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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,361)
- News (511)
- Research (2,480)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,598)
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- 2011
- Chapter
The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly
By: George Serafeim
Serafeim, George. "The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly." Chap. 3 in The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies: Translating Market Inefficiencies into Effective Investment Strategies, edited by Len Zacks, 63–91. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
- 2013
- Other Teaching and Training Material
Operations Management Reading: Forecasting
By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow
This reading provides an introduction to forecasting methods. It includes a brief summary of methods based on judgment and a longer section on quantitative analysis. It also provides sample data so students can develop an understanding of concepts such as correlation,... View Details
Wheelwright, Steven C., and Ann B. Winslow. "Operations Management Reading: Forecasting." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston: Harvard Business Publishing 8042, 2013.
- 07 Jul 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Predictable Financial Crises
- May 2007
- Case
Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials
Explores the process and inputs behind financial and operational forecasting in the Electronic Specialty Materials unit at Air Products and Chemicals, a global chemical company. The protagonist, John Goldberg, grapples with how to better integrate the two forecasting... View Details
Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Supply and Industry; Finance; Chemical Industry
Kulp, Susan L., Taylor Randall, Shoshanah Cohen, and Zahra Kanji. "Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials." Harvard Business School Case 107-018, May 2007.
- October 1992 (Revised September 1993)
- Case
L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management
L.L. Bean must make stocking decisions on thousands of items sold through its catalogs. In many cases, orders must be placed with vendors twelve or more weeks before a catalog lands on a customer's doorstep, and commitments cannot be changed thereafter. As a result,... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Cost Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Demand and Consumers; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Retail Industry; United States
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management." Harvard Business School Case 893-003, October 1992. (Revised September 1993.)
- 21 Jul 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic
- January 2011 (Revised March 2011)
- Case
Predictive Biosciences
By: Thomas R. Eisenmann, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and David Kiron
A small cancer diagnostics start-up is deciding whether to acquire a laboratory to make and sell its bladder cancer test or build its own manufacturing and sales team. View Details
Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Health Testing and Trials; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Development; Biotechnology Industry
Eisenmann, Thomas R., Jeffrey J. Bussgang, and David Kiron. "Predictive Biosciences." Harvard Business School Case 811-015, January 2011. (Revised March 2011.)
- 2008
- Working Paper
CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts
By: Rick Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal and Suraj Srinivasan
We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated with career penalties in the form of a reduced bonus, smaller equity grants, and a greater chance of forced dismissal for both CEOs and CFOs during the period 1993-2004. These results... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Management; Governing and Advisory Boards; Compensation and Benefits; Managerial Roles; Personal Development and Career
Mergenthaler, Rick, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan. "CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-014, August 2008. (Revised June 2009.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions
By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and... View Details
Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022. (R&R Management Science.)
- September 2010
- Article
Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?
By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details
Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States
Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?" Management Science 56, no. 9 (September 2010): 1519–1533.
- 13 Apr 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting
- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
- 24 Sep 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts
- March 2024
- Case
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)
By: N. Louis Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
Shipley, N. Louis, and Stacy Straaberg. "Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)." Harvard Business School Case 824-057, March 2024.
- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
- September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
- Case
Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth
By: Mark Egan
As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details
Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry
Egan, Mark. "Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth." Harvard Business School Case 224-023, September 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
- April 2010
- Supplement
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
- 2010
- Working Paper
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation
Ruback, Richard S. "Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-036, October 2010.
- July – August 2008
- Article
Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
- January 1982 (Revised June 1983)
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning." Harvard Business School Case 182-181, January 1982. (Revised June 1983.)