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Publications

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  • 17 Apr 2007
  • First Look

First Look: April 17, 2007

of inventory policies, including optimal inventory policies, that can be employed in a single-stage supply chain. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-regressive Integrated Moving... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 11 Apr 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research, April 11

forthcoming Journal of Accounting & Economics Career Concerns of Banking Analysts By: Horton, Joanne, George Serafeim, and Shan Wu Abstract—We study how career concerns influence banking analysts' forecasts and how their View Details
  • 05 Feb 2008
  • First Look

First Look: February 5, 2008

ad auctions as a dynamic game of incomplete information, so we can study the convergence and robustness properties of various strategies. In particular, we consider best-response bidding strategies for a repeated auction on a single keyword, where in each round, each... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 02 Jun 2010
  • First Look

First Look: June 2

norton ariely.pdf Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers? Authors:Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman Publication:Management Science (forthcoming) Abstract Firm-level sales View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • Web

Tough Tech Ventures - Course Catalog

optimized for venture opportunities with relatively low technological and/or market uncertainty. While tough technology has the potential to transform incumbent industries and tackle our most pressing societal issues, the tough tech... View Details
  • 13 Apr 2010
  • First Look

First Look: April 13

behavior and preferences into service cost and productivity standard metrics. Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios Authors:W. Jakub Jurkek and Luis M. Viceira Publication:Review of Finance (forthcoming) Abstract We... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 09 Sep 2008
  • First Look

First Look: September 9, 2008

http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-025.pdf Deterring Online Advertising Fraud Through Optimal Payment in Arrears Authors:Benjamin G. Edelman Abstract I develop a screening model with delayed payments and probabilistic delayed observation... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 12 Feb 2008
  • First Look

First Look: February 12, 2007

mechanism, which we refer to as the "clamped second price auction mechanism," into the laboratory to determine whether it helps human subjects learn to play their optimal strategy faster than the standard second price auction... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 19 Aug 2008
  • First Look

First Look: August 19, 2008

demand to underpin the link across three features of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 21 Mar 2024
  • Blog Post

IFC India: Renewable Energy - CleanMax

India is continuing to deploy new fossil fuel power generation, largely because of (a) the tremendous energy demand forecasts of the country and (b) inadequacies in grid infrastructure and energy storage. After the office presentation, we... View Details
  • 19 Jun 2007
  • First Look

First Look: June 19, 2007

using these forecast errors and past demand realizations to predict future demand (extrapolating). Categorizing deviations from optimal inventory policies is possible if we allow the perception about demand... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 17 Sep 2013
  • First Look

First Look: September 17

impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare post-choice satisfaction from choices made by mind wandering to reason based choices and randomly assigned outcomes. Participants chose a poster by mind wandering or deliberating-or were randomly assigned a... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 23 Jun 2009
  • First Look

First Look: June 23

attention to the returns of firms that do not issue at all, suggesting that issuance is partly an attempt to cater to broad time-varying patterns in characteristics mispricing. Our approach helps forecast returns to portfolios based on... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 27 Mar 2018
  • First Look

First Look at New Research, March 27, 2018

sell-side analysts employed at state-owned brokerages issued relatively optimistic earnings forecasts and stock recommendations during these periods. This relative optimism is particularly pronounced in... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 27 May 2014
  • First Look

First Look: May 27

forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly significant predictive pooled regression slope for future quarterly returns of 0.86, whereas the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 01 Sep 2018
  • News

After the Fall

investments, enabling them to forecast higher returns and discount reported liabilities at a higher rate, making the funds appear less under-funded than they were. “The cycles of optimism and pessimism in... View Details
Keywords: Jennifer Myers; illustration by Dan Bejar; Monetary Authorities-Central Bank; Finance; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Finance; Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support; Government
  • 07 Jul 2009
  • First Look

First Look: July 7

Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts (revised) Authors:Richard Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan Abstract We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 17 Mar 2011
  • Research & Ideas

Harvard Business School Faculty Comment on Crisis in Japan

forecasted GDP growth rates for Japan by 0.5% for the first quarter of this year, and by more than 1.5% for the second quarter. The financial consequences are equally alarming. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 6.2% at the market's... View Details
Keywords: Re: Multiple Faculty
  • 01 Mar 2016
  • First Look

March 1, 2016

a model that illustrates the complementarity between infrastructure and institutions and provides conditions for whether fines, subsidies, or a combination of both are the optimal response. One point of the model is that the View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

From Brainstorm to Breakthrough: HBS IT Hackathon Inspires AI Innovations | Information Technology

identify areas requiring coverage, but this essential process can be tedious and error-prone. This raises an intriguing question: Can AI help streamline this process by analyzing code changes and automatically mapping them to the right test cases for View Details