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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,935)
- News (467)
- Research (2,185)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,409)
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- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
- Article
Beyond Dislike: Blatant Dehumanization Predicts Teacher Discrimination
By: Emile Bruneau, Hanna Szekeres, Nour Kteily, Linda Tropp and Anna Kende
Bruneau, Emile, Hanna Szekeres, Nour Kteily, Linda Tropp, and Anna Kende. "Beyond Dislike: Blatant Dehumanization Predicts Teacher Discrimination." Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 23, no. 4 (June 2020): 560–577.
- July 2019
- Article
'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity
By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis
When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details
Gray, Kurt, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett, and Kevin Lewis. "'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity." American Psychologist 74, no. 5 (July 2019): 539–554.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing
Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-034, December 2023. (Revised March 2025.)
- Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction
By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth
A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition
Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 1, no. 2 (June 2010): 117–136.
- March 2018
- Article
Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior
By: Jackson G. Lu, Julia J. Lee, F. Gino and Adam D. Galinsky
Air pollution is a serious problem that influences billions of people globally. Although the health and environmental costs of air pollution are well known, the present research investigates its ethical costs. We propose that air pollution can increase criminal and... View Details
Lu, Jackson G., Julia J. Lee, F. Gino, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior." Psychological Science 29, no. 3 (March 2018): 340–355.
- September 2021
- Article
Income More Reliably Predicts Frequent Than Intense Happiness
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Ruo Mo, Adam Eric Greenberg, Bertus Jeronimus and Ashley V. Whillans
There is widespread consensus that income and subjective well-being are linked, but when and why they are connected is subject to ongoing debate. We draw on prior research that distinguishes between the frequency and intensity of happiness to suggest that higher income... View Details
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Ruo Mo, Adam Eric Greenberg, Bertus Jeronimus, and Ashley V. Whillans. "Income More Reliably Predicts Frequent Than Intense Happiness." Social Psychological & Personality Science 12, no. 7 (September 2021): 1294–1306.
- June 2012
- Article
Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details
Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2, no. 1 (June 2012): 57–87.
- Article
Attention Prediction on Social Media Brand Pages
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jitendra Ajmera
Lakkaraju, Himabindu, and Jitendra Ajmera. "Attention Prediction on Social Media Brand Pages." Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management 20th (2011).
- November 15, 2016
- Article
Prediction Markets Didn't Call Trump's Win, Either
Kominers, Scott Duke. "Prediction Markets Didn't Call Trump's Win, Either." Bloomberg View (November 15, 2016).
- May 2024
- Article
Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others
By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles
Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details
Ruttan, Rachel, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli, and Katherine DeCelles. "Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 126, no. 5 (May 2024): 818–840.
- May 2022
- Supplement
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (B)
By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu
Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. In 2021, it had been three years since Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) and Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) started working on Muneccim, the company’s predictive AI tool.... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Commercialization; Technology Adoption; Industrial Products Industry; Turkey; Middle East
Mojir, Navid, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 522-045, May 2022.
- August 2006
- Article
Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
- 07 Oct 2024
- Research & Ideas
Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President
Pundits love a political horse race, parsing the latest polls to predict who might win an election. And in the final runup to the US presidential contest, these forecasts can influence markets and shape public opinion and policies. But as... View Details
Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald
- Article
Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses
By: Kaivalya Rawal and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision-making, there has been a lot of interest in developing algorithms which can provide recourses to affected individuals. While developing such tools is important, it is even more critical to... View Details
Rawal, Kaivalya, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 33 (2020).
- December 2005
- Article
Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior
By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker
Allenby, Greg, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter, and Joan Walker. "Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior." Marketing Letters 16, nos. 3/4 (December 2005).
- 30 May 2023
- Research & Ideas
Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?
data.” The researchers also found that telling GPT that it had purchased a product before, such as yogurt, and how much of the product the “customer” already had at home, affected purchasing decisions in predictable ways: the more yogurt... View Details
Keywords: by Kristen Senz
- May 2022
- Article
Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks
By: Dan Amiram, Evgeny Lyandres and Daniel Rabetti
This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers. The... View Details
Keywords: Blockchain; Bitcoin; Accounting; AI and Machine Learning; National Security; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
Amiram, Dan, Evgeny Lyandres, and Daniel Rabetti. "Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks." Journal of Accounting Research 60, no. 2 (May 2022): 427–466.
- 2020
- Conference Presentation
Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments
By: L. Tarhan, J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez and T. Konkle