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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (1,598)
      • Faculty Publications  (369)

      Treatment Effect EstimationRemove Treatment Effect Estimation →

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Residential Battery Storage - Reshaping the Way We Do Electricity

      By: Christian Kaps and Serguei Netessine
      In this paper, we aim to understand when private households invest in behind-the-meter battery storage next to rooftop solar and how those batteries impact households, the electricity market, and emissions. We answer three main research questions: 1) When do customers... View Details
      Keywords: Solar Power; Energy Storage; Technology And Innovation Management; Energy; Energy Policy; Renewable Energy; Technological Innovation; Innovation and Management; Energy Industry
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      Kaps, Christian, and Serguei Netessine. "Residential Battery Storage - Reshaping the Way We Do Electricity." Working Paper, February 2025.
      • July 2023
      • Article

      Before or After? The Effects of Payment Decision Timing in Pay-What-You-Want Contexts

      By: Raghabendra P. KC, Vincent Mak and Elie Ofek
      We study how payment decision timing—before versus after product delivery—influences consumer payment under pay-what-you-want pricing. We focus on situations where there is minimal change in consumer uncertainty regarding the product before versus after receiving it.... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Behavior; Valuation; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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      KC, Raghabendra P., Vincent Mak, and Elie Ofek. "Before or After? The Effects of Payment Decision Timing in Pay-What-You-Want Contexts." Journal of Marketing 87, no. 4 (July 2023): 618–635.
      • July 2023
      • Article

      Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments

      By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
      In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted... View Details
      Keywords: Switchback Experiments; Design; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., David Simchi-Levi, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments." Management Science 69, no. 7 (July 2023): 3759–3777.
      • July 2023
      • Article

      So, Who Likes You? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

      By: Ravi Bapna, Edward McFowland III, Probal Mojumder, Jui Ramaprasad and Akhmed Umyarov
      With one-third of marriages in the United States beginning online, online dating platforms have become important curators of the modern social fabric. Prior work on online dating has elicited two critical frictions in the heterosexual dating market. Women, governed by... View Details
      Keywords: Online Dating; Internet and the Web; Analytics and Data Science; Gender; Emotions; Social and Collaborative Networks
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      Bapna, Ravi, Edward McFowland III, Probal Mojumder, Jui Ramaprasad, and Akhmed Umyarov. "So, Who Likes You? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment." Management Science 69, no. 7 (July 2023): 3939–3957.
      • June 2023
      • Article

      Do Job Seekers Value Diversity Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment and Human Capital Disclosures

      By: Jung Ho Choi, Joseph Pacelli, Kristina M. Rennekamp and Sorabh Tomar
      We examine how information about the diversity of a potential employer's workforce affects individuals’ job-seeking behavior. We embed a field experiment in job recommendation emails from a leading career advice agency in the U.S. The experimental treatment involves... View Details
      Keywords: Diversity; Job Search; Employees; Corporate Disclosure
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      Choi, Jung Ho, Joseph Pacelli, Kristina M. Rennekamp, and Sorabh Tomar. "Do Job Seekers Value Diversity Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment and Human Capital Disclosures." Journal of Accounting Research 61, no. 3 (June 2023): 695–735.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators

      By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in... View Details
      Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Jakubowski, Benjamin, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators." Journal of Machine Learning Research 24, no. 133 (2023): 1–57.
      • May 2023 (Revised June 2023)
      • Case

      Novartis (A): Reimagining Medicine

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Claudio Feser, Karolin Frankenberger and David Redaschi
      This case unfolds around the first-ever approved personalized cancer treatment, how Novartis wrapped it into a new business model design, and how Novartis scaled it. Novartis — one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world — is, among other ventures,... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Business Model; Leadership; Pharmaceutical Industry; Switzerland
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Claudio Feser, Karolin Frankenberger, and David Redaschi. "Novartis (A): Reimagining Medicine." Harvard Business School Case 723-443, May 2023. (Revised June 2023.)
      • May 2023 (Revised June 2023)
      • Supplement

      Novartis (B): Reimagining Medicine

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Claudio Feser, Karolin Frankenberger and David Redaschi
      This case unfolds around the first-ever approved personalized cancer treatment, how Novartis wrapped it into a new business model design, and how Novartis scaled it. Novartis — one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world — is, among other ventures,... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Business Model; Production; Business Strategy; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Claudio Feser, Karolin Frankenberger, and David Redaschi. "Novartis (B): Reimagining Medicine." Harvard Business School Supplement 723-444, May 2023. (Revised June 2023.)
      • May 2023 (Revised June 2023)
      • Supplement

      Novartis (C): Reimagining Medicine

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Claudio Feser, Karolin Frankenberger and David Redaschi
      This case unfolds around the first-ever approved personalized cancer treatment, how Novartis wrapped it into a new business model design, and how Novartis scaled it. Novartis — one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world — is, among other ventures,... View Details
      Keywords: Health Testing and Trials; Health Care and Treatment; Business Model; Problems and Challenges; Pharmaceutical Industry; Switzerland
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Claudio Feser, Karolin Frankenberger, and David Redaschi. "Novartis (C): Reimagining Medicine." Harvard Business School Supplement 723-445, May 2023. (Revised June 2023.)
      • May 2023
      • Article

