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  • All HBS Web  (2,176)
    • People  (1)
    • News  (435)
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  • Article

Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates

By: J. Peter Scoblic
Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details
Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History
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Scoblic, J. Peter. "Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates." Texas National Security Review 1, no. 4 (August 2018).
  • Article

Distance and Political Boundaries: Estimating Border Effects under Inequality Constraints

By: Fernando Borraz, Alberto Cavallo, Roberto Rigobon and Leandro Zipitria
The border effects literature finds that political boundaries have a large impact on relative prices across locations. In this paper we show that the standard empirical specification suffers from selection bias, and propose a new methodology based on binned-quantile... View Details
Keywords: Border Effects; Prices
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Borraz, Fernando, Alberto Cavallo, Roberto Rigobon, and Leandro Zipitria. "Distance and Political Boundaries: Estimating Border Effects under Inequality Constraints." International Journal of Finance & Economics 21, no. 1 (January 2016): 3–35.
  • Article

Estimating the Effects of Large Shareholders Using a Geographic Instrument

Large shareholders may play an important role for firm performance and policies, but identifying this empirically presents a challenge due to the endogeneity of ownership structures. We develop and test an empirical framework, which allows us to separate selection from... View Details
Keywords: Business and Shareholder Relations; Performance; Policy; Ownership; Selection and Staffing; Business Headquarters; Geography; Framework
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Becker, Bo, Henrik Cronqvist, and Rudiger Fahlenbrach. "Estimating the Effects of Large Shareholders Using a Geographic Instrument ." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 46, no. 4 (August 2011): 907–942.
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Estimating Productivity in the Presence of Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from the U.S. Production Network

By: Ebehi Iyoha
This paper examines the extent to which productivity gains are transmitted across U.S. firms through buyer-supplier relationships. Many empirical studies measure firm-to-firm spillovers using firm-level productivity estimates derived from control function approaches.... View Details
Keywords: Supply and Industry; Partners and Partnerships; Production
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Iyoha, Ebehi. "Estimating Productivity in the Presence of Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from the U.S. Production Network." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-033, December 2023. (Winner of the Young Economists' Essay Award at the 2021 Annual Conference of the European Association for Research in Industrial Economics (EARIE))
  • 2009
  • Working Paper

Estimating the Effects of Large Shareholders Using a Geographic Instrument

By: Bo Becker, Henrik Cronqvist and Rudiger Fahlenbrach
Large shareholders may play an important role for firm performance and policies, but identifying this empirically presents a challenge due to the endogeneity of ownership structures. We develop and test an empirical framework which allows us to separate selection from... View Details
Keywords: Business Headquarters; Geographic Location; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Performance Effectiveness; Business and Shareholder Relations; Mathematical Methods
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Becker, Bo, Henrik Cronqvist, and Rudiger Fahlenbrach. "Estimating the Effects of Large Shareholders Using a Geographic Instrument." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-028, October 2009. (Revised February 2010.)
  • 1999
  • Chapter

Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model

By: Julio J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford
Keywords: Interest Rates; Mathematical Methods
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Rotemberg, Julio J., and Michael Woodford. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model." In Monetary Policy Rules, edited by John B. Taylor. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.
  • February 2015
  • Teaching Note

Grantham, Mayo, and Van Otterloo, 2012: Estimating the Equity Risk Premium

By: Samuel Hanson
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Hanson, Samuel. "Grantham, Mayo, and Van Otterloo, 2012: Estimating the Equity Risk Premium." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 215-046, February 2015.
  • October 2012 (Revised June 2015)
  • Case

Grantham, Mayo, and Van Otterloo, 2012: Estimating the Equity Risk Premium

By: Samuel Hanson, Erik Stafford and Luis Viceira
Keywords: Equity Valuation; Investment Banking; Equity
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Hanson, Samuel, Erik Stafford, and Luis Viceira. "Grantham, Mayo, and Van Otterloo, 2012: Estimating the Equity Risk Premium." Harvard Business School Case 213-051, October 2012. (Revised June 2015.)
  • 01 Jun 2020
  • Working Paper Summaries

