Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(3,383)
- Faculty Publications (1,057)
- 2007
- Working Paper
Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting
By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
- Article
Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
- February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
- Supplement
Multifactor Models (CW)
By: Malcolm P. Baker
- January 2007 (Revised April 2008)
- Case
The Case of the Unidentified Industries - 2006
Helps students to understand how the characteristics of a business are reflected in its financial statements. View Details
- Article
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from... View Details
Keywords: Investment; Investment Return; Economics; Stocks; Capital; Business Earnings; Investment Portfolio; Investment Funds; Cost; Saving
- November 2006 (Revised March 2008)
- Case
Kendall Square Research Corporation
Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. Sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993 and the company sold stock to the public for the first time. Analysts forecast higher earnings for 1993, then the company's revenue recognition... View Details
- August 2006
- Case
Dreyer's Slow Churned(TM) Ice Cream
By: Noel H. Watson, Steven C. Wheelwright and Brian DeLacey
Examines capacity forecasting and planning in a complex new product introduction scenario. The introduction at Dreyer's, a large dairy snack manufacturer, involves not only a new product but a new manufacturing process and product package, thus implying a significant... View Details
- August 2006
- Article
Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
- August 2006
- Article
Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details
- 2006
- Working Paper
Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games
By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
- 2006
- Working Paper
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock... View Details
- May 2006
- Case
Nokia in 2003
By: Paul M. Healy
Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations.... View Details
- May 2006
- Article
Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models
By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
- February 2006 (Revised September 2007)
- Background Note
Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets
Discusses platform structure in new networked markets, that is, whether a market that exhibits network effects will be served by a single platform or by rival platforms. Defines "platforms" and "platform structure"; describes factors that influence the odds that a... View Details
- January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
- 2006
- Working Paper
On the Origin of Shared Beliefs (and Corporate Culture)
This paper shows why members of an organization often share similar beliefs. I argue that there are two mechanisms. First, when performance depends on making correct decisions, people prefer to work with others who share their beliefs and assumptions, since such... View Details
- December 2005
- Article
Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior
By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker
- October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
- Background Note
Calculating Free Cash Flows
By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details
- August 2005 (Revised September 2006)
- Case
Polyphonic HMI: Mixing Music and Math
By: Anita Elberse, Jehoshua Eliashberg and Julian Villanueva
In 2003, Mike McCready, CEO of Barcelona-based Polyphonic HMI, was preparing to launch an artificial intelligence tool that could create significant value for music businesses. The technology, referred to as Hit Song Science (HSS), analyzed the mathematical... View Details