      How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

      By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the... View Details
      Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.
      • May–June 2023
      • Article

      Need for Speed: The Impact of In-Process Delays on Customer Behavior in Online Retail

      By: Santiago Gallino, Nil Karacaoglu and Antonio Moreno
      The impact of delays has been widely studied in various offline services. The focus of this study is online services, and we explore the impact of in-process delays—measured by website speed—on customer behavior. We leverage novel retail and website speed data to... View Details
      Keywords: Online Retail; Quasi-experiments; Abandonment; Synthetic Control; E-commerce; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Policy; Retail Industry
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      Gallino, Santiago, Nil Karacaoglu, and Antonio Moreno. "Need for Speed: The Impact of In-Process Delays on Customer Behavior in Online Retail." Operations Research 71, no. 3 (May–June 2023): 876–894.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.

      By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
      Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its... View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Homophily; Social Networks; Peer Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Mathematical Methods
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      McFowland III, Edward, and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. "Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 707–718.
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Pricing for Heterogeneous Products: Analytics for Ticket Reselling

      By: Michael Alley, Max Biggs, Rim Hariss, Charles Herrmann, Michael Lingzhi Li and Georgia Perakis
      Problem definition: We present a data-driven study of the secondary ticket market. In particular, we are primarily concerned with accurately estimating price sensitivity for listed tickets. In this setting, there are many issues including endogeneity, heterogeneity in... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Demand and Consumers; AI and Machine Learning; Investment Return; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Sports Industry
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      Alley, Michael, Max Biggs, Rim Hariss, Charles Herrmann, Michael Lingzhi Li, and Georgia Perakis. "Pricing for Heterogeneous Products: Analytics for Ticket Reselling." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 409–426.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities

      By: David S. Scharfstein and Sergey Chernenko
      We show that the use of algorithms to predict race has significant limitations in measuring and understanding the sources of racial disparities in finance, economics, and other contexts. First, we derive theoretically the direction and magnitude of measurement bias in... View Details
      Keywords: Racial Disparity; Paycheck Protection Program; Measurement Error; AI and Machine Learning; Race; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
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      Scharfstein, David S., and Sergey Chernenko. "The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities." Working Paper, April 2023.
      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity

      By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
      We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details
      Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity
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      Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity." Journal of the European Economic Association 21, no. 2 (April 2023): 637–689.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Comparison of COVID-19 Hospitalization Costs across Care Pathways: A Patient-level Time-driven Activity-based Costing Analysis in a Brazilian Hospital

      By: Ricardo Bertoglio Cardoso, Miriam Allein Zago Marcolino, Milena Soriano Marcolino, Camila Felix Fortis, Leila Beltrami Moreira, Ana Paula Coutinho, Nadine Oliveira Clausell, Junaid Nabi, Robert S. Kaplan, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Etges and Carisi Anne Polanczyk
      The COVID-19 pandemic raised awareness of the need to better understand where and how patient-level costs are incurred in health care organizations. This study used time-driven activity-based costing to estimate COVID-19 patient-level hospital costs in a Brazilian... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Cost; Health Industry; Brazil
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      Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio, Miriam Allein Zago Marcolino, Milena Soriano Marcolino, Camila Felix Fortis, Leila Beltrami Moreira, Ana Paula Coutinho, Nadine Oliveira Clausell, Junaid Nabi, Robert S. Kaplan, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Etges, and Carisi Anne Polanczyk. "Comparison of COVID-19 Hospitalization Costs across Care Pathways: A Patient-level Time-driven Activity-based Costing Analysis in a Brazilian Hospital." BMC Health Services Research 23, no. 198 (2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Kosuke Imai, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data." Working Paper, February 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Crowding in Private Quality: The Equilibrium Effects of Public Spending in Education

      By: Tahir Andrabi, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja and Naureen Karachiwalla
      We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public-school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village-level, allowing... View Details
      Keywords: Product Differentiation; Public Sector; Private Sector; Spending; Education; Competition
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      Andrabi, Tahir, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja, and Naureen Karachiwalla. "Crowding in Private Quality: The Equilibrium Effects of Public Spending in Education." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30929, February 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules

      By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a... View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Precision Medicine; Uplift Modeling; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 242–256.
      • November 15, 2022
      • Article

      Using Simulations to Upskill Employees

      By: Frank V. Cespedes, Trond Aas, Alex Hunt and Huw Newton-Hill
      Reskilling employees tops the agenda in many organizations, according to a LinkedIn report. Korn Ferry estimates an 85-million person talent shortage by 2030, and McKinsey likens the challenge to the shift from agricultural to manufacturing work that occurred in the... View Details
      Keywords: Employee Engagement; Managing People; Talent Development; Training; Human Capital; Experience and Expertise; Talent and Talent Management; Retention; Personal Development and Career
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      Cespedes, Frank V., Trond Aas, Alex Hunt, and Huw Newton-Hill. "Using Simulations to Upskill Employees." Harvard Business Review (website) (November 15, 2022).
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