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      • June 2010
      • Article

      A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
      We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the large supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that... View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Decision Choices and Conditions; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; Investment Return; Government and Politics
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein. "A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice." Journal of Finance 65, no. 3 (June 2010): 993–1028. (Supplementary results in Internet Appendix.)
      • April 2010
      • Case

      Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug

      By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
      Metabical is a new weight loss drug from Cambridge Sciences Pharmaceuticals intended for moderately overweight individuals. In anticipation of final FDA approval, the senior director of marketing, Barbara Printup, prepares for the product launch and must make several... View Details
      Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Marketing Strategy; Price; Consumer Behavior; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Planning; Brands and Branding; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-183, April 2010.
      • April 2010
      • Teaching Note

      Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug (Brief Case)

      By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
      Teaching Note to 4183 View Details
      Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Price; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 104-184, April 2010.
      • April 2010
      • Supplement

      Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

      By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
      Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Demand and Consumers; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return
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      Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 104-187, April 2010.
      • April 2010
      • Supplement

      Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

      By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
      Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Demand and Consumers; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return
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      Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 104-186, April 2010.
      • January 2010
      • Article

      Clusters of Entrepreneurship

      By: Edward L. Glaeser, William R. Kerr and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto
      Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both across cities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Cost; Employment; Market Entry and Exit
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      Glaeser, Edward L., William R. Kerr, and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto. "Clusters of Entrepreneurship." Journal of Urban Economics 67, no. 1 (January 2010): 150–168.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      International Capital Allocation, Sovereign Borrowing, and Growth

      By: Laura Alfaro, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vadym Volosovych
      The key in the investigation of "where" and "why" capital flows, relative to the neoclassical benchmark, is how we measure these flows. The macro literature has been using three main yardsticks: the current account balance, returns to capital, and the volume of net... View Details
      Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Performance Productivity; Capital; Economics
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      Alfaro, Laura, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Vadym Volosovych. "International Capital Allocation, Sovereign Borrowing, and Growth." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w17396.
      • December 2009
      • Article

      Catering Through Nominal Share Prices

      By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering incentives... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Theory; Valuation
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      Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering Through Nominal Share Prices." Journal of Finance 64, no. 6 (December 2009): 2559–2590. (Internet Appendix.)
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Stock Price Fragility

      By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
      We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. An asset is fragile if its owners collectively have to buy or sell. Such assets are susceptible to non-fundamental price movements. An asset can be fragile because... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Price; Market Transactions; Ownership; Risk and Uncertainty; United States
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      Greenwood, Robin, and David Thesmar. "Stock Price Fragility." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-031, October 2009.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Clusters of Entrepreneurship

      By: Edward L. Glaeser, William R. Kerr and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto
      Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both across cities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Cost; Employment; Market Entry and Exit
      Citation
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      Glaeser, Edward L., William R. Kerr, and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto. "Clusters of Entrepreneurship." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-019, September 2009.
      • June 2009
      • Article

      Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Film Entertainment; Demand and Consumers; Renting or Rental; Power and Influence; Prejudice and Bias; Online Technology; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals." Management Science 55, no. 6 (June 2009): 1047–1059.
      • March 2009
      • Article

      Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices

      By: Robin Greenwood
      Firms can manipulate their stock price by limiting the ability of their investors to sell. I examine a series of corporate events in Japan in which firms actively reduced their float—the fraction of shares available to trade—for periods of one to three months, locking... View Details
      Keywords: Equity; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices." Review of Financial Studies 22, no. 3 (March 2009): 509–539.
      • Article

      Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns." Journal of Investment Management 7, no. 1 (First Quarter 2009): 36–52.
      • December 2008
      • Article

      Style Investing and Institutional Investors

      By: Kenneth A. Froot and Melvyn Teo
      This paper explores institutional investors' trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry
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      Froot, Kenneth A., and Melvyn Teo. "Style Investing and Institutional Investors." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43, no. 4 (December 2008): 883–906. (Revised from: Equity Style Returns and Institutional Investor Flows, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 04-048, June 2004.)
      • November 2008
      • Journal Article

      Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui
      Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations; Groups and Teams; Research; Value Creation
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Yang Gui. "Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations." Journal of Financial Transformation 24 (November 2008): 123–130.
      • August 2008
      • Article

      Economic Links and Predictable Returns

      By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
      This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation​.)
      • 2008
      • Mimeo

      Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?

      By: Joseph Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong and Jeremy C. Stein
      This paper explores the question of whether hedge funds engage in frontrunning strategies that exploit the predictable trades of others. One potential opportunity for front-running arises when distressed mutual funds—those suffering large outflows of assets under... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Profit; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Opportunities; Asset Management; Sales
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      Chen, Joseph, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong, and Jeremy C. Stein. "Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?" 2008. Mimeo.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis

      By: P. Tufano, Nick Maynard and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve
      This paper reports on a small-scale survey of the potential American demand for prize-linked savings accounts, an account that awards prizes as part of the saving product's return. In October 2006, Centra Credit Union launched a prize-linked savings pilot. As part of... View Details
      Keywords: Saving; Income; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Investment Return; Banks and Banking; Clarksville
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      Tufano, P., Nick Maynard, and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve. "Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-061, February 2008.
      • January 2008
      • Background Note

      Equity Options

      By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
      The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value
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      Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Equity Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-118, January 2008.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Catering through Nominal Share Prices

      By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices.  The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Theory; Valuation
      Citation
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      Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering through Nominal Share Prices." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w13762, January 2008. (First Draft in 2007.)
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