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- All HBS Web (154)
- Faculty Publications (89)
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- 2024
- Working Paper
Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions
By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
We investigate whether corporate officers should grant managers discretion to override AI-driven demand forecasts and labor scheduling tools. Analyzing five years of administrative data from a large grocery retailer using such an AI tool, encompassing over 500 stores,... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Working Conditions; Performance Productivity
Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, April 2024.
- Article
Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
- March–April 2023
- Article
Pricing for Heterogeneous Products: Analytics for Ticket Reselling
By: Michael Alley, Max Biggs, Rim Hariss, Charles Herrmann, Michael Lingzhi Li and Georgia Perakis
Problem definition: We present a data-driven study of the secondary ticket market. In particular, we are primarily concerned with accurately estimating price sensitivity for listed tickets. In this setting, there are many issues including endogeneity, heterogeneity in... View Details
Keywords: Price; Demand and Consumers; AI and Machine Learning; Investment Return; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Sports Industry
Alley, Michael, Max Biggs, Rim Hariss, Charles Herrmann, Michael Lingzhi Li, and Georgia Perakis. "Pricing for Heterogeneous Products: Analytics for Ticket Reselling." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 409–426.
- November 2024
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
Ling, Xi, Wesley R. Hartmann, and Tomomichi Amano. "Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs." Management Science 70, no. 11 (November 2024): 7892–7910.
- May 1991 (Revised December 1994)
- Case
State of Connecticut Municipal Swap
By: Andre F. Perold
The state of Connecticut wants to raise $325 million of long-term fixed-rate debt. One alternative is to do this synthetically--issue long-term variable rate debt and enter into an interest rate swap. The case is a vehicle for analyzing various floating rate structures... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Taxation; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk and Uncertainty; New England
Perold, Andre F. "State of Connecticut Municipal Swap." Harvard Business School Case 291-024, May 1991. (Revised December 1994.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century
By: Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas and Stefanie Stantcheva
This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the 20th century. We use three new datasets: a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920; a dataset of the employment, location, and patents of firms... View Details
Akcigit, Ufuk, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas, and Stefanie Stantcheva. "Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 24982, September 2018. (Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Need for Speed: The Impact of Capital Constraints on Strategic Misconduct
By: F. Christopher Eaglin
Under what conditions do firms engage in strategic misconduct? Why do they undertake actions that increase profitability yet break laws or violate strong norms often with costly consequences for public welfare? The strategic management literature offers two external... View Details
Keywords: Corporate Misconduct; Capital Constraints; Organizations; Crime and Corruption; Behavior; Situation or Environment; Capital
Eaglin, F. Christopher. "The Need for Speed: The Impact of Capital Constraints on Strategic Misconduct." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-056, February 2022.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Social Influence in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Community Establishments’ Closure Decisions Follow Those of Nearby Chain Establishments
By: Abhishek Nagaraj, Mathijs de Vaan, Saqib Mumtaz and Sameer Srivastava
As conveners that bring various stakeholders into the same physical space, firms can powerfully influence the course of pandemics such as COVID-19. Even when operating under government orders and health guidelines, firms have considerable discretion to keep their... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Peer Influence; Closure Decisions; Health Pandemics; Business Ventures; Decisions; Business and Community Relations
Nagaraj, Abhishek, Mathijs de Vaan, Saqib Mumtaz, and Sameer Srivastava. "Social Influence in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Community Establishments’ Closure Decisions Follow Those of Nearby Chain Establishments." Working Paper, December 2020.
- 1980
- Article
Consumer Impulse Purchase and Credit Card Usage: An Empirical Examination Using the Log Linear Model
By: Rohit Deshpandé and S. Krishnan
Most of the work in impulse purchase behavior has investigated the association of socioeconomic variables and unplanned purchases with equivocal results. This paper examines the interrelationship between impulse purchases, credit card usage, cost of items bought, and... View Details
- June 1991
- Case
Continental Carriers, Inc.
By: W. Carl Kester
A U.S. trucking company is considering using debt for the first time to acquire another company. The directors of the company are divided in their opinion of the likely impact of leverage on Continental Carriers' performance. Their differences must be reconciled and a... View Details
Keywords: Debt Securities; Financing and Loans; Acquisition; Borrowing and Debt; Equity; Transportation Industry; United States
Kester, W. Carl. "Continental Carriers, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 291-080, June 1991.
- Forthcoming
- Article
Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing
By: Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid, Ishita Sen and Varun Sharma
We propose an equilibrium corporate bond pricing model that accommodates the heterogeneity in institutional investors' preferences and mandates in an empirically tractable way. Our model, estimated on rich holdings data, quantifies investors' preferences and demand... View Details
Keywords: Corporate Bonds; Demand Systems; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Liquidity; Bonds; Price; Investment Funds
Bretscher, Lorenzo, Lukas Schmid, Ishita Sen, and Varun Sharma. "Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing." Review of Financial Studies (forthcoming).
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- 2005
- Working Paper
Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price... View Details
- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
- June 2012
- Article
Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details
Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2, no. 1 (June 2012): 57–87.
- December 1985 (Revised August 1994)
- Case
Metromedia Broadcasting Corp.
Describes the market for high-yield, or "junk," bonds and includes summaries of academic research on the risk/return characteristics of high-yield securities. Describes the role of Drexel Burnham Lambert in the primary and secondary markets for high-yield debt.... View Details
Mason, Scott P. "Metromedia Broadcasting Corp." Harvard Business School Case 286-044, December 1985. (Revised August 1994.)
- April 2024
- Article
Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for
and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect
compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details
Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Art. 103814. Journal of Financial Economics 154 (April 2024).
- September 2003
- Case
Executive Compensation at Reckitt Benckiser plc
By: V.G. Narayanan, Krishna G. Palepu and Lisa Brem
Investors felt betrayed by the increasingly lucrative pay packages awarded to CEOs and other top executives at multinational companies. Yet, board members charged with adequately rewarding executives were forced to compete with rising packages of salaries and stock... View Details
- February 2007 (Revised May 2008)
- Supplement
Bancaja: Developing Customer Intelligence (B)
In 1996, CEO Fernando Garcia Checa wanted to make customer analytics a part of Bancaja's new strategy. Bancaja, a savings bank based in Valencia, Spain, was expanding and wanted to exploit customer information to increase commercial effectiveness. At the same time, it... View Details
Keywords: Customer Relationship Management; Credit Cards; Analytics and Data Science; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Marketing Strategy; Banking Industry; Spain
Martinez-Jerez, Francisco de Asis, and Katherine Miller. "Bancaja: Developing Customer Intelligence (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 107-066, February 2007. (Revised May 2008.)
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details
Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.