompers and Sergio Rattner

Anthony Soohoo, COO at ALWAYSi, an independent film distributor, is preparing projections for the company. Soohoo must decide which revenue streams the company should pursue. The firm is faced with a variety of attractive opportunities. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Business Strategy; Revenue; Film Entertainment; Strategic Planning; Business Startups; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

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24 Jan 2012
First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2023
Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result

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2010
Working Paper

A New Model of Leadership (PDF File of Keynote Slides)

By: Michael C. Jensen and Allan L. Scherr

In this paper we provide a new definition of leadership that gives organizations and individuals access to new power, performance and accomplishment. In our model leadership consists of four critical elements The creation of a vision for the future that represents a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Dissemination; Leadership; Goals and Objectives; System

Fast Answer

Field Course: Private Equity Projects and Ecosystems: Company, Industry, Market and Transaction Research

trend and forecast coverage across 10 major commercial real estate sectors, 275+ markets, and 3,000+ submarkets. Includes market transactions and performance trends. FactSet
A comprehensive platform used to analyze financial data... View Details

01 Mar 2012
News

Social Investing Pioneers

rising to a maximum of 13.3 percent, but only if the reoffending rate is reduced by at least 7.5 percent. Even at the highest rate, the government is forecast to pay out only about a third of its cost savings. Fifteen months into the... View Details

Keywords: Roger Thompson; Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles; Finance; Social Assistance; Health, Social Assistance

November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion

By: John T. Gourville

One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

February 1994 (Revised May 1995)
Case

Metallgesellschaft AG

By: David F. Hawkins and Guy J. Weyns

Metallgesellschaft AG is a commodity and engineering conglomerate based in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Metallgesellschaft Corp., a New York based subsidiary of the group, has made oil trading and hedging errors that could drive the group into insolvency. The impact of... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Audits; Business Conglomerates; Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Non-Renewable Energy

Article

Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence

By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, David Robinson and S. Viswanathan

To test recent theories suggesting that valuation errors affect merger activity, we develop a decomposition that breaks the market-to-book ratio (M/B) into three components: the firm-specific pricing deviation from short-run industry pricing; sector-wide, short-run... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Theory; Behavior

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January 2000 (Revised May 2007)
Case

Dressen

By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeremy Cott

Divisional management must decide whether to support a leveraged buyout by a private equity group and, if so, what percent of ownership should go to the various partners involved. The appropriateness of the financing structure and the value of the equity depend on the... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Capital Structure; Valuation; Ownership Stake; Forecasting and Prediction

August 1993 (Revised April 1998)
Case

Filene's Basement

By: David E. Bell and Dinny Starr

Filene's Basement is in the process of deciding where, and if, to locate two new stores in its new Chicago area of operations. The existing Chicago area stores have been performing well, however, management is concerned with over saturation of the market. At the time... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Growth Management; Marketing Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Business Processes

December 2002
Case

National Economic Accounting: Past, Present, and Future

By: David A. Moss and Sarah A. Brennan

Presents the fundamentals of GDP accounting (including definitions, etc.), examines the history of national accounting, and surveys the international debate over "Green GDP." The first section explains the basic rules and definitions of national economic accounting and... View Details

Keywords: History; Natural Environment; Quality; Accounting; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Economy; United States

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

September 2008 (Revised June 2011)
Case

Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents

By: Elie Ofek

Marketers are often tasked with exploring the factors that impact the long-run adoption of a new product or technology. The new product under consideration here is the drug-eluting stent: a device which props open a clogged artery to the heart and then releases... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Adoption; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry

February 2013
Case

Recorded Future: Analyzing Internet Ideas About What Comes Next

Recorded Future is a "big data" startup company that uses Internet data to make predictions about events, people, and entities. The company primarily serves government intelligence agencies, but has some private sector clients and is considering taking on more. The... View Details

Keywords: Big Data; Analytics; Internet; Analytics and Data Science; Internet and the Web; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Startups; Information Technology Industry