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      • Faculty Publications  (158)

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      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

      By: Emil Siriwardane
      I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics
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      Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
      • Article

      Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Reaching for yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyzes this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details
      Keywords: Fixed Income; Reaching For Yield; Financial Intermediation; Insurance Companies; Insurance; Assets; Bonds; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management; Insurance Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market." Journal of Finance 70, no. 5 (October 2015): 1863–1902.
      • September 2015
      • Article

      Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy C. Stein and Robert W. Vishny
      We examine the business model of traditional commercial banks when they compete with shadow banks. While both types of intermediaries create safe "money-like" claims, they go about this in different ways. Traditional banks create money-like claims by holding illiquid... View Details
      Keywords: Shadow Banking; Safe Money-like Claims; Commercial Banking
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      Hanson, Samuel G., Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy C. Stein, and Robert W. Vishny. "Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors." Journal of Financial Economics 117, no. 3 (September 2015): 449–469. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • November 2014 (Revised March 2016)
      • Background Note

      Mental Health and the American Workplace

      By: John A. Quelch and Carin-Isabel Knoop
      Mental illness has been described as an epidemic affecting nearly a quarter of all Americans in their lifetimes, often during their most productive working years. Managers who can design organizations that maximize mental health can minimize these risks and boost... View Details
      Keywords: Public Health; Productivity; Competitiveness; Stress Management; Depression; Absenteeism; Presenteeism; Work Culture; Business or Company Management; Work-Life Balance; Performance Productivity; Organizational Culture; Medical Specialties; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry; United States
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      Quelch, John A., and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Mental Health and the American Workplace." Harvard Business School Background Note 515-062, November 2014. (Revised March 2016.)
      • June 2014
      • Article

      Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds

      By: Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam
      We document the consequences of money market fund risk taking during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set of security-level holdings of prime money market funds, we show that funds with large exposures to risky Eurozone banks suffered significant... View Details
      Keywords: Money Market Mutual Funds; European Sovereign Debt Crisis; Runs; Contagion; Risk Taking; Investment Funds; Financial Crisis; Europe
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      Chernenko, Sergey, and Adi Sunderam. "Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 6 (June 2014): 1717–1750.
      • May 2014
      • Article

      Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment

      By: Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
      This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand,... View Details
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      Cole, Shawn A., Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104, no. 5 (May 2014): 284–290.
      • August 2013 (Revised November 2015)
      • Case

      Prudential Financial - General Motors Pension Risk Transfer: Back to the Future?

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Emily A. Chien

      In November 2012, Prudential Financial and General Motors closed on a $25.1B pension risk transfer (PRT) transaction, the largest of its kind to date by an order of magnitude both in the U.S. market and globally. In exchange for an in-kind transfer of $25.1B in... View Details

      Keywords: Risk Management; Asset Management; Insurance; Retirement; Insurance Industry; Insurance Industry
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Emily A. Chien. "Prudential Financial - General Motors Pension Risk Transfer: Back to the Future?" Harvard Business School Case 213-126, August 2013. (Revised November 2015.)
      • Article

      Sustainability in Financial Services Is Not About Being Green

      By: Robert G. Eccles and George Serafeim
      Keywords: Sustainability; Financial Services; Banks; Insurance Companies; Risk; Risk Management; Insurance; Accounting; Banks and Banking; Financial Services Industry
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      Eccles, Robert G., and George Serafeim. "Sustainability in Financial Services Is Not About Being Green." Harvard Business Review Blogs (May 15, 2013).
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment

      By: Shawn Cole, Xavier Gine and James Vickery
      Weather is a key source of income risk, particularly in emerging market economies. This paper uses a randomized controlled trial involving a sample of Indian farmers to study how an innovative rainfall insurance product affects production decisions. We find that... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Production; Weather; Insurance; Emerging Markets; Agribusiness; Insurance Industry; Insurance Industry; India
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      Cole, Shawn, Xavier Gine, and James Vickery. "How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-080, March 2013. (Revised September 2014.)
      • January 2013 (Revised April 2017)
      • Supplement

      Maxum Petroleum, Inc.

      By: W. Carl Kester
      Maxum seeks an oil-price hedging strategy that yields substantial cash during oil price spikes, is affordable under ordinary circumstances, and is easily managed. It is striving to avoid a repeat of the challenging situation encountered in 2008 when spiking oil prices... View Details
      Keywords: Hedging; Options; Commodities; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Risk Management; Futures and Commodity Futures; Financial Strategy; Volatility
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      Kester, W. Carl. "Maxum Petroleum, Inc." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 213-714, January 2013. (Revised April 2017.)
      • January 2013
      • Article

      Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India

      By: Shawn A. Cole, Xavier Gine, Jeremy Tobacman, Petia Topalova, Robert M. Townsend and James Vickery
      Why do many households remain exposed to large exogenous sources of non-systematic income risk? We use a series of randomized field experiments in rural India to test the importance of price and non-price factors in the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Household; India
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      Cole, Shawn A., Xavier Gine, Jeremy Tobacman, Petia Topalova, Robert M. Townsend, and James Vickery. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 5, no. 1 (January 2013): 104–135.
      • September 2012
      • Case

      BASIX (Abridged)

