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  • 06 Jun 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas: June 6, 2017

policy debate. Positive aggregate productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvement; however, an alternative, less emphasized explanation is between-firm selection and market reallocation, whereby competition... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 17 Mar 2011
  • Research & Ideas

Harvard Business School Faculty Comment on Crisis in Japan

times the $132 billion that the 1995 Kobe earthquake did, making it one of the Japan's most costly natural disasters. Transportation disruptions and the closing of many factories throughout Japan will shrink Japanese aggregate demand and... View Details
Keywords: Re: Multiple Faculty
  • 26 Jun 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, June 26, 2018

valuation of volatile stocks, which we contend measures the economy’s risk appetite. Our novel proxy for risk appetite explains 41% of the variation in the one-year real rate since 1970, while the valuation of the aggregate stock market... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 02 Mar 2015
  • Research & Ideas

‘Retail Revolution’ Excerpt: The Scale of the Ecommerce Threat

take their place and the need for stocking or tidying up merchandise at store level doesn't exist. Without a store network, real estate costs are confined to a handful of distribution centers. Inventory aggregation at a few key points of... View Details
Keywords: Re: Rajiv Lal; Retail
  • 01 Dec 2014
  • News

Alumni and Faculty Books for December 2014

Alumni Books Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk by Gary Antonacci (MBA 1978) (McGraw-Hill) Antonacci explains his investing method, which combines U.S. stock, non-U.S. stock, and aggregate... View Details
  • 17 Mar 2021
  • Research & Ideas

Beyond Pajamas: Sizing Up the Pandemic Shopper

When working professionals were shifting to home offices a year ago as COVID-19 was spreading, comedians and pundits predicted that people would no longer need bras and pants that aren’t stretchy. Instead customers would make room for pajamas and athleisure wear. Only... View Details
Keywords: by Ayelet Israeli, Eva Ascarza, and Laura Castrillo; Retail
  • 20 Mar 2018
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, March 20, 2018

https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=54214 forthcoming Operations Research Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization By: Ferreira, Kris J., David Simchi-Levi, and He... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 12 Jun 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, June 12, 2018

capital-market or product-market benefits from inclusion. Status incentives contributed to the observed performance improvement. Back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that JPX400 inclusion incentives accounted for 16% (20%) of the growth in View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 19 Jun 2007
  • First Look

First Look: June 19, 2007

demand which underpin the link between the three characteristics of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 01 Dec 2015
  • First Look

December 1, 2015

standard forecasting regressions reveal that increases in p*t lead to economic downturns. Second, disaster risk is priced in the cross section of U.S. equity returns. A zero-cost equity portfolio with exposure to disasters earns... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 27 Mar 2012
  • First Look

First Look: March 27

Publication:Quarterly Journal of Economics (forthcoming) Abstract We argue that social capital as proxied by trust increases aggregate productivity by affecting the organization of firms. To do this we collect new data on the... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 11 Mar 2008
  • First Look

First Look: March 11, 2008

at Columbia University, which they had covered together, as all were alumni. They were commiserating about having to submit revised forecasts to their division heads by the end of the week. Alec Hastings, head of Global Institutional... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 08 May 2007
  • First Look

First Look: May 8, 2007

exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, prices, the national accounts, savings, and the balance of payments. We find that aid is mostly consumed, primarily... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 15 Jul 2008
  • First Look

First Look: July 15, 2008

Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice Authors:Robin Greenwood, Jeremy C. Stein, and Samuel Hanson Abstract We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 25 Jan 2011
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 25

adoption. The "extensive" margin refers to the timing of a country's adoption of a new technology; the "intensive" margin refers to how many units are adopted (for a given size economy). At the aggregate level, our... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 05 Feb 2013
  • First Look

First Look: Feb. 5

earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with central boards also experience higher future growth in return-on-assets (ROA) with analysts failing to fully reflect this information in their earnings forecasts. Return prediction, growth in ROA, and... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 28 Oct 2014
  • First Look

First Look: October 28

associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but we forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model,... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 21 Dec 2010
  • First Look

First Look: December 21

When producing a unit of output, the content of the knowledge gained can vary dramatically from one unit to the next. This suggests that while aggregate experience in learning-by-doing is generally valuable, not all prior experience has... View Details
  • 19 Feb 2019
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, February 19, 2019

Individuals' voting preferences are modeled using a random-coefficient aggregate discrete-choice model, in which we incorporate both observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity. We find that different campaign activities have... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Bibliography - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections

University of Chicago Press, 1987. Merton, Robert C. , and R. D. Henriksson. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." In Journal of Business 54 (October 1981).... View Details