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      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

      By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
      Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
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      Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Priors, Experiments, Learning and Persuasion in (Bayesian) Entrepreneurial Finance

      By: Ramana Nanda
      At the heart of entrepreneurial finance lies a persuasion challenge: regardless of the strength of an entrepreneur’s belief in the potential of their idea, they typically need to convince investors to provide the financial capital required for its... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurial Finance; Business Startups; Communication Intention and Meaning; Prejudice and Bias
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      Nanda, Ramana. "Priors, Experiments, Learning and Persuasion in (Bayesian) Entrepreneurial Finance." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-020, October 2024.
      • October 2024
      • Article

      Racial Disparities in the Paycheck Protection Program

      By: Sergey Chernenko and David Scharfstein
      Using a large sample of Florida restaurants, we document significant racial disparities in borrowing through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and investigate the causes of these disparities. Black-owned restaurants are 25% less likely to receive PPP loans.... View Details
      Keywords: Discrimination; Paycheck Protection Program; Economic Injury Disaster Loans; Bank Lending; Nonbank Lending; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Prejudice and Bias; Race
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      Chernenko, Sergey, and David Scharfstein. "Racial Disparities in the Paycheck Protection Program." Art. 103911. Journal of Financial Economics 160 (October 2024).
      • Fall 2024
      • Article

      Redemption Mechanisms in Poison Pills: Evidence on Pill Design and Law Firm Effects

      By: Olivier Baum and Guhan Subramanian
      We present the first evidence on the incidence of “trip wire” versus “last look” poison pills. Using a hand-collected data set of 130 poison pills implemented and/or amended between January 1, 2020 and March 31, 2023, we find that pills are almost evenly divided... View Details
      Keywords: Acquisition; Negotiation Tactics; Contracts
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      Baum, Olivier, and Guhan Subramanian. "Redemption Mechanisms in Poison Pills: Evidence on Pill Design and Law Firm Effects." Business Lawyer 79, no. 4 (Fall 2024).
      • September–October 2024
      • Article

      The Art of Leading Teammates

      By: Tom Brady and Nitin Nohria
      When our society talks about leaders, we focus on formal roles, such as the CEO. This view undervalues the role of informal leaders—team members who influence outcomes by the tone they set, how they conduct themselves, and how they interact with their peers. Their job... View Details
      Keywords: Groups and Teams; Power and Influence; Leadership; Status and Position
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      Brady, Tom, and Nitin Nohria. "The Art of Leading Teammates." Harvard Business Review 102, no. 5 (September–October 2024): 62–69.
      • Fall 2024
      • Article

      The Three Traps That Stymie Reinvention: Organizational Identity, Architecture, and Collaboration Can Be Either Assets or Liabilities to Pursuing Growth in New Sectors

      By: Ryan Raffaelli
      In more than a decade of researching innovation, I have observed how organizations respond to new opportunities, technological changes, or unexpected market shifts that threaten to upend their current business model. This process, which I call reinvention, may occur... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation And Strategy; Change Leadership; Collaboration; Architecture; Transformation; Disruption; Leading Change; Innovation Strategy; Identity; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure
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      Raffaelli, Ryan. "The Three Traps That Stymie Reinvention: Organizational Identity, Architecture, and Collaboration Can Be Either Assets or Liabilities to Pursuing Growth in New Sectors." MIT Sloan Management Review 66, no. 1 (Fall 2024): 46–52. (Cover story.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      When Batteries Meet Hydrogen: Dual-Storage Investments for Load-Shifting Purposes

      By: Christian Kaps and Simone Marinesi
      Power systems account for nearly 40% of global emissions. As the world tries to reduce emissions by increasing renewable penetration, storage technologies are playing an increasingly important role in matching variable renewable supply with demand. Batteries have... View Details
      Keywords: Environmental Sustainability; Renewable Energy; Transition; Utilities Industry; Battery Industry
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      Kaps, Christian, and Simone Marinesi. "When Batteries Meet Hydrogen: Dual-Storage Investments for Load-Shifting Purposes." Working Paper, October 2024.
      • September 2024
      • Case

      Faena: Magic in Mid-Miami Beach

      By: Robin Greenwood, Denise Han, Dave Habeeb and Ruth Page
      The link to this multimedia case should be provided to students in advance as preparation for classroom case discussion.