      By: Shawn Cole and Peter Tufano
      BASIX, an Indian microfinance corporation, must decide whether to continue to sell weather insurance to its clients. A brand-new financial product, weather insurance pays if measured rainfall during the growing season falls below a pre-specified limit. Mr. Sattaiah,... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Microfinance; Household; Risk Management; Insurance; Banking Industry; India
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      Cole, Shawn, and Peter Tufano. "BASIX (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 213-035, September 2012.
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Reaching-for-yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyses this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details
      Keywords: Fixed Income; Reaching For Yield; Financial Intermediation; Insurance Companies; Insurance; Bonds; Assets; Risk Management; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Insurance Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-103, May 2012. (Revised December 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18909, March 2013)
      • Spring 2012
      • Article

      The Need for Sector-Specific Materiality and Sustainability Reporting Standards

      By: Robert G. Eccles, Michael P. Krzus, Jean Rogers and George Serafeim
      Even though the supply of sustainability information has increased considerably in the last decade, companies are still failing to disclose material information in a comparable format. We believe this has two downsides. On the one hand, companies are not adequately... View Details
      Keywords: Sustainability; Reporting; Standard Setting; Regulation; Environmental Sustainability; Accounting; Standards; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Corporate Disclosure; Competitive Advantage; Capital Markets; Accounting Industry; United States
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      Eccles, Robert G., Michael P. Krzus, Jean Rogers, and George Serafeim. "The Need for Sector-Specific Materiality and Sustainability Reporting Standards." Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 24, no. 2 (Spring 2012): 65–71.
      • Article

      Marketing Complex Financial Products in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Rainfall Insurance in India

      By: Sarthak Gaurav, Shawn A. Cole and Jeremy Tobacman
      Recent financial liberalization in emerging economies has led to the rapid introduction of new financial products. Lack of experience with financial products, low levels of education, and low financial literacy may slow adoption of these products. This article reports... View Details
      Keywords: Literacy; Insurance; Marketing; Decisions; Demand and Consumers; Financial Instruments; Emerging Markets; Education; Personal Finance; Agribusiness; Developing Countries and Economies; Innovation and Invention; Gujarat
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      Gaurav, Sarthak, Shawn A. Cole, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Marketing Complex Financial Products in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Rainfall Insurance in India." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 48, no. SPL (November 2011): S150–S162.
      • September 2011 (Revised January 2012)
      • Case

      Telemonitoring at Visiting Nurse Health System

      By: F. Warren McFarlan, Mark Keil and Mala Kaul
      The Telemonitoring at Visiting Nurse Health System case presents one home healthcare organization's efforts to use telemonitoring to improve the quality of care provided to at-risk patients who were discharged from hospitals and needed home care. After two years of... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Budgeting; Cost vs Benefits; Risk Management; Technology Adoption; Technological Innovation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Competitive Strategy; Health Industry; Technology Industry
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      McFarlan, F. Warren, Mark Keil, and Mala Kaul. "Telemonitoring at Visiting Nurse Health System." Harvard Business School Case 112-030, September 2011. (Revised January 2012.)
      • September 2011
      • Article

      Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas

      By: Edward J. Riedl and George Serafeim
      Using a sample of U.S. financial institutions, we exploit recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3 to test whether greater information risk in financial instrument fair values leads to higher cost of capital. We... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Assets; Cost of Capital; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Corporate Disclosure; Information; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; United States
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      Riedl, Edward J., and George Serafeim. "Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas." Journal of Accounting Research 49, no. 4 (September 2011): 1083–1122.
      • 2011
      • Chapter

      The Economics of Housing Finance Reform

      By: David S. Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam
      This paper analyzes the two leading types of proposals for reform of the housing finance system: (i) broad-based, explicit, priced government guarantees of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and (ii) privatization. Both proposals have drawbacks. Properly-priced... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Housing; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Government and Politics
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      Scharfstein, David S., and Adi Sunderam. "The Economics of Housing Finance Reform." In The Future of Housing Finance: Restructuring the U.S. Residential Mortgage Market, edited by Martin Neil Baily. Brookings Institution Press, 2011.
      • Article

      Advertising, the Matchmaker

      By: Bharat N. Anand and Ron Shachar
      We empirically study the informational role of advertising in matching consumers with products when consumers are uncertain about both observable and unobserved program attributes. Our focus is on the network television industry, in which the products are television... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Information; Consumer Behavior; Television Entertainment; Risk and Uncertainty; Product; Decision Choices and Conditions; Advertising Industry
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      Anand, Bharat N., and Ron Shachar. "Advertising, the Matchmaker." RAND Journal of Economics 42, no. 2 (Summer 2011): 205–245. (Lead Article.)
      • March 2011 (Revised March 2011)
      • Case

      Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey - Managing in the Shadow of Health Care Reform

      By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee, Raffaella Sadun and Richard G. Hamermesh
      Per the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), which President Obama signed in 2010, states would be required to create state-wide health insurance marketplaces - the Health Benefit Exchanges (HBEs) - in which individuals and small employers could choose... View Details
      Keywords: Insurance; Health Care and Treatment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Emerging Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance Industry; Insurance Industry; New Jersey
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      Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, Raffaella Sadun, and Richard G. Hamermesh. "Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey - Managing in the Shadow of Health Care Reform." Harvard Business School Case 711-403, March 2011. (Revised March 2011.)
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