Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

September 2010
Article

Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman

Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details

Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States

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01 Dec 2014
News

Forecasting ’15

Health Care: Data-Driven Diagnosis Robert Wah (AMP 175, 2008) President, American Medical Association; Global Chief Medical Officer, Computer Sciences Corporation “We’re entering the third phase of health information technology. The first phase was to get off of paper... View Details

Keywords: Food Services and Drinking Places; Food Services and Drinking Places; Food Services and Drinking Places; Food Services and Drinking Places

September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
Case

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth

By: Mark Egan

As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details

Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry

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Research Summary

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)

Conducting research on new management concepts in supply chain management like CPFR. Identifying best practices in the nine-step-CPFR process. Major differences in CPFR-implementation in the U.S., Europe, South America, Asia and Africa.Linking e-marketplaces in the... View Details

01 Sep 2005
News

Predictable Surprises

Administration at HBS and is also formally affiliated with Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, Psychology Department, Center on the Environment, and Program on Negotiation. View Details

Keywords: Deborah Blagg; Business Schools & Computer & Management Training; Educational Services

January 1982 (Revised June 1983)
Case

Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Planning

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06 Feb 2015
News

Improving Weather Forecasting

Research Summary

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details

17 Oct 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing

Keywords: by Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

January 2011 (Revised March 2011)
Case

Predictive Biosciences

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and David Kiron

A small cancer diagnostics start-up is deciding whether to acquire a laboratory to make and sell its bladder cancer test or build its own manufacturing and sales team. View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Health Testing and Trials; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Development; Biotechnology Industry

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April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

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12 Mar 2013
News

Surefire Predictions and Why Doomsayers are Wrong

April 2022
Article

Predictable Financial Crises

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

2022
Working Paper

Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo

We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and... View Details

Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry

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2008
Working Paper

CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts

By: Rick Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal and Suraj Srinivasan

We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated with career penalties in the form of a reduced bonus, smaller equity grants, and a greater chance of forced dismissal for both CEOs and CFOs during the period 1993-2004. These results... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Management; Governing and Advisory Boards; Compensation and Benefits; Managerial Roles; Personal Development and Career

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