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  • 11 Nov 2013
  • Research & Ideas

A Smarter Way to Reduce Customer Defections

like in the case of email. But sometimes it's substantial, where companies are sending high-gloss brochures." Bottom Line The new method certainly isn't perfect; Gupta says he actually saw more prediction View Details
Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman; Retail; Service
  • 19 Dec 2006
  • First Look

First Look: December 19, 2006

these forecast errors and past demand realizations to predict future demand (extrapolating). Categorizing deviations from optimal inventory policies is possible if we allow the perception about demand... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 04 Jun 2013
  • First Look

First Look: June 4

predicted by the theory. Publisher's link: http://www.people.hbs.edu/mrhodeskropf/VCRiskReturn59.pdf 2006 Harvard Business Review Health Care's Service Fanatics: How the Cleveland Clinic Leaped to the Top of the Patient-satisfaction... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 19 Jun 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, June 19, 2018

discrimination. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=53686 Channeled Attention and Stable Errors By: Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein Abstract—A common critique of models... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 08 Feb 2011
  • First Look

First Look: Feb. 8

of causes. System-level accidents occur when anomalies or errors in different parts of an interconnected system negatively reinforce one another, spiraling up out of control until they eventually drive the system outside of its... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 17 Sep 2013
  • First Look

First Look: September 17

determines the optimal number of customers to target. The resulting optimal customer ranking and target size selection leads to, on average, a 115% improvement in profit compared to current methods. Remarkably, the improvement in profit comes along with more View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 07 Aug 2000
  • Research & Ideas

Rocket Science Retailing

Retailers can significantly improve forecast accuracy simply by updating their predictions based on early sales data, tracking the accuracy of their forecasts, getting product testing right, and using a variety of forecasting approaches.... View Details
Keywords: by Marshall L. Fisher, Ananth Raman & Anna Sheen McClelland; Retail
  • 17 Apr 2007
  • First Look

First Look: April 17, 2007

system with periodic review, constant leadtimes, infinite supply, full backlogging, linear holding and penalty costs and no ordering costs. Forecasting ARIMA time series requires tracking forecast errors (interpolations) and using these... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 22 Jul 2014
  • First Look

First Look: July 22

restatements can represent an absence of errors, it can also indicate a lack of detection and disclosure of errors and irregularities. We infer the magnitude of detection and disclosure by associating the frequency of restatements with... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 25 Jan 2011
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 25

Organizational Learning from Error Authors:Lucy H. MacPhail and Amy C. Edmondson Publication:In Errors in Organizations, edited by D. Hoffman and M. Frese. Routledge, forthcoming An abstract is not available... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 30 Mar 2010
  • First Look

First Look: March 30

people believe the risk decreases (negative recency) but at the same time exhibit more cautious behavior (positive recency). The rest of the difference is consistent with two well established mechanisms: judgment error and the use of... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 18 Oct 2004
  • Research & Ideas

The Bias of Wall Street Analysts

the commissions. After deregulation of rates in 1975, commission rates predictably dropped, and the brokerages were left with a fixed cost of sell-side analyst operations and a shortfall in revenues to fund these activities. Clearly, the... View Details
Keywords: by Ann Cullen; Financial Services
  • 10 Nov 2015
  • First Look

November 10, 2015

valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of operations and predicts the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 24 Jan 2012
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

(Study 1). Product priming also increases the speed with which product-relevant individuals come to mind (Study 2). In Study 3, consumers felt subjectively closer to networks primed by specific products, and this felt closeness predicted... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 01 Dec 2011
  • What Do You Think?

Thinking Slow: An Argument for Bureaucracy?

predictable irrationality in citizens and consumers by "nudging" them by means of economic incentives to act in ways that regulators believe are in citizens' best interests. Lest we underplay the significance of this or somehow... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 28 Sep 2010
  • First Look

First Look: September 28, 2010

"lean," capacity-constrained firms. As demand varies, the industry switches between symmetric and asymmetric phases, generating predictions for firm size and costs across the business cycle. Surprisingly, increasing available... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 01 Mar 2004
  • Lessons from the Classroom

Mission to Mars: It Really Is Rocket Science

one in which your product had to operate 100 million miles from Earth and perform under a range of conditions which were hard to predict in advance), it was impossible to know up front exactly what form a faster, better, cheaper approach... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne
  • 22 Nov 2016
  • First Look

November 22, 2016

predict that the board will design incentive contracts that filter out common shocks in performance to motivate costly effort from the CEO—a process that entails the judicious selection of benchmarks for relative performance evaluation... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 13 Jun 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, June 13

sensitivity to ambiguity also predicted a greater frequency of arrests. Together, these data suggest that alterations in cost-benefit decision-making under conditions of ambiguity may promote antisocial behavior. Publisher's link:... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 29 Mar 2011
  • First Look

First Look: March 29

creates three kinds of traps that often impede deep learning. The first is attribution error or the tendency to see superior performance as rooted in one's actions rather than other factors (such as luck). The second is that success feeds... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

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