      This multimedia case follows real estate developer Alan Faena as he expanded his luxury development business from Argentina to the... View Details
      Keywords: Development; Real Estate; Hotels; Luxury; Urban Development; Sustainable Cities; Design; Markets; Transformation; Cost vs Benefits; Economic Growth; Private Sector; Public Sector; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Cultural Entrepreneurship; Financial Strategy; Investment Return; Geographic Location; Urban Scope; Corporate Accountability; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Opportunities; Culture; Value Creation; Real Estate Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Florida; Miami; Argentina; Buenos Aires
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      Greenwood, Robin, Denise Han, Dave Habeeb, and Ruth Page. "Faena: Magic in Mid-Miami Beach." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Case 225-701, September 2024.
      • September 2024
      • Case

      Leadership for Stretch Goals: Inspiring Employees to Achieve the Impossible at Charter Next Generation

      By: Ethan Rouen and Elisabeth Powell
      In 2023, Kathy Bolhous, CEO of Charter Next Generation (CNG), set out to achieve an ambitious "Moonshot"—increasing profits by $100 million within three years, purely through internal innovations and efficiency gains, without layoffs or new revenue streams. After years... View Details
      Keywords: Profit; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Leadership; Growth Management; Mission and Purpose; Employee Ownership; Motivation and Incentives
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      Rouen, Ethan, and Elisabeth Powell. "Leadership for Stretch Goals: Inspiring Employees to Achieve the Impossible at Charter Next Generation." Harvard Business School Case 125-025, September 2024.
      • September 2024
      • Exercise

      Finding Your 'Jagged Frontier': A Generative AI Exercise

      By: Mitchell Weiss
      In 2023 a set of scholars set out to study the effect of artificial intelligence (AI) on the quality and productivity of knowledge workers—in this specific instance, management consultants. They wanted to know across a range of tasks in a workflow, which, if any, would... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Performance Productivity; Performance Evaluation; Consulting Industry
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      Weiss, Mitchell. "Finding Your 'Jagged Frontier': A Generative AI Exercise." Harvard Business School Exercise 825-070, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Perception; Government Administration
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy." Working Paper, September 2024.
      • September 2024
      • Case

      InfraCredit and the Project Inception Facility

      By: John Macomber, Namrata Arora and Maagatha Kalavadakken
      Around the world, large infrastructure projects are frequently stymied by the high cost and high uncertainty of the project inception phase: the research and engineering and planning prior to financial close and start of construction. Could there be a new kind of... View Details
      Keywords: Infrastructure; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Cost; Cash Flow; Capital; Assets; Financial Markets; Financial Strategy; Insurance; Energy; Product Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Strategy; Credit; Financial Services Industry; Energy Industry; Banking Industry; Africa; Nigeria
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      Macomber, John, Namrata Arora, and Maagatha Kalavadakken. "InfraCredit and the Project Inception Facility." Harvard Business School Case 225-027, September 2024.
      • September 2024
      • Case

      Navigating Digital Transformation at Carrefour

      By: Sunil Gupta and Emilie Billaud
      In 2023, Elodie Perthuisot, Carrefour’s Executive Director for e-commerce and digital transformation, met with CEO Alexandre Bompard to discuss strategies for the company’s digital initiatives. Carrefour, a global retail giant with over 14,300 stores across 40... View Details
      Keywords: Change Management; Transformation; Talent and Talent Management; Decisions; Digital Strategy; Technology Adoption; Leading Change; Goals and Objectives; Resource Allocation; Digital Marketing; E-commerce; Operations; Logistics; Business Processes; Organizational Culture; Strategic Planning; Alliances; Partners and Partnerships; Competitive Advantage; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Europe
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      Gupta, Sunil, and Emilie Billaud. "Navigating Digital Transformation at Carrefour." Harvard Business School Case 525-024, September 2024.
      • September 2024
      • Module Note

