Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(775)
- Faculty Publications (157)
- July 2014
- Article
Winners in the Spotlight: Media Coverage of Fund Holdings as a Driver of Flows
By: David H. Solomon, Eugene F. Soltes and Denis Sosyura
We show that media coverage of mutual fund holdings affects how investors allocate money across funds. Controlling for fund performance, fund holdings with high past returns attract extra flows only if these stocks were recently featured in major newspapers. In... View Details
- May 2014
- Article
Digital Dark Matter and the Economic Contribution of Apache
By: Shane Greenstein and Frank Nagle
Researchers have long hypothesized that research outputs from government, university, and private company R&D contribute to economic growth, but these contributions may be difficult to measure when they take a non-pecuniary form. The growth of networking devices and... View Details
Keywords: Open Source; Apache; Economic Measurement; Digital Economics; Measurement and Metrics; Open Source Distribution; Internet and the Web; Information Technology; Applications and Software; Economic Growth; Research and Development; Web Services Industry; Information Technology Industry; United States
- 2014
- Article
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the... View Details
- April 2014
- Article
Golden Parachutes and the Wealth of Shareholders
By: Lucian A. Bebchuk, Alma Cohen and Charles C.Y. Wang
Golden parachutes (GPs) have attracted substantial attention from investors and public officials for more than two decades. We find that GPs are associated with higher expected acquisition premiums and that this association is at least partly due to the effect of GPs... View Details
- December 2013
- Article
Legislating Stock Prices
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important... View Details
- November 2013
- Supplement
Arch Wireless, Inc. (B): Food for Vultures
By: Stuart C. Gilson
In 2002, a hedge fund investor acquires the distressed bank debt of a bankrupt wireless paging company and converts his holding into common stock of the reorganized entity. Determining his likely return from this investment is challenging, given that the entire... View Details
- 2013
- Working Paper
Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital... View Details
- May 2013
- Article
The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts
Prior research on equity analysts focuses almost exclusively on those employed by sell-side investment banks and brokerage houses. Yet investment firms undertake their own buy-side research and their analysts face different stock selection and recommendation incentives... View Details
- 2013
- Article
Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance
By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with... View Details
- March 2013
- Article
Misvaluing Innovation
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details
- June 2012
- Article
The Economic Value of Celebrity Endorsements
By: Anita Elberse and Jeroen Verleun
What is the payoff to enlisting celebrity endorsers? Although effects on stock returns are relatively well documented, little is known about any impact on sales—arguably a metric of more direct importance to advertising practitioners. In this study of athlete... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Value; Advertising; Sales; Brands and Branding; Decisions; Economics; Marketing Strategy; Investment Return
- November 2012
- Case
Ahold versus Tesco—Analyzing Performance
By: Suraj Srinivasan and Penelope Rossano
The case relates to understanding and comparing the performance of two leading retail companies—Ahold and Tesco. The case introduces the tools of Dupont and Modified Dupont Decomposition. While performance as measured by return on equity has been similar for the two... View Details
- October 2012
- Article
The Effect of Reference Point Prices on Mergers and Acquisitions
By: Malcolm Baker, Xin Pan and Jeffrey Wurgler
Prior stock price peaks of targets affect several aspects of merger and acquisition activity. Offer prices are biased toward recent peak prices although they are economically unremarkable. An offer's probability of acceptance jumps discontinuously when it exceeds a... View Details
- 2012
- Article
Mutual Fund Trading Pressure: Firm-Level Stock Price Impact and Timing of SEOs
By: Mozaffar N. Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
In tests of the equity market timing theory of external finance, the prior literature has used overvaluation identifiers such as high market-to-book and high prior returns that are likely correlated with other determinants of SEOs. We use price pressure resulting from... View Details
- June 2012
- Article
Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details
- May 2012
- Article
Global, Local, and Contagious Investor Sentiment
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeffrey Wurgler and Yu Yuan
We construct investor sentiment indices for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indices. In a validation test, we find that relative sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies. Global sentiment is a... View Details
- April 2012
- Article
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details
- Article
The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts
We examine the selection and performance of stocks recommended by analysts at a large investment firm relative to those of sell-side analysts during the period mid-1997 and 2004. The buy-side firm's analysts issued less optimistic recommendations for stocks with larger... View Details
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
- December 2011
- Article
Stock Price Fragility
By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. We define an asset to be fragile if it is susceptible to non-fundamental trading shocks. An asset can be fragile because of concentrated ownership or because its... View Details