Publications

Article

Big Names or Big Ideas: Do Peer-Review Panels Select the Best Science Proposals?

By: Danielle Li and Leila Agha

This paper examines the success of peer-review panels in predicting the future quality of proposed research. We construct new data to track publication, citation, and patenting outcomes associated with more than 130,000 research project (R01) grants funded by the U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Patents; Research; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Business and Government Relations; United States

September 2011
Article

How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?

The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and S&P, leading to longstanding legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

11 Jan 2011
First Look

First Look: Jan. 11

Publication:Journal of Finance (forthcoming) Abstract We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry.... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

01 Mar 2012
News

Social Investing Pioneers

rising to a maximum of 13.3 percent, but only if the reoffending rate is reduced by at least 7.5 percent. Even at the highest rate, the government is forecast to pay out only about a third of its cost savings. Fifteen months into the... View Details

Keywords: Roger Thompson; Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles; Finance; Social Assistance; Health, Social Assistance

January 1995
Background Note

A Note on Distribution of Venture Investments

By: Josh Lerner

Venture capitalists typically exit investments by distributing shares to investors. These transfers pose challenges for these investors. Predictions and evidence about the behavior of stock prices of firms around the time of these distributions are presented. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Stocks; Investment; Price

March 2022
Case

Auto Mag (Abridged)

By: David E. Bell

A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to... View Details

Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

01 Jul 2014
First Look

First Look: July 1

firm-level expected returns and expected profitability are time-varying but highly persistent; 2) forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

2017
Working Paper

Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers

By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt

Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and... View Details

Keywords: Fund Managers; Experience and Expertise; Performance; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

Web

Field Course: Investing for Impact - Course Catalog

which will include: an analysis of the existing business, market sizing, financial forecasts and financing plan, and an assessment of opportunities and risks. Some companies may be recommended for an investment by the HBS Impact... View Details

May 2007
Article

Aspects of Endowment: A Query Theory of Value Construction

By: Eric Johnson, Gerald Häubl and Anat Keinan

How do people judge the monetary value of objects? One clue is provided by the typical endowment study (D. Kahneman, J. L. Knetsch, & R. H. Thaler, 1991), in which participants are randomly given either a good, such as a coffee mug, that they may later sell ("sellers")... View Details

Keywords: Profit; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory; Valuation; Loss; Ownership; Decision Choices and Conditions

March 2002 (Revised December 2002)
Background Note

A Note on Corporate Venturing and New Business Creation

By: David A. Garvin

Presents an introduction and overview of corporate venturing. Describes the need for companies to create new businesses, the stages in the process, predictable problems and challenges, the strengths and weaknesses of alternative approaches such as internal venture... View Details

Keywords: Business Plan; Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Problems and Challenges

24 Jan 2012
First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

February 2018 (Revised December 2020)
Case

People Analytics at Teach For America (A)

By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley

As of mid-2016, national nonprofit Teach For America (TFA) had struggled with three consecutive years of declining application totals, and senior management was re-examining the organization's strategy, including recruitment and selection. A few months earlier, former... View Details

Keywords: Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

28 Jan 2014
First Look

First Look: January 28

Publications August 2013 Princeton University Press Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters By: Friedman, Walter A. Abstract—The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

08 Jun 2010
First Look

First Look: June 8

to accomplish the following: mine your sales data to identify "homerun" products you're missing; reinvent your forecasting and pricing strategies; build end-to-end agility into your supply chain; establish incentives that align... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

27 Feb 2007
First Look

First Look: February 27, 2007

Flows," revised from NBER Working Paper No. 8472, September 2001, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 03-006, 2002, revised December 2005) Abstract We examine the forecasting power of international portfolio flows for local... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

October 1990 (Revised May 1994)
Case

Confederated Pulp & Paper

By: David E. Bell

A rewritten version of an old case that updates the dates and prices and simplifies the economics. The issue is still one of determining a suitable inventory of wood for the mill to last through the winter. View Details

Keywords: History; Supply Chain Management; Spending; Forecasting and Prediction; Economic Growth; Information Management; Pulp and Paper Industry