Filter Results
:
(85)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (85)
- Faculty Publications (29)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (85)
- Faculty Publications (29)
- 17 Mar 2011
- Research & Ideas
Harvard Business School Faculty Comment on Crisis in Japan
times the $132 billion that the 1995 Kobe earthquake did, making it one of the Japan's most costly natural disasters. Transportation disruptions and the closing of many factories throughout Japan will shrink Japanese aggregate demand and...
View Details
Keywords:
Re: Multiple Faculty
- 24 Jan 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research: January 24, 2017
earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive...
View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- 05 Mar 2013
- First Look
First Look: March 5
particularly useful for forecasting bond returns. We show that a significant decline in issuer quality is a more reliable signal of credit market overheating than rapid aggregate credit growth. We use these...
View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- 14 Nov 2017
- First Look
New Research and Ideas: November 14, 2017
probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, can all help forecast an eventual crash and future returns; and (4) some of these characteristics can...
View Details
Keywords:
Carmen Nobel
- 27 Mar 2012
- First Look
First Look: March 27
Publication:Quarterly Journal of Economics (forthcoming) Abstract We argue that social capital as proxied by trust increases aggregate productivity by affecting the organization of firms. To do this we collect new data on the...
View Details
Keywords:
Carmen Nobel
- 26 Jun 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, June 26, 2018
valuation of volatile stocks, which we contend measures the economy’s risk appetite. Our novel proxy for risk appetite explains 41% of the variation in the one-year real rate since 1970, while the valuation of the aggregate stock market...
View Details
Keywords:
Dina Gerdeman
- 02 Mar 2015
- Research & Ideas
‘Retail Revolution’ Excerpt: The Scale of the Ecommerce Threat
take their place and the need for stocking or tidying up merchandise at store level doesn't exist. Without a store network, real estate costs are confined to a handful of distribution centers. Inventory aggregation at a few key points of...
View Details
- 01 Dec 2015
- First Look
December 1, 2015
standard forecasting regressions reveal that increases in p*t lead to economic downturns. Second, disaster risk is priced in the cross section of U.S. equity returns. A zero-cost equity portfolio with exposure to disasters earns...
View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- 01 Dec 2014
- News
Alumni and Faculty Books for December 2014
Alumni Books Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk by Gary Antonacci (MBA 1978) (McGraw-Hill) Antonacci explains his investing method, which combines U.S. stock, non-U.S. stock, and aggregate...
View Details
- 12 Jun 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, June 12, 2018
capital-market or product-market benefits from inclusion. Status incentives contributed to the observed performance improvement. Back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that JPX400 inclusion incentives accounted for 16% (20%) of the growth in View Details
Keywords:
Dina Gerdeman
- 19 Jun 2007
- First Look
First Look: June 19, 2007
demand which underpin the link between the three characteristics of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving...
View Details
Keywords:
Martha Lagace
- 11 Mar 2008
- First Look
First Look: March 11, 2008
at Columbia University, which they had covered together, as all were alumni. They were commiserating about having to submit revised forecasts to their division heads by the end of the week. Alec Hastings, head of Global Institutional...
View Details
Keywords:
Martha Lagace
- 28 Oct 2014
- First Look
First Look: October 28
associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but we forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model,...
View Details
Keywords:
Carmen Nobel
- 05 Feb 2013
- First Look
First Look: Feb. 5
earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with central boards also experience higher future growth in return-on-assets (ROA) with analysts failing to fully reflect this information in their earnings forecasts. Return prediction, growth in ROA, and...
View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- 08 May 2007
- First Look
First Look: May 8, 2007
exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, prices, the national accounts, savings, and the balance of payments. We find that aid is mostly consumed, primarily...
View Details
Keywords:
Martha Lagace
- 25 Jan 2011
- First Look
First Look: Jan. 25
adoption. The "extensive" margin refers to the timing of a country's adoption of a new technology; the "intensive" margin refers to how many units are adopted (for a given size economy). At the aggregate level, our...
View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- 15 Jul 2008
- First Look
First Look: July 15, 2008
Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice Authors:Robin Greenwood, Jeremy C. Stein, and Samuel Hanson Abstract We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro...
View Details
Keywords:
Martha Lagace
- 14 Dec 2011
- Research & Ideas
The New Measures for Improving Nonprofit Performance
worked in our favor was that we had developed multiyear financial forecast models. We were dealing with bank workout teams, which is very rugged. But because we had that information, we stunned them. They didn't expect that coming from a...
View Details
Keywords:
by Julia Hanna
- 21 Dec 2010
- First Look
First Look: December 21
When producing a unit of output, the content of the knowledge gained can vary dramatically from one unit to the next. This suggests that while aggregate experience in learning-by-doing is generally valuable, not all prior experience has...
View Details
- 19 Feb 2019
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, February 19, 2019
Individuals' voting preferences are modeled using a random-coefficient aggregate discrete-choice model, in which we incorporate both observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity. We find that different campaign activities have...
View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne