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  • 28 Jan 2014
  • First Look

First Look: January 28

  Publications August 2013 Princeton University Press Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters By: Friedman, Walter A. Abstract—The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 19 Aug 2008
  • First Look

First Look: August 19, 2008

large-store formats, multiple-store formats and extensive channel blurring in the U.S. retail industry. Our analysis is based on aggregate segment-level data from the Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS), the Monthly Retail Trade Survey... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 17 Mar 2011
  • Research & Ideas

Harvard Business School Faculty Comment on Crisis in Japan

times the $132 billion that the 1995 Kobe earthquake did, making it one of the Japan's most costly natural disasters. Transportation disruptions and the closing of many factories throughout Japan will shrink Japanese aggregate demand and... View Details
Keywords: Re: Multiple Faculty
  • 06 Jun 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas: June 6, 2017

policy debate. Positive aggregate productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvement; however, an alternative, less emphasized explanation is between-firm selection and market reallocation, whereby competition... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 02 Mar 2015
  • Research & Ideas

‘Retail Revolution’ Excerpt: The Scale of the Ecommerce Threat

take their place and the need for stocking or tidying up merchandise at store level doesn't exist. Without a store network, real estate costs are confined to a handful of distribution centers. Inventory aggregation at a few key points of... View Details
Keywords: Re: Rajiv Lal; Retail
  • 05 Feb 2013
  • First Look

First Look: Feb. 5

earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with central boards also experience higher future growth in return-on-assets (ROA) with analysts failing to fully reflect this information in their earnings forecasts. Return prediction, growth in ROA, and... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 26 Jun 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, June 26, 2018

valuation of volatile stocks, which we contend measures the economy’s risk appetite. Our novel proxy for risk appetite explains 41% of the variation in the one-year real rate since 1970, while the valuation of the aggregate stock market... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 12 Jun 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, June 12, 2018

capital-market or product-market benefits from inclusion. Status incentives contributed to the observed performance improvement. Back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that JPX400 inclusion incentives accounted for 16% (20%) of the growth in View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 19 Jun 2007
  • First Look

First Look: June 19, 2007

demand which underpin the link between the three characteristics of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 25 Jan 2011
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 25

adoption. The "extensive" margin refers to the timing of a country's adoption of a new technology; the "intensive" margin refers to how many units are adopted (for a given size economy). At the aggregate level, our... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 11 Mar 2008
  • First Look

First Look: March 11, 2008

at Columbia University, which they had covered together, as all were alumni. They were commiserating about having to submit revised forecasts to their division heads by the end of the week. Alec Hastings, head of Global Institutional... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 08 May 2007
  • First Look

First Look: May 8, 2007

exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, prices, the national accounts, savings, and the balance of payments. We find that aid is mostly consumed, primarily... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 21 Dec 2010
  • First Look

First Look: December 21

When producing a unit of output, the content of the knowledge gained can vary dramatically from one unit to the next. This suggests that while aggregate experience in learning-by-doing is generally valuable, not all prior experience has... View Details
  • 19 Feb 2019
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, February 19, 2019

Individuals' voting preferences are modeled using a random-coefficient aggregate discrete-choice model, in which we incorporate both observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity. We find that different campaign activities have... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 04 Dec 2012
  • First Look

First Look: December 4

follow advice without understanding why the advice is correct: the average respondent does not demonstrate improved agricultural knowledge, though there is some evidence educated farmers learn from the service. Download the paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2179008... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel

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