      Governance for Non-Profit Social Enterprises

      By: Brian Trelstad, Gerald Chertavian and Alexis Lefort
      An overview of the various roles a non-profit board of directors plays, including the board’s principal responsibilities and how those evolve as organizations grow and scale. Looks closely at the overall role in setting the mission of the organization; supervising and... View Details
      Keywords: Governing and Advisory Boards; Nonprofit Organizations; Growth Management; Mission and Purpose; United States
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      Trelstad, Brian, Gerald Chertavian, and Alexis Lefort. "Governance for Non-Profit Social Enterprises." Harvard Business School Module Note 325-002, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Does Private Equity Have Any Business Being in the Health Care Business?

      By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Zirui Song
      Private Equity (“PE”) has come under increased scrutiny by the press, academics, and policymakers, as well as the public, for its investments in health care delivery. This scrutiny has been exacerbated by recent high profile hospital bankruptcies following PE... View Details
      Keywords: Private Equity; Government Administration; Acquisition; Health Industry
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      Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Zirui Song. "Does Private Equity Have Any Business Being in the Health Care Business?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-012, September 2024.
      • September 2024
      • Article

      A Potential Pitfall of Passion: Passion Is Associated with Performance Overconfidence

      By: Erica R. Bailey, Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz
      Having passion is almost universally lauded. People strive to follow their passion at work, and organizations increasingly seek out passionate employees. Supporting the benefits of passion, prior research finds a robust relationship between passion and higher levels of... View Details
      Keywords: Interests; Personal Characteristics; Performance Evaluation
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      Bailey, Erica R., Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "A Potential Pitfall of Passion: Passion Is Associated with Performance Overconfidence." Social Psychological & Personality Science 15, no. 7 (September 2024): 769–779.
      • September 2024
      • Article

      Standing on the Shoulders of Science

      By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Monika Schnitzer and Martin Watzinger
      Today’s innovations rely on scientific discoveries of the past, yet only some corporate R&D builds directly on scientific output. In this paper, we analyze U.S. patents to investigate how firms generate value by building on prior art “closer” to science. We show... View Details
      Keywords: Patent Novelty; Value Capture; Science; Patents; Valuation; Research and Development
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      Krieger, Joshua Lev, Monika Schnitzer, and Martin Watzinger. "Standing on the Shoulders of Science." Strategic Management Journal 45, no. 9 (September 2024): 1670–1695.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Operational Impact of Customer Location in On-Demand Services

      By: Natalie Epstein, Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
      The rapid growth of on-demand delivery services, particularly in the food and grocery sectors, has driven the expansion of hyperlocal fulfillment centers (FCs). This paper uses data from an on-demand grocery delivery platform in Latin America to assess how customer... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Logistics; Geographic Location; Service Delivery; Quality; Retail Industry; Latin America
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      Epstein, Natalie, Santiago Gallino, and Antonio Moreno. "The Operational Impact of Customer Location in On-Demand Services." Working Paper, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies

      By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer
      In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; Policy
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      Cantoni, Enrico, Vincent Pons, and Jérôme Schäfer. "Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32941, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      What Do Bank Trading Desks Do?

      By: Lina Lu and Jonathan Wallen
      Bank trading desks earn profits from intermediating customer trading volume. Across a broad set of asset markets, we document that the trading desks of large U.S. dealer banks behave as financial intermediaries that profit from toll-taking as in Duffie et al. (2005).... View Details
      Keywords: Banks and Banking; Profit; Financial Markets
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      Lu, Lina, and Jonathan Wallen. "What Do Bank Trading Desks Do?" Working Paper, November 2024.
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