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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,379)
- News (517)
- Research (2,486)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,606)
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- September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
- Case
Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth
By: Mark Egan
As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details
Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry
Egan, Mark. "Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth." Harvard Business School Case 224-023, September 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
- April 2022
- Article
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details
- January 1982 (Revised June 1983)
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning." Harvard Business School Case 182-181, January 1982. (Revised June 1983.)
- 2013
- Case
Surveying Professional Forecasters
By: K. C. Lichtendahl and Y. Grushka-Cockayne
Lichtendahl, K. C., and Y. Grushka-Cockayne. "Surveying Professional Forecasters." University of Virginia, Darden School of Business Case UVA-QA-0805, 2013.
- 2011
- Technical Note
Scoring Expert Forecasts
By: K. C. Lichtendahl and Y. Grushka-Cockayne
Lichtendahl, K. C., and Y. Grushka-Cockayne. "Scoring Expert Forecasts." University of Virginia, Darden School of Business Technical Note UVA-QA-0772, 2011.
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
Teaching Note to 4183 View Details
- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions
By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
We investigate whether corporate officers should grant managers discretion to override AI-driven demand forecasts and labor scheduling tools. Analyzing five years of administrative data from a large grocery retailer using such an AI tool, encompassing over 500 stores,... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Working Conditions; Performance Productivity
Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, April 2024.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions
By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and... View Details
Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022. (R&R Management Science.)
- April 2010
- Supplement
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
- 21 Jul 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic
- 2008
- Working Paper
CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts
By: Rick Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal and Suraj Srinivasan
We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated with career penalties in the form of a reduced bonus, smaller equity grants, and a greater chance of forced dismissal for both CEOs and CFOs during the period 1993-2004. These results... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Management; Governing and Advisory Boards; Compensation and Benefits; Managerial Roles; Personal Development and Career
Mergenthaler, Rick, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan. "CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-014, August 2008. (Revised June 2009.)
- 24 Nov 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
Keywords: by Richard S. Ruback
- November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion." Harvard Business School Case 502-045, November 2001. (Revised September 2002.)
- 13 Apr 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting
- May 2007
- Case
Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials
Explores the process and inputs behind financial and operational forecasting in the Electronic Specialty Materials unit at Air Products and Chemicals, a global chemical company. The protagonist, John Goldberg, grapples with how to better integrate the two forecasting... View Details
Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Supply and Industry; Finance; Chemical Industry
Kulp, Susan L., Taylor Randall, Shoshanah Cohen, and Zahra Kanji. "Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials." Harvard Business School Case 107-018, May 2007.
- July – August 2008
- Article
Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
- January 1977 (Revised July 1985)
- Case
Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)
Wheelwright, Steven C. "Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)." Harvard Business School Case 677-150, January 1977. (Revised July 1985.)
- 2011
- Chapter
The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly
By: George Serafeim
Serafeim, George. "The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly." Chap. 3 in The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies: Translating Market Inefficiencies into Effective Investment Strategies, edited by Len Zacks, 63–91. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.