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      • Faculty Publications  (96)

      Forecasting ModelsRemove Forecasting Models →

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      • June 2012
      • Case

      Innovating at AT&T: Partnering to Lead the Broadband Revolution

      By: Lynda M. Applegate, Phillip Andrews and Kerry Herman
      In 2010, the U.S. retail market value for next-generation non-handset wirelessly-enabled devices was just over $1 billion. By 2011 it had grown 1,141% to $13.2 billion and was forecast to reach $24.7 billion in 2015. At the same time, user demand for data was surging... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation & Entrepreneurship; Team Leadership; Emerging Technologies; Business Models; Business To Business; Corporate Vision; Growth Strategy; Corporate Culture; Innovation and Invention; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Partners and Partnerships; Leadership; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Growth and Development Strategy; Globalized Firms and Management; Business Model; Technology Industry; United States
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      Applegate, Lynda M., Phillip Andrews, and Kerry Herman. "Innovating at AT&T: Partnering to Lead the Broadband Revolution." Harvard Business School Case 812-124, June 2012.
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      ~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation

      By: Matthew Weinzierl
      Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Framework; Policy; Taxation; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Efficiency; United States
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      Weinzierl, Matthew. "~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-064, January 2012. (Revised August 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18045, August 2012)
      • September 2011
      • Article

      Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas

      By: Edward J. Riedl and George Serafeim
      Using a sample of U.S. financial institutions, we exploit recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3 to test whether greater information risk in financial instrument fair values leads to higher cost of capital. We... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Assets; Cost of Capital; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Corporate Disclosure; Information; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; United States
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      Riedl, Edward J., and George Serafeim. "Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas." Journal of Accounting Research 49, no. 4 (September 2011): 1083–1122.
      • February 2011 (Revised February 2011)
      • Supplement

      The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)

      By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane
      The courseware contains information on comparable firms and transactions as well as a forecasting model using the case data. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Auctions; Market Transactions; Valuation; Service Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm P., and David Lane. "The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 211-712, February 2011. (Revised February 2011.)
      • January 2011
      • Case

      The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and David Lane
      The case describes the Risk-Reward framework that Morgan Stanley analysts use as a systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about a company rather than the traditional single point estimates. The goal of the framework is to focus the... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Business Processes; Research; Valuation
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and David Lane. "The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research." Harvard Business School Case 111-011, January 2011.
      • 2011
      • Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

      By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
      Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
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      Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
      • 2011
      • Chapter

      Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

      By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley
      This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States
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      Antras, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies." In Costs and Benefits of Regional Economic Integration in Asia, edited by Robert J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Oxford University Press, 2011.
      • September 2010
      • Article

      Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?

      By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
      Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details
      Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States
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      Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?" Management Science 56, no. 9 (September 2010): 1519–1533.
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand

      By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman
      To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Consumer Behavior; Service Delivery; Performance Expectations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Service Industry
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      Craig, Nathan, Nicole DeHoratius, and Ananth Raman. "The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand." Working Paper. (Revised January 2016.)
      • July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Profit; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 511-028, July 2010. (Revised December 2011.)
      • February 2010
      • Supplement

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis (CW)

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      This Excel worksheet contains sample problems, prebuilt Excel models to run market sizing and market share analyses, and charts and graphs which help visualize the results. It is designed to accompany Marketing Analysis Tookit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis.... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Marketing Strategy; Decisions; Strategic Planning; Market Participation; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 510-714, February 2010.
      • February 2010
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Marketers frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market and generate a sales... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Demand and Consumers; Size; Strategic Planning; Sales
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 510-081, February 2010.
      • Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth
      A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 1, no. 2 (June 2010): 117–136.
      • January 2010
      • Journal Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere
      Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West, and Christian Lebiere. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
      • January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
      • Case

      Forecasting the Great Depression

      By: Walter A. Friedman
      What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
      Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
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      Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
      • Fourth Quarter 2007
      • Article

      Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

      By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
      This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details
      Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation
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      Gray, Dale . F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk." Special Issue on Credit Analysis. Journal of Investment Management 5, no. 4 (Fourth Quarter 2007): 5–28.
      • February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
      • Supplement

      Multifactor Models (CW)

      By: Malcolm P. Baker
      Keywords: Asset Pricing; Cost of Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Performance Evaluation
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      Baker, Malcolm P. "Multifactor Models (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 207-710, February 2007. (Revised January 2008.)
      • May 2006
      • Article

      Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models

      By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
      Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Customers
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      Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
      • May 2005
      • Exercise

      Forecasting the Adoption of E-books

      By: Elie Ofek
      Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption
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      Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
      • March 2005 (Revised March 2006)
      • Background Note

      Activity-Based Costing and Capacity

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Discusses the use of budgeted rather than historical data in an activity-based costing (ABC) model and argues for calculating rates using practical capacity, not actual utilization. An ABC model need not be limited to analysis of historical data. When cost driver rates... View Details
      Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Accounting Industry
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Activity-Based Costing and Capacity." Harvard Business School Background Note 105-059, March 2005. (Revised March 2006.)
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