Spreading the Health: Americans' Estimated and Ideal Distributions of Death and Health(care)

Keywords: by Sorapop Kiatpongsan and Michael I. Norton; Health
  • November 2008
  • Article

Are They Really That Happy? Exploring Scale Recalibration in Estimates of Well-being

By: H. Lacey, A. Fagerlin, G. Loewenstein, D. Smith, J. Riis and P. Ubel
Keywords: Happiness
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Lacey, H., A. Fagerlin, G. Loewenstein, D. Smith, J. Riis, and P. Ubel. "Are They Really That Happy? Exploring Scale Recalibration in Estimates of Well-being." Health Psychology 27, no. 6 (November 2008): 669–675.
  • 2007
  • Other Unpublished Work

A Strategic Model and Estimation Procedure for Lobbying on Accounting Standard Setting

By: Karthik Ramanna
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Ramanna, Karthik. "A Strategic Model and Estimation Procedure for Lobbying on Accounting Standard Setting." 2007.
  • 29 Oct 2009
  • Working Paper Summaries

Estimating the Effects of Large Shareholders Using a Geographic Instrument

Keywords: by Bo Becker, Henrik Cronqvist & Rüdiger Fahlenbrach
  • Article

Estimation of the Number of Components in Nonparametric Multivariate Finite Mixture Models

By: Caleb Kwon and Eric Mbakop
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Kwon, Caleb, and Eric Mbakop. "Estimation of the Number of Components in Nonparametric Multivariate Finite Mixture Models." Annals of Statistics 49, no. 4 (August 2021).
  • Article

Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
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Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.
  • October 1994
  • Article

Issues in the Estimation and Application of Latent Structure Models of Choice

By: Ulf Bockenholt, Melinda S. de Borrero, Ham Bozdogan, Wayne DeSarbo, William R. Dillon, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Ajith Kumar, V. Ramaswamy and Michael Zenor
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions
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Bockenholt, Ulf, Melinda S. de Borrero, Ham Bozdogan, Wayne DeSarbo, William R. Dillon, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Ajith Kumar, V. Ramaswamy, and Michael Zenor. "Issues in the Estimation and Application of Latent Structure Models of Choice." Marketing Letters 5, no. 4 (October 1994): 323–334.
  • 19 Oct 2010
  • Working Paper Summaries

The Impact of Supply Learning on Customer Demand: Model and Estimation Methodology

Keywords: by Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius & Ananth Raman; Apparel & Accessories; Fashion
  • February 2013 (Revised January 2015)
  • Supplement

Grantham, Mayo, and Van Otterloo, 2012: Estimating the Equity Risk Premium (CW)

By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Erik Stafford and Luis M. Viceira
Citation
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Hanson, Samuel Gregory, Erik Stafford, and Luis M. Viceira. "Grantham, Mayo, and Van Otterloo, 2012: Estimating the Equity Risk Premium (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 213-717, February 2013. (Revised January 2015.)
  • 2001
  • Working Paper

Using a Terrorist Attack to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime

By: Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky
Citation
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Di Tella, Rafael, and Ernesto Schargrodsky. "Using a Terrorist Attack to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 01-076, May 2001.
  • Article

Estimation and Identification of Merger Effects: An Application to Hospital Mergers

By: Leemore S. Dafny
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Dafny, Leemore S. "Estimation and Identification of Merger Effects: An Application to Hospital Mergers." Journal of Law & Economics 52, no. 3 (August 2009): 523–550.
  • Article

Best Practices in Estimating the Cost of Capital: Survey and Synthesis

By: Robert Bruner, Kenneth M. Eades, Robert S. Harris and Robert F. Higgins
This paper presents the results of a cost-of-capital survey of 27 highly regarded corporations, ten leading financial advisers, and seven best selling textbooks and trade books. The results show close alignment among all these groups on the use of common theoretical... View Details
Keywords: Cost of Capital
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Bruner, Robert, Kenneth M. Eades, Robert S. Harris, and Robert F. Higgins. "Best Practices in Estimating the Cost of Capital: Survey and Synthesis." Financial Practice and Education 8, no. 1 (Spring–Summer 1998): 13–28.
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