Publications

September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
Exercise

Exercise on Estimation

By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville

This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics

winter 1996
Article

The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables

By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback

Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

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May 2022
Supplement

Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais

Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details

January 2010
Journal Article

A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere

Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition

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October 2024
Article

How to Use Sales Assessments

By: Frank V. Cespedes

Judging a person’s fit for a sales job is complex, and research shows that managers greatly overrate their ability to predict someone’s performance on the basis of interviews. Hence, using assessments is a growing trend in sales hiring and training. This article... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Sales

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August 1999
Article

Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

By: D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman

Keywords: Investment; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction

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November 1989 (Revised March 1992)
Background Note

Concept Testing

By: Robert J. Dolan

Describes concept testing products. Presents guidelines for effective design, execution, and interpretation of test procedures. Discusses limitations of these techniques and sets out the situations for which they are appropriate. View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

15 Jan 2013
First Look

First Look: January 15

improved forecast accuracy, the value of their research about the spun-off subsidiaries is more limited. For both diversified firms and their spun-off subsidiaries, analysts' research is more valuable when information asymmetry between... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2017
Working Paper

Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers

By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt

Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and... View Details

Keywords: Fund Managers; Experience and Expertise; Performance; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

October 2001 (Revised March 2002)
Background Note

Implicit Predictors of Consumer Behavior

By: Gerald Zaltman, Nancy Puccinelli, Kathryn A. Braun and Fred W Mast PHD

An important distinction is drawn in psychology between explicit and implicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge refers to consciously held beliefs about an individual or object that often draws on the remembering of experiences in the past. In contrast, implicit knowledge... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Knowledge Sharing; Consumer Behavior; Opportunities; Cognition and Thinking

September 2004
Article

Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Voting; Conflict of Interests; Capital; Government and Politics; Wages; Saving; Forecasting and Prediction

April 1991 (Revised October 1993)
Case

Cat Fight in the Pet Food Industry (A)

By: David J. Collis

Describes the pet food industry in the mid-eighties prior to the breakout of a major competitive battle as manufacturers fight for share. Illustrates how when there are benefits to play in multiple markets, competitors will take action in one market to preserve their... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Markets; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Ownership Stake; Competition; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry

24 Jan 2012
First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

24 Jan 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research: January 24, 2017

earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Mar 2013
First Look

First Look: March 5

issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs faced... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

07 Jun 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin

February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
Supplement

Multifactor Models (CW)

By: Malcolm P. Baker

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Cost of Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Performance Evaluation

December 1998
Background Note

Cash Management Practices in Small Companies

By: H. Kent Bowen, Andrew R. Jassy, Laurence E. Katz, Kevin E. Kelly and Baltej Kochar

Most small business managers claim that cash management is their leading concern. Often walking a tightrope between growth and illiquidity, small business managers face different cash management challenges than their counterparts in larger companies. Compared to larger... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Working Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Design; Cash; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Business Strategy