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(2,865)
- News (471)
- Research (2,200)
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- Faculty Publications (1,411)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,865)
- News (471)
- Research (2,200)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,411)
- July 2006
- Article
Climate Change As a Predictable Surprise
By: M. H. Bazerman
Keywords: Change
Bazerman, M. H. "Climate Change As a Predictable Surprise." Climatic Change (July 2006): 1–15.
- 02 Oct 2009
- News
Making Time Off Required and Predictable
- 2019
- Working Paper
The Wisdom of Crowds in Operations: Forecasting Using Prediction Markets
By: Achal Bassamboo, Ruomeng Cui and Antonio Moreno
Prediction is an important activity in various business processes, but it becomes difficult when historical information is not available, such as forecasting demand of a new product. One approach that can be applied in such situations is to crowdsource opinions from... View Details
Keywords: Wisdom Of Crowds; Demand Forecasting; Price Forecasting; Forecasting and Prediction; Social and Collaborative Networks; Size; Performance
Bassamboo, Achal, Ruomeng Cui, and Antonio Moreno. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Operations: Forecasting Using Prediction Markets." Working Paper, 2019.
- October 17, 2022
- Article
Relational Diversity in Social Portfolios Predicts Well-Being
By: Hanne K. Collins, Serena F. Hagerty, Jordi Quoidbach, Michael I. Norton and Alison Wood Brooks
We document a link between the relational diversity of one’s social portfolio—the richness and evenness of relationship types across one’s social interactions—and well-being. Across four distinct samples, respondents from the United States who completed a preregistered... View Details
Keywords: Social Interaction; Social Engagement; Well-being; Happiness; Social and Collaborative Networks; Family and Family Relationships
Collins, Hanne K., Serena F. Hagerty, Jordi Quoidbach, Michael I. Norton, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Relational Diversity in Social Portfolios Predicts Well-Being." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 43 (October 17, 2022).
- Article
Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns." Journal of Investment Management 7, no. 1 (First Quarter 2009): 36–52.
- 01 Apr 2012
- News
Herzlinger Predicts ACOs, PCMHs Will Fail
- April 2021 (Revised August 2021)
- Case
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)
By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu
Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) and Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) seem to have bet their careers on developing Muneccim, a new predictive technology that is designed to... View Details
Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; AI; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey
Mojir, Navid, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)." Harvard Business School Case 521-053, April 2021. (Revised August 2021.)
- April 2012
- Article
The Predictive Value of Accruals and Consequences for Market Anomalies
By: Francois Brochet, Seunghan Nam and Joshua Ronen
We revisit the role of the cash and accrual components of accounting earnings in predicting future cash flows using out-of-sample predictions and market value of equity as a proxy for all future cash flows. We find that, on average, accruals improve upon current cash... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Value; Equity; Markets; Cash Flow; Information Management; Accrual Accounting; Earnings Management; Corporate Governance; Stocks
Brochet, Francois, Seunghan Nam, and Joshua Ronen. "The Predictive Value of Accruals and Consequences for Market Anomalies." Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 27, no. 2 (April 2012).
- Article
Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey and Adam D. Galinsky
Prior studies linking grit—defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals—to performance are beset by contradictory evidence. As a result, commentators have increasingly declared that grit has limited effects. We propose that this inconsistent evidence has... View Details
Keywords: Grit; Perseverance; Passion; Motivation; Personal Characteristics; Emotions; Performance; Motivation and Incentives
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 40 (October 2, 2018): 9980–9985.
- 2023
- Article
Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models
By: Pavan Ravishankar, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
With an increased focus on incorporating fairness in machine learning models, it becomes imperative not only to assess and mitigate bias at each stage of the machine learning pipeline but also to understand the downstream impacts of bias across stages. Here we consider... View Details
Ravishankar, Pavan, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 37, no. 8 (2023): 9562–9569. (Presented at the 37th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2/7/23-2/14/23) in Washington, DC.)
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- 10 Dec 2015
- News
Can Google Street View Images Predict Household Income?
- January 2010
- Journal Article
A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description
By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere
Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition
Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West, and Christian Lebiere. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
- 9 Dec 2016
- Conference Presentation
Discovering Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana and Eric Horvitz
Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana, and Eric Horvitz. "Discovering Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models." Paper presented at the 30th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), Workshop on Reliable Machine Learning in the Wild, Barcelona, Spain, December 9, 2016.
- Article
Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability
By: Mark Seasholes and Terrence Hendershott
This paper examines the trading behavior of two groups of liquidity providers (specialists and competing market makers) using a six-year panel of NYSE data. Trades of each group are negatively correlated with contemporaneous price changes. To test for return... View Details
Keywords: Liquidity; Market Makers; Market Efficiency; Inventory; Liquidity Provision; Market Design; Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Investment Return
Seasholes, Mark, and Terrence Hendershott. "Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability." Journal of Banking & Finance 45 (August 2014): 140–151.
- 10 Apr 2015
- HBS Seminar
Jim Manzi (Chairman, Applied Predictive Technologies)
- Article
Extension Request Avoidance Predicts Greater Time Stress Among Women
By: Ashley V. Whillans, Jaewon Yoon, Aurora Turek and Grant E. Donnelly
In nine studies using archival data, surveys, and experiments, we identify a factor that predicts gender differences in time stress and burnout. Across academic and professional settings, women are less likely to ask for more time when working under adjustable... View Details
Whillans, Ashley V., Jaewon Yoon, Aurora Turek, and Grant E. Donnelly. "Extension Request Avoidance Predicts Greater Time Stress Among Women." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 45 (November 9, 2021).
- 2022
- Working Paper
Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions
By: George Serafeim and Gladys Vélez Caicedo
For most organizations, the vast amount of carbon emissions occur in their supply chain and in the post-sale processing, usage, and end of life treatment of a product, collectively labelled scope 3 emissions. In this paper, we train machine learning algorithms on 15... View Details
Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Climate Change; Environment; Carbon Accounting; Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence; Digital; Data Science; Environmental Sustainability; Environmental Management; Environmental Accounting
Serafeim, George, and Gladys Vélez Caicedo. "Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-080, June 2022.
- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.