Predictability - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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February 2012
Article

Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation

By: Kathleen L. McGinn, Katherine L. Milkman and Markus Noth

We study the framing effects of communication on payoffs in multiparty bargaining. Communication has been shown to be more truthful and revealing than predicted in equilibrium. Because talk is preference revealing, it may effectively frame bargaining around a logic of... View Details

Keywords: Competition; Negotiation Process; Fairness; Negotiation Types; Interpersonal Communication; Game Theory; Cooperation

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October 2008
Article

The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts

The 1990s were characterized by substantial increases in the performance of and investor reliance on financial analysts. Because managers possess superior private information and issue forecasts to align investors' expectations with their own, we predict that... View Details

Keywords: Information; Performance Expectations; Earnings Management; Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction

September 2010
Article

Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman

Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details

Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States

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February 2025
Tutorial

Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk

By: Michael W. Toffel and Spencer Glendon

In this compelling video, Spencer Glendon, founder of Probable Futures and Executive Fellow at Harvard Business School, describes the profound implications of climate change for businesses, the economy, and societies around the world. Drawing from his background in... View Details

Keywords: Modeling; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

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2017
Working Paper

Exploring the Relationship between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities: A Google Chrome Case

By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Dan Sturtevant and Lee Doolan

Employing software metrics, such as size and complexity, for predicting defects has been given a lot of attention over the years and has proven very useful. However, the few studies looking at software architecture and vulnerabilities are limited in scope and findings.... View Details

Keywords: Software; Architecture; Coupling; Vulnerabilities; Applications and Software; Complexity; Measurement and Metrics

03 Oct 2019
News

How to Market Innovations to Small Mid-Sized Businesses

January 2023
Article

Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights

By: Alvaro Calderon, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini

Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the United States, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized... View Details

Keywords: Civil Rights; Great Migration; History; Race; Rights; Prejudice and Bias; Government Legislation

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September 2016
Article

Bounded Awareness: Implications for Ethical Decision Making

By: Max Bazerman and Ovul Sezer

In many of the business scandals of the new millennium, the perpetrators were surrounded by people who could have recognized the misbehavior, yet failed to notice it. To explain such inaction, management scholars have been developing the area of behavioral ethics and... View Details

Keywords: Ethics

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Article

Asset Accumulation and Labor Force Participation of Disability Insurance Applicants

By: Pian Shu

This paper provides empirical evidence of the existence of forward-looking asset-accumulation behavior among disability-insurance applicants, previously examined only in the theoretical literature. Using panel data from the RAND Health and Retirement Study, I show that... View Details

Keywords: Disability Insurance; Asset Accumulation; Labor Force Participation; Assets; Behavior; Employment; Insurance; Insurance Industry; United States

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2009
Working Paper

Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation

By: Kathleen L. McGinn, Katherine L Milkman and Markus Noth

We study the framing effects of communication in multiparty bargaining. Communication has been shown to be more truthful and revealing than predicted in equilibrium. Because talk is preference-revealing, it may effectively frame bargaining around a logic of fairness or... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Competition; Negotiation Process; Negotiation Types; Fairness; Interpersonal Communication; Game Theory; Cooperation

July–September 2020
Article

Innovation Contest: Effect of Perceived Support for Learning on Participation

By: Olivia Jung, Andrea Blasco and Karim R. Lakhani

Background: Frontline staff are well positioned to conceive improvement opportunities based on first-hand knowledge of what works and does not work. The innovation contest may be a relevant and useful vehicle to elicit staff ideas. However, the success of the... View Details

Keywords: Contest; Innovation; Employee Engagement; Organizational Learning; Health Care; Health Care Delivery; Innovation and Invention; Organizations; Learning; Employees; Perception; Health Care and Treatment

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January 2025
Case

AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital

By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan

Ilya Kondrashov, CEO of Quantum Light Capital, was driven to harness AI for identifying high-potential scale-ups. Collaborating with Nik Storonsky, founder of Revolut, the duo observed that most venture capital (VC) decisions were heavily influenced by emotion, with... View Details

Teaching Interest

MBA Required Curriculum-- Strategy Course

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell

The objective of this course is to help students develop the skills for formulating strategy. It provides an understanding of:

A firm's operative environment and how to sustain competitive advantage.
How to generate superior value for customers... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage

2025
Working Paper

Trade Within Multinational Boundaries

By: Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Fariha Kamal and Zachary Kroff

We leverage newly linked data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to study transactions within U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs). We show that using administrative data on intrafirm trade allows us to correct for measurement error... View Details

Keywords: Multinational Enterprise; Input-output Linkages; Multinational Firms and Management; Trade; Supply Chain

2023
Other Unpublished Work

If 3 Was 9

By: Randolph B. Cohen

One determinant of where economies and markets are headed is how well we handle the climate crisis. Headlines on the climate tend to emphasize two points. First, average global temps are rising, with it being the hottest summer in 1,000 centuries per some estimates.... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Measurement and Metrics

Article

Pseudo-Set Framing

By: Kate Barasz, Leslie John, Elizabeth A. Keenan and Michael I. Norton

Pseudo-set framing—arbitrarily grouping items or tasks together as part of an apparent “set”—motivates people to reach perceived completion points. Pseudo-set framing changes gambling choices (Study 1), effort (Studies 2 and 3), giving behavior (Field Data and Study... View Details

Keywords: Framing Effects; Gestalt Psychology; Judgment; Judgments; Decision Making; Perception; Behavior

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August 2011
Article

The Jekyll and Hyde of Emotional Intelligence: Emotion-Regulation Knowledge Facilitates Prosocial and Interpersonally Deviant Behavior

By: Stéphane Côté, K. A. DeCelles, Julie M. McCarthy, Gerben A. Van Kleef and Ivona Hideg

Does emotional intelligence promote behavior that strictly benefits the greater good, or can it also advance interpersonal deviance? In the investigation reported here, we tested the possibility that a core facet of emotional intelligence—emotion-regulation... View Details

Keywords: Behavior; Emotions

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January–February 2013
Article

A Field Investigation of Multilevel Cynicism Toward Change

By: K. A. DeCelles, Paul E. Tesluk and Faye S. Taxman

Although most research on cynicism toward change (CTC) has been conceptualized at the individual level, we propose that CTC is better conceptualized as a multilevel phenomenon, acting as both an employee attitude and an organizational climate. We conducted a multilevel... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Leading Change; Change Management; Attitudes

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2014
Article

Notes from the Search for Deep Indicators in Services

By: James L. Heskett

Much of the research in the service sector over the last four decades has concerned itself with the search for deep indicators that explain service performance. This paper provides a brief retrospective of some of this research and illustrates the directions that this... View Details

Keywords: Service Delivery; Organizational Culture; Performance; Service Industry

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