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      • Faculty Publications  (1,057)

      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • December 2007
      • Article

      The Malleability of Environmentalism

      By: Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni, Min Li, Leigh L. Thompson and Max Bazerman
      In this paper, we predict and find that self-perceptions of environmentalism are changed by subtle manipulations of context and, in turn, affect environmental behavior. In Study 1, we found that people exhibit greater positive assessments of their environmental... View Details
      Keywords: Research; Environmental Sustainability; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Identity; Perception; Personal Characteristics
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      Wade-Benzoni, Kimberly A., Min Li, Leigh L. Thompson, and Max Bazerman. "The Malleability of Environmentalism." Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy 7, no. 1 (December 2007).
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

      By: Walter A. Friedman
      A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career
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      Friedman, Walter A. "Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-037, November 2007.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      The Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization

      By: Walter A. Friedman
      Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the largest private economic forecasting agency in the period and published a great range of economic statistics in his weekly newsletters. As... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business History; Newsletters; Personal Development and Career; United States
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      Friedman, Walter A. "The Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-036, November 2007.
      • October 2007 (Revised January 2009)
      • Background Note

      Analyzing Relative Costs

      By: Hanna Halaburda and Jan W. Rivkin
      Introduces students to the technique of relative cost analysis, a core technique of strategists. Among the intricate quantitative analyses that strategists undertake, relative cost analysis may be the most common. The goal of a relative cost analysis is simply to... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Mathematical Methods; Competition; Competitive Advantage
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      Halaburda, Hanna, and Jan W. Rivkin. "Analyzing Relative Costs." Harvard Business School Background Note 708-462, October 2007. (Revised January 2009.)
      • October 2007 (Revised February 2008)
      • Module Note

      Evaluating M&A Deals: Introduction to the Deal NPV

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
      Introduces a framework for evaluating mergers and acquisitions. Assumes that the criterion of a good deal is that it creates value for shareholders; i.e., has a positive deal NPV. Looks at the deal NPV from both the buyer's and seller's point of view. Explains how a... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Value Creation
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Evaluating M&A Deals: Introduction to the Deal NPV." Harvard Business School Module Note 208-060, October 2007. (Revised February 2008.)
      • October 2007
      • Background Note

      Price Formation

      By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford
      Investigates how prices are formed in competitive capital markets. Focuses on a single security called AOE. Students compete with computer traders and each other for market making and informed trading profits. Participants receive a variety of public news in the form... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Markets; Price; Profit; Corporate Disclosure; Newsletters; Industry Structures; Business Processes; Competitive Strategy
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      Coval, Joshua D., and Erik Stafford. "Price Formation." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-040, October 2007.
      • Fourth Quarter 2007
      • Article

      Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

      By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
      This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details
      Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation
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      Gray, Dale . F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk." Special Issue on Credit Analysis. Journal of Investment Management 5, no. 4 (Fourth Quarter 2007): 5–28.
      • Article

      Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

      By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron
      Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
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      Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games." Special Issue on Behavioral Game Theory. Economic Theory 33, no. 1 (October 2007): 29–51.
      • October 2007
      • Article

      Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
      Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market." Journal of Finance 62, no. 5 (October 2007): 2061–2096. (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2007.)
      • September 2007
      • Case

      Dice-K: The Hundred (Plus) Million Dollar Man

      By: Randolph B. Cohen
      Describes the efforts made by the Boston Red Sox to sign superstar Japanese pitcher Daisuke (Dice-K) Matsuzaka within the context of the team's attempts to keep pace with longtime rival, the New York Yankees. In late 2006, Dice-K is viewed as the prize of the free... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Sports Industry
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      Cohen, Randolph B., Michael Barry, and F. Mark D'Annolfo. "Dice-K: The Hundred (Plus) Million Dollar Man." Harvard Business School Case 208-043, September 2007.
      • fall 2007
      • Article

      Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

      By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
      • Article

      Gross National Happiness As an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
      The Easterlin Paradox refers to the fact that happiness data are typically stationary in spite of considerable increases in income. This amounts to a rejection of the hypothesis that current income is the only argument in the utility function. We find that the... View Details
      Keywords: Wealth and Poverty; Happiness; Employment; Income; Mathematical Methods; Welfare
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Gross National Happiness As an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?" Journal of Development Economics 86, no. 1 (April 2008).
      • fall 2007
      • Article

      The Design of Patent Pools: The Determinants of Licensing Rules

      By: Josh Lerner, Marcin Strojwas and Jean Tirole
      Patent pools are an important but little-studied economic institution. In this paper, we first make a set of predictions about the licensing terms associated with patent pools. The theoretical framework predicts that (a) pools consisting of complementary patents are... View Details
      Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Patents; Rights
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      Lerner, Josh, Marcin Strojwas, and Jean Tirole. "The Design of Patent Pools: The Determinants of Licensing Rules." RAND Journal of Economics 38, no. 3 (fall 2007): 610–625. (Earlier version distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 9680.)
      • September – October 2007
      • Article

      Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Nathan Sosner
      n April 2000, 30 stocks were replaced in the Nikkei 225 Index. The unusually broad index redefinition allowed for a study of the effects of index-linked trading on the excess comovement of stock returns. A large increase occurred in the correlation of trading volume of... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Nathan Sosner. "Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 63, no. 5 (September–October 2007): 69–81.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are

      By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman
      This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias
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      Tenbrunsel, Ann E., Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni, and Max H. Bazerman. "The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-012, August 2007. (revised January 2009, previously titled "Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are: A Temporal Explanation.")
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns

      By: Glenn Ellison, Edward Glaeser and William R. Kerr
      Many industries are geographically concentrated. Many mechanisms that could account for such agglomeration have been proposed. We note that these theories make different predictions about which pairs of industries should be coagglomerated. We discuss the measurement of... View Details
      Keywords: Geographic Location; Labor; Industry Clusters; Transportation; Manufacturing Industry; United States
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      Ellison, Glenn, Edward Glaeser, and William R. Kerr. "What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-064, July 2007. (NBER WP 13068; published in American Economic Review.)
      • June 2007 (Revised August 2007)
      • Case

      Dressen (Abridged) (A)

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      John Lynch, CEO of the Dressen Division of Westinghouse, was elated by the proposed leveraged buyout by the private equity firm, Warburg Pincus Ventures. The buyout would rid the division of a 'bad' parent and place the division's destiny in its own hands. A recently... View Details
      Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Private Equity; Bids and Bidding; Valuation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Dressen (Abridged) (A)." Harvard Business School Case 207-125, June 2007. (Revised August 2007.)
      • June 2007
      • Article

      Does Employment Protection Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States

      By: David H Autor, William R. Kerr and Adriana D. Kugler
      Theory predicts that mandated employment protections may reduce productivity by distorting production choices. Firms facing (non-Coasean) worker dismissal costs will curtail hiring below efficient levels and retain unproductive workers, both of which should affect... View Details
      Keywords: Theory; Production; Selection and Staffing; Cost; Employment; Capital; Performance Productivity; United States
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      Autor, David H., William R. Kerr, and Adriana D. Kugler. "Does Employment Protection Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States." Economic Journal 117, no. 521 (June 2007): 189–217.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Decision Choices and Conditions; Attitudes; Conflict and Resolution; Emotions; Film Entertainment; Cognition and Thinking; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-099, June 2007. (Revised July 2007, December 2007, April 2008, September 2008, January 2009.)
      • May 2007 (Revised August 2007)
      • Case

      Prediction Markets at Google

      By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee
      In its eight quarters of operation, Google's internally developed prediction market has delivered accurate and decisive predictions about future events of interest to the company. Google must now determine how to increase participation in the market, and how to best... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Market Participation; Information Technology
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      Coles, Peter A., Karim R. Lakhani, and Andrew P. McAfee. "Prediction Markets at Google." Harvard Business School Case 607-088, May 2007. (Revised August 2007